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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

  1. #271
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    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    They dug themselves in for the winter during the sumdurng chu affair. Also the 62 war took place at the end of October only to declare a cease fire by Nov 20.

    So i don't fully understand why they cannot be any war until then. Maybe earlier fighting was at lower altitudes.

    But if it turns out that both withdraw by Sept then maybe this affair is over. We pull out one day and they the day after, lol

    We won't escalate as the status quo ante has been reached. So the weather provides a face saving way out for both here.

    Unless it starts up again next year.
    One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.
    Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

    But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 18:08.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.
    The civilisational ties that you're talking about is being eroded and replaced by Chinese money power.

    New worry for Modi as China takes deep root in Nepal, a place where anti-India fire is so easy to fan

    The $92 billion figure in the artcile w.r.t TIA is incorrect. IIRC, it was somewhere between $70-80 million. Politics in Nepal is a mess, like what it is in SLanka. To defeat the Chinese in SE Asia, India needs to use the same civilisational ties to its advantage. Unless the Chinese lose a significant amount of their investments, they won't be leaving anytime soon. The previous 10 years of the UPA government has left foreign policy in tatters, which I hope is being corrected. For countries like Slanka and Nepal, carrot, stick, and soft coup is necessary to make them fall in line. India cannot and should not fight with China for every neighbour. The way to defeat China is with propaganda so intense that every Chinese is seen as an enemy in those countries.
    Last edited by Oracle; Today at 05:28.

  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

    But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.
    In 1962, teaching India a lesson was that return. Forget the harsh winter and maintanance of Chinese logistics.

    1967 didn't end quietly. The Chinese lost. How many Chinese actually know about 1967?

    The CPC has tight control over the media, they gag information not suited to party interests. Hence, it makes them more risk averse. They can plan for a short war and the population won't even know about it. This benefits the CPC, as world media will pick it up and the smaller neighbors would submit to Chinese hegemony.

    We have, probably, picked up the wrong hints all this time.

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