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Thread: Fall of France

  1. #421
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    I'm sorry but I could not find your question in your post. Could you clarify?

  2. #422
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Sorry to restate;

    'Assuming for arguments sake the Japanese had been in a position to learn the lessons you referred to, how do they apply them in South East Asia?' (Given the difficulties I highlighted.) This in turn lead to the swimming in treacle comparison i.e. outside of the winter months fighting battles of maneuver on the Eastern front was an order of magnitude easier than similar campaigns in SEA.
    Last edited by Monash; 18 Feb 18, at 21:04.

  3. #423
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    If all else stays the same? Equipment? Numbers? They wouldn't invade SE Asia. They couldn't invade SE Asia. Deep Battle or its smaller little brother, Blitzkreig drinks fuel and eats ammo like teenage boys losing their virginity. That fuel and ammo went to the IJN in their campaign against Australia and the US. Also, these are extremely manpower and firepower intensive doctrines. For Deep Battle, you're essentially massing the forces for 3 seperate battles. Again, using the Manchurian Campaign as the example, each one of those 3 Fronts was capable of fighting the Kwantung Army to a standstill, if not overwhelming them. When the Kwantung Army pushed back the North Front, the East and West Fronts had already smashed their rear and surrounded the Kwantung Army. The Japanese had a choice. They could have choose to surrender or to die. In 1945, they chosed surrender. In 1939, they chosed death. The Soviets couldn't care less which.

    With the LOCs the IJA had, there was really only one way to defeat Bill Slim's BIA and that was to build roads, ie a Ho Chi Minh Trail, and then use whatever mules they had, vehicle, animal, or human, to drag artillery and ammo to the isolated BIA boxes and set up AAA points to protect against bombers.

    But then, the IJA was destroying the very thing that would be vital for this to be successful, local support.

  4. #424
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    on a completely different tangent, i really wonder what would have happened had Stalin went completely paranoid/nutso in May 1945 and decided to try to drive the Western Allies out of Europe.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #425
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    on a completely different tangent, i really wonder what would have happened had Stalin went completely paranoid/nutso in May 1945 and decided to try to drive the Western Allies out of Europe.
    I think we'd be calling England Airstrip One.

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    on a completely different tangent, i really wonder what would have happened had Stalin went completely paranoid/nutso in May 1945 and decided to try to drive the Western Allies out of Europe.
    He would have lost badly. The VVS had become a very good tactical air force at low levels. It had nothing to oppose the bomber streams that would have hammered his logistics in Poland and Eastern Europe. Even in the low level tactical battle, it would have lost. The combined US/Uk air forces dwarfed the VVS in terms of numbers and by 45 our front line ADA units were using proximity fuses. On the ground the Red Army was strong, but tired and after Berlin was very low on supplies and many of his best units were fought out. They would be hitting a force of 91 divisions numbering over 4 million troops with in excess of 10,000 tanks and 60,000 artillery pieces plus 25,000 plus combat aircraft. The Soviets had more divisions, but not more men or equipment.

    If the war went on for any length of time his supplies of high octane av gas, chemicals and explosives would dry up as LL shipments ceased. He could make replacement tanks at will, but his chemicals industry was in shambles and depended on western imports. The allies would have been hampered in any pursuit of defeated Red Army forces by the same destroyed logistics lines and the need to supply the civilian population of Western Europe but at least they had supplies to bring in.

  7. #427
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    If all else stays the same? Equipment? Numbers? They wouldn't invade SE Asia. They couldn't invade SE Asia. Deep Battle or its smaller little brother, Blitzkreig drinks fuel and eats ammo like teenage boys losing their virginity. That fuel and ammo went to the IJN in their campaign against Australia and the US. Also, these are extremely manpower and firepower intensive doctrines. For Deep Battle, you're essentially massing the forces for 3 seperate battles. Again, using the Manchurian Campaign as the example, each one of those 3 Fronts was capable of fighting the Kwantung Army to a standstill, if not overwhelming them. When the Kwantung Army pushed back the North Front, the East and West Fronts had already smashed their rear and surrounded the Kwantung Army. The Japanese had a choice. They could have choose to surrender or to die. In 1945, they chosed surrender. In 1939, they chosed death. The Soviets couldn't care less which.

    With the LOCs the IJA had, there was really only one way to defeat Bill Slim's BIA and that was to build roads, ie a Ho Chi Minh Trail, and then use whatever mules they had, vehicle, animal, or human, to drag artillery and ammo to the isolated BIA boxes and set up AAA points to protect against bombers.

    But then, the IJA was destroying the very thing that would be vital for this to be successful, local support.
    If the Japanese learn maneuver warfare by 1939, they could win in China and use its resources and location to invade SE Asia.

  8. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    If the Japanese learn maneuver warfare by 1939, they could win in China and use its resources and location to invade SE Asia.
    Japanese manpower was at its limits. Japanese commanders were complaining that they were weaker after Operation ICHI-GO than before because they were controlling too much territory.

  9. #429
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    on a completely different tangent, i really wonder what would have happened had Stalin went completely paranoid/nutso in May 1945 and decided to try to drive the Western Allies out of Europe.
    Some interesting variable open up. Completely agree with Z and OOE that it would have ended badly for the Russians for the reasons stated. However assuming Stalin have a' brain fart' and decided launch such an offensive more or less immediately after the surrender of Germany he would have been doing so with tired troops at the end of extended and makeshift supply lines. Wait 12 months or so and it might be another story but that's a different scenario.

    Interestingly assuming the Russians did attack in May or 45 the Yalta agreement goes out the window. Which means the Allies are in a position to offer Japan a better deal than 'unconditional surrender'. They could for instance say 'well, you've lost our territories in China, Taiwan and Korea but we'll let you keep Manchuria and you get to keep the Emperor if you surrender immediately and agree to lose your navy for the foreseeable future'. (No biggy since there's not much left anyway.) Importantly they would also have to accept temporary occupation of the home Islands PLUS provide assistance with the deployment of Allied troops into Manchuria and the Russian Far East for the purpose of opening a 2nd front against Russia.

    Simplistic in the extreme I know but then its highly unlikely that Stalin would be that stupid anyway.
    Last edited by Monash; Today at 11:09.

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