Page 34 of 35 FirstFirst ... 2526272829303132333435 LastLast
Results 496 to 510 of 514

Thread: Fall of France

  1. #496
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,545
    what would be weird is post-civil war Nationalist China. Nationalist China was never as organized as CCP China, and CKS had far more trouble keeping his people in line than Mao did, because CKS's people weren't true believers in anything but themselves.

    so I can see CKS beating the Commies (which the Japanese would not support anyway), I can see CKS beating the remnants of the Japanese puppet warlords, what I really can't see is CKS waging an offensive war to put Korea in the Chinese sphere of influence.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #497
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    977
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what I really can't see is CKS waging an offensive war to put Korea in the Chinese sphere of influence.
    I don't think he would have needed to. The Koreans would be doing it themselves. CKS would have turned a blind eye to Koreans using Chinese territories as staging grounds and a few battalions worth of howitzers might disappear here and there.

    The Japanese would quickly lose control of the country side and be restricted to big towns and roads. With China as a safe haven, there would be no way for the Japanese to destroy a Korean insurgency.

  3. #498
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,774
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    This would deny them their primary objective, China. The more time you give to CKS, the more united China would become and at the very least, adding more and more Western trained divisions to the NRA.

    Ironically, it was the 2nd Sino-Japanese War that saved the Communists. CKS had them on the ropes. Forcing CKS to defend Shanghai and other cities deny CKS the oppertunity to marshall his forces to finish the Communists.
    I'm considering an alternate history in which Japan were instead a state with at the very least ostensibly humanitarian ideals, with the POD starting in 1918/19. Like the US, it has its historical colonies, but likewise has hypocritical approach (calling a spade a spade here) of freedom and democracy at home and Empire abroad.

    Do you think Japan could make limited interventions/strikes against China for "humanitarian" reasons during the 30s/40s/50s and beyond, while making it saleable and agreeable to the Western liberal democracies?

    The covert rationale, of course, being to keep the Chinese down, weak, and divided, using the least amount of resources to inflict maximum damage on the Chinese, divide their attention, play them off against each other, while making it impossible for one Chinese faction to prevail against the other(s)?
    Last edited by Ironduke; 14 Apr 18, at 02:56.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  4. #499
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    977
    Without committing to a Battle of Annhilation, ie the Battle of Shanghai when CKS lost his German trained divisions and officer corps, it would simply be pin pricks. The Japanese would be allowing the Chinese to recover and learned from their mistakes. Do recall that the Japanese also sufferred around 100,000 casualties at Shanghai. So, it's no picnic and then withdrawing would allow the Chinese to set up better defences the next time around.

  5. #500
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,774
    What if Japan were to pursue strategic bombing/naval shelling with more limited ground deployments, akin to the US with the USMC/USN during the Banana Wars, under the guise of upholding international law and intervening for humanitarian purposes, while keeping their 1919 Empire intact? Do you see any scenarios in which Japan could possibly make themselves seen as the aggrieved party, an innocent victim, defending themselves against a revisionist, threatening power than is Nationalist/Communist China, thus eliciting Western sympathies and possible military aid/assistance?

    I'm fully aware I'm going into way too many butterflies territory here.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 14 Apr 18, at 03:43.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  6. #501
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,545
    Do you see any scenarios in which Japan could possibly make themselves seen as the aggrieved party, an innocent victim, defending themselves against a revisionist, threatening power than is Nationalist/Communist China, thus eliciting Western sympathies and possible military aid/assistance?
    way too late by 1919.

    japan was acknowledged as another imperial player by 1895 and as a Power by 1905. not so coincidentally, the last time the Western powers saw Japan in a nice way was in 1894, when they were seen as the underdogs against China.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  7. #502
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,774
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    way too late by 1919.

    japan was acknowledged as another imperial player by 1895 and as a Power by 1905. not so coincidentally, the last time the Western powers saw Japan in a nice way was in 1894, when they were seen as the underdogs against China.
    The UK and France were both imperial powers as well - and Germany was Versailled and lost all of their colonial possessions to the forementioned, but when Germany got revisionist and revanchist, the UK/France were the liberal democracies and Germany was the bad guy (which Hitler and the Nazis certainly were, in fact).

    Why couldn't CKS or Mao be seen as the Hitler, and Japan as the status quo rational actor? Was it already that much of a foregone conclusion, a perception that was truly irreversible, by 1919?
    Last edited by Ironduke; 14 Apr 18, at 22:54.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  8. #503
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,545
    The Japanese would quickly lose control of the country side and be restricted to big towns and roads. With China as a safe haven, there would be no way for the Japanese to destroy a Korean insurgency.
    Yalu is a pretty good cut-off point, so that'd make it different than Vietnam or Afghanistan. the leadership could run away to China but you're not going to get major formations crossing over.

    moreover, considering the number of casualties Japan took against China, pretty sure Japan would be OK tolerating what would be a far smaller and easier to contain Korean insurgency...a lot less Koreans than there are Chinese. they could probably do a Boer War strategy or what CKS did against Mao; build a bunch of forts in the countryside and slowly strangle/attrite the insurgents.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  9. #504
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,545
    The UK and France were both imperial powers as well - and Germany was Versailled and lost all of their colonial possessions to the forementioned, but when Germany got revisionist and revanchist, the UK/France were the liberal democracies and Germany was the bad guy (which Hitler and the Nazis certainly were, in fact).
    big difference between Germany and UK/France was that Germans essentially wanted to overturn the post-Napoleonic understanding. and to be frank, they wanted to treat fellow Europeans the way Europeans treated...oh, everyone brown or yellow.

    same thing with the Japanese case; Japan wanted to overturn the existing balance of power in Asia, throw out the Europeans and establish overlordship over China. that had been clear since 1895.

    China in 1919 was in the middle of slagging down in civil war, and Chiang Kaishek was a rebel in south China.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #505
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    977
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    Yalu is a pretty good cut-off point, so that'd make it different than Vietnam or Afghanistan. the leadership could run away to China but you're not going to get major formations crossing over.
    Are you forgetting the real history the People's Volunteer Army numbering 200,000 snuck in under MacArthur's nose?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    moreover, considering the number of casualties Japan took against China, pretty sure Japan would be OK tolerating what would be a far smaller and easier to contain Korean insurgency...a lot less Koreans than there are Chinese. they could probably do a Boer War strategy or what CKS did against Mao; build a bunch of forts in the countryside and slowly strangle/attrite the insurgents.
    I'm less concerned about Japanese casualties than Japanese LOCs under threat. In the real history, the PVA managed 4 times to outrunned Eighth Army in order to block Eighth Army's retreat, with the last one being a company size force. We can assume the Koreans would be no less determined into inflicting major losses.

    What I can see are Diem Bien Phus all over the place.

  11. #506
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    977
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    What if Japan were to pursue strategic bombing/naval shelling with more limited ground deployments, akin to the US with the USMC/USN during the Banana Wars,
    Japanese strategic bombing sucked.

  12. #507
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    11,774
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    big difference between Germany and UK/France was that Germans essentially wanted to overturn the post-Napoleonic understanding. and to be frank, they wanted to treat fellow Europeans the way Europeans treated...oh, everyone brown or yellow.

    same thing with the Japanese case; Japan wanted to overturn the existing balance of power in Asia, throw out the Europeans and establish overlordship over China. that had been clear since 1895.

    China in 1919 was in the middle of slagging down in civil war, and Chiang Kaishek was a rebel in south China.
    It may have been more apt to say, couldn't whomever the alternate historical CKS/Mao equivalent had been, be seen and portrayed as a Hitler? Obviously given this many butterflies, the who's who of historical figures might have changed, but given long-term macrohistorical trends, there may have albeit been different persons with much the same personality, ambitions, etc. With the 1917 Russian Revolution, there would still be the inspiration for communist revolutionaries in China, for example.

    But, you've already answered my broader questions, and I'm obviously not a China watcher, so I'll have to cede the point to you and the Colonel on this one.

    It's interesting to think though if things could have turned out differently, if Japan had played the long game and not gambled all-or-nothing like the Germans did. There probably would have needed to have been a much earlier POD than 1919, in which the parliamentary system of civilian government prevailed and the Japanese military was subordinate to civilian control instead of functioning as a state within a state.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 14 Apr 18, at 04:42.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  13. #508
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,545
    Are you forgetting the real history the People's Volunteer Army numbering 200,000 snuck in under MacArthur's nose?
    yeah but MacArthur didn't have full control of the border when the PVA came in. in this case, the korean insurgents would have to sneak past a patrolled river. can be done, just not huge joblots.

    n the real history, the PVA managed 4 times to outrunned Eighth Army in order to block Eighth Army's retreat, with the last one being a company size force. We can assume the Koreans would be no less determined into inflicting major losses.

    What I can see are Diem Bien Phus all over the place.
    as long as IJA can bring heavy arty to bear, i don't think they need to fear Diem Bien Phus.

    basically you'd be talking about a light infantry army, at best, overrunning an army that would have air support, naval support, heavy arty, etc.

    can be done...but I think the Koreans would run out of people before the Japanese did.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  14. #509
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    977
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    yeah but MacArthur didn't have full control of the border when the PVA came in. in this case, the korean insurgents would have to sneak past a patrolled river. can be done, just not huge joblots.
    Considering the drug trade between North Korea and China right now, I think you're over-estimating IJA capabilities. Also, any force the IJA places on the border will have a corresponding Chinese force staring back at them.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    as long as IJA can bring heavy arty to bear, i don't think they need to fear Diem Bien Phus.
    Only in set piece battles against entrenched forces. You are seriously over-estimating Japanese artillery.

    http://www.lonesentry.com/articles/t...artillery.html

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    basically you'd be talking about a light infantry army, at best, overrunning an army that would have air support, naval support, heavy arty, etc.
    The IJA and the IJN did not have the know how of the USArmy nor the USN, let alone their capabilities. Even still, Eighth Army and 7th Fleet did not stopped the PVA.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    can be done...but I think the Koreans would run out of people before the Japanese did.
    You're missing the point. The Koreans don't have to overrun the Japanese positions. They just have to cut it off. Could the Japanese have stopped the PVA's 2nd and 3rd Offensives?

    Come to think of it, how would the IJA stop 200,000 Koreans armed with Chinese artillery from storming over the Yalu using Mongol/PVA tactics?
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 14 Apr 18, at 16:30.

  15. #510
    Staff Emeritus
    Military Professional
    Contrary by Nature.
    zraver's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 Oct 06
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    14,918
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    way too late by 1919.

    japan was acknowledged as another imperial player by 1895 and as a Power by 1905. not so coincidentally, the last time the Western powers saw Japan in a nice way was in 1894, when they were seen as the underdogs against China.
    UK saw them as a worthwhile ally in 1902. The alliance was still going strong till the end of WWI.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 17 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 17 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. The Fall of Pelosi?
    By Ironduke in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 15 May 09,, 22:15
  2. The Fall Of Rome?
    By Ironside in forum Ancient, Medieval & Early Modern Ages
    Replies: 61
    Last Post: 26 May 06,, 02:47
  3. The Fall of Communism
    By Leader in forum Multimedia & Jukebox room
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 26 Jul 05,, 10:40
  4. The fall of France
    By tarek in forum International Politics
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 27 Sep 04,, 23:26

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •