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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

  1. #226
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    How the brinksmanship with the Norks dovetails what's happening here...

    China and India on brink of armed conflict as hopes of resolution to border dispute fade | SCMP | Aug 11 2017

    Chinese military primed for battle, military sources say; Indian troops ‘prepared for any eventuality’
    PUBLISHED : Friday, 11 August, 2017, 10:03pm
    UPDATED : Friday, 11 August, 2017, 11:33pm

    Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.

    On Friday, India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day.

    Sources close to the Chinese military, meanwhile, said that the People’s Liberation Army is increasingly aware of the possibility of war, but will aim to limit any conflict to the level of skirmishes, such as those contested by India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

    “The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week”.

    Another military source said that officers and troops from the Western Theatre Command have already been told to prepare for war with India over the Doklam crisis.
    “There is a voice within the army telling it to fight because it was Indian troops that intruded into Chinese territory in Donglang [Doklam],” the second source said. “Such a voice is supported by the public.”

    Both sources said that China’s military believes any conflict will be controlled, and not spill over into other disputed areas, of which there are currently three along the 2,000km border between the two Asian giants.



    However, Indian defence experts warned that once the first shot is fired, the conflict may escalate into full-scale war. That in turn could result in New Delhi blockading China’s maritime lifeline in the Indian Ocean. “Any Chinese military adventurism will get a fitting reply from the Indian military,” Dr Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, a research associate at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told the Post.

    “Certainly, it will be detrimental for both, but if Beijing escalates [the conflict], it will not be limited. Perhaps, it may extend to the maritime domain as well,” he said.

    “If China engages in a military offensive against India, New Delhi will take all necessary measures ... [and will] respond to Chinese actions in its own way. Why only a border war? It could escalate to a full-scale India-China war,” he said.

    Rajeswari Rajagopalan, a defence analyst from the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, said that “in the event of a full-scale war, definitely India’s navy will prevent the Chinese navy from moving into the Bay of Bengal or the Indian Ocean.”

    China is heavily reliant on imported fuel and, according to figures published by state media, more than 80 per cent of its oil imports travel via the Indian Ocean or Strait of Malacca.

    Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said that India in 2010 established a naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, close to the Strait of Malacca, where the narrowest sea channel is just 1.7km wide.

    “Since 2010, India has also upgraded two airstrips on the islands to serve fighters and reconnaissance aircraft,” he said.

    “All these moves pave the way for India to be able to blockade Chinese military and commercial ships from entering the Indian Ocean in the event of a naval conflict between the two countries.”

    In July, India, the United States and Japan completed their 10-day Malabar 2017 naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal, while around the same time the US approved the US$365-million sale of military transport aircraft to India and a US$2-billion deal for surveillance drones. As a result, the Indian navy now has eight Boeing P-8A Poseidon submarine hunters patrolling in the Indian Ocean.

    Chinese and Indian troops fought a war in 1962 after a series of skirmishes heightened tensions on the border. That conflict ended largely in a stalemate, despite China’s large military advantage. However, Chaturvedy said that India has learnt lessons from its past mistakes and is now better prepared to defend itself against China.

    Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong said that both sides have underestimated each other.

    “If the border conflict expands to the sea, it will be very difficult for the PLA to defeat the Indian navy, whose capabilities are much stronger after the purchase of the P-8A Poseidon submarine hunters,” he said.

    This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as:China and India on ‘brink of armed conflict’
    Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Aug 17, at 22:24.

  2. #227
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    Fake News: Chinese National Media on the Doklam Standoff

    As the Columbia Journalism Review noted, fake news goes global today. China, where media outlets are under strict state control, is not an exception. In terms of the Doklam standoff between China and India, some of China’s national media — the Global Times in particular — has been trying to distort information and even incite local Chinese anti-India sentiment.

    Since Indian troops tried to stop the Chinese Army from building a road in the Doklam area and the two countries settled into a standoff about 50 days ago, many Chinese media outlets have published aggressive rhetoric (as have Indian media, by the way). Besides notorious tabloids and social media, some among the state-run presses often viewed as Chinese government mouthpieces have also published sensational and distorted reports about the standoff.

    A piece of this fake news puzzle is the way Chinese national media cites Indian media. As The Diplomat reported earlier, China’s Defense Ministry invited a delegation of Indian media on August 7. In the meeting, the Indian journalists had a face-to-face dialogue with high-level officers of the People’s Liberation Army. However, the defense ministry didn’t make information about the visit public to China’s domestic media. So the meeting was only widely reported by Indian media. Nevertheless, China’s national media has closely focused on the Indian press’ reports on China, especially on Doklam.

    Immediately after reports about the Defense Ministry meeting appeared in the Indian press, China’s national media selected some information in the Indian reports and translated it into Chinese. The People’s Daily mobile version published an article — “A slap in the face! Bhutan acknowledges that Doklam is a Chinese area and finds it strange that the Indian troops are on the Chinese soil”– based on the report– “Bhutan acknowledges that Doklam is a Chinese area: Chinese official”– of Press Trust of India(PTI). It is apparent that People’s Daily intentionally deleted the most important part of the headline –“Chinese official.” Even in the article itself, People’s Daily downplayed the fact that the Chinese official is the only source of the information and highlighted the Bhutan part. In the end, People’s Daily even claimed that “Bhutan acknowledges that Doklam is a Chinese area” was widely reported by Indian media. Soon, the article was reposted by the Global Times (the most hawkish Chinese state-run newspaper) and grabbed attention there. It’s noteworthy that the Global Times is actually under the People’s Daily, although the staff are different.

    Other than the above article, the Global Times has published or reposted other distorted stories, too. For example, on August 5, the Global Times cited another PTI report and produced an article: “Indian Prime Minister Modi spoke about Doklam, attempting to muddle through by dialogue.” On the same day, the People’s Daily mobile version refuted the Global Times’ article, pointing out that Modi didn’t speak about Doklam.

    What’s most worrisome is that the Global Times intentionally incited anti-Indian sentiment. On August 9, after an earthquake struck China’s southwest, the Global Times published an article, claiming that “some Indian netizens said God sent earthquake to publish China” by quoting several posts on Twitter.

    It is obvious that the Global Times found these posts by searching keywords of “China, India, earthquake” and it is highly questionable if all the remarks were posted by Indian netizens. In addition, Twitter is blocked by China’s Great Firewall so most Chinese netizens are not able to log on and double-check the information.

    No wonder even China’s Defense Ministry had to tell Indian journalists that some views reported by China’s hawkish government-run media (Global Times in particular) cannot represent the position of the Defense Ministry.

  3. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    “The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week”.
    So the PLA is expecting early casulties. What are India's air defence capabilities along the China border, apart from the Flankers?

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    “The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week”.
    Just US and allies have carried out 8000 air strikes on ISIL for the past 3 years in a flat terrain. Thousands more by Syria and Russia. The lot is still around.

    And the PLA "military insider" thinks they can dislodge 12 Indian divisions in world's largest & highest mountain terrain in a week with missile attacks?
    Last edited by n21; 12 Aug 17, at 08:17.

  5. #230
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    If India-China dispute escalates, chances are Washington will come out in support of New Delhi: US expert | PTI (syndicated) | Aug 2017

    "If China wants to pursue an assertive maritime strategy, it needs secure borders on land so it doesn't have to worry about overland aggression from its neighbours, in other words, confronting India in the Himalayas is not a purely rational course of action driven by rational cost/benefit analysis," said the professor from the US Naval War College.

    When asked why the US has remained silent so far on this issue, he said the current administration has too much on its plate.

    "It's also possible Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and his advisers don't want the United States involved in a Himalayan dispute it has little way of influencing. If the dispute escalates, chances are Washington will come out in support of New Delhi," Holmes said.

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    Last edited by Oracle; 13 Aug 17, at 15:53.

  8. #233
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Guess this is an indirect way of stating China supports them. If so then China would not want that made public. Which means China isn't supporting them and they are looking for a sponsor

    What to make of this boycott ? is it just opportunistic attention seeking when their chips are already down or more

  9. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Guess this is an indirect way of stating China supports them. If so then China would not want that made public. Which means China isn't supporting them and they are looking for a sponsor
    China does support them. The Chinese intelligence and the ISI arms and finances these groups. They are viewed as an asset to be hedged. After Bangladesh' crackdown on ISI and Bangladesh based terror groups, ISI' influence on them have been light. Not the case with China.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What to make of this boycott ? is it just opportunistic attention seeking when their chips are already down or more
    They do this every year. Security is beefed up and nothing happens. Point is, these groups hardly pose a threat to civilians now, as they did in the 90s.
    Last edited by Oracle; 14 Aug 17, at 16:11.

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  11. #236
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Military does not make policy, they enforce policy.

    The rogues if there are any are in the CCP

  12. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Military does not make policy, they enforce policy.

    The rogues if there are any are in the CCP
    Not disputing that.

    In a one party dictatorship, there can be only one dictator. Someone from the CPC might have nudged the PLA into doing something stupid to consolidate his position, like the 2014 Ladakh fiasco, while Xi was in India.

  13. #238
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Similar happened at Depsang when Wen visited in 2013

    If India is challenging a road on Bhutan's territory then what does India plan to do about existing Chinese roads over our own disputed territory POK, Aksai Chin etc.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Aug 17, at 03:14.

  14. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Similar happened at Depsang when Wen visited in 2013

    If India is challenging a road on Bhutan's territory then what does India plan to do about existing Chinese roads over our own disputed territory POK, Aksai Chin etc.
    What happened in Doklam is preventive defense.

    PoK & Aksai Chin is a no-go area right now. But incase of a clash with China, Aksai Chin is fair target, and if Pak comes to China's aid by opening up the Western frontier, PoK is a juicy target to be bombed. Defensive offence. In other words, wait for the opportune moment and then seize it. India should not make the mistake of firing first, but should be prepared well enough to punish 2 rouge nations, together.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Aug 17, at 04:21.

  15. #240
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    Rail link with NE remains snapped

    This is what worries me. Basic infrastructure fails every monsoon. These need to be upgraded/overcome on a war footing. The enemy won't wait for the monsoon to subside.

    68 ultras surrender in Manipur

    I can't keep up with all these NGOs operating in the NE.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Aug 17, at 03:34.

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