Originally posted by WABs_OOE
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Faced with this dilemma Japan let their ambitions blind them to the long term (in this context 12 months or more) consequences of such a war. Any realistic assessment of war with the US would have told them firstly that the US would win a long term struggle and secondly and most importantly, any war with the US would almost certainly be a long term commitment.
So what did they do - choose the one scenario (a short term war) that gave them exactly what they wanted to see i.e. some means of achieving all their geoploitical goals in Asia. Despite the lack of evidence.
My point is, assuming a more cool headed, realistic assessment of their chances the Japanese should have realized that attacking the US was an 'anti-survival' choice.
That being the case, withdrawal from China on the best terms possible would be their only real option. This still leaves Stalinist Russia in place as an existential threat to their existing Empire however. And dealing with that threat (if they can) also let's them expand their Empire albeit not in their preferred direction.
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