BF,
the official invasion of China had been underway for four years when Japan did their colony grab. the unofficial invasion had started five years before that, in 1932, when Japan turned Manchuria into a puppet state. the unofficial invasion was a walkover, and even the official invasion had been pretty successful. Shanghai and Nanjing in 1937 were not easy campaigns for the Japanese but in the end, they were successful and took an enormous toll on the NRA. CKS lost his best German-trained units in the defense of Shanghai, and it took him almost two years to rebuild.
the Japanese had no idea that France and the Netherlands would fall to Germany, and the Japanese most certainly wouldn't have taken on the British if the UK wasn't already fighting for her life.
also the Japanese mostly had no idea that the Americans would CARE so much about China, and of the Japanese who did have an idea, they ACTIVELY wanted a war with the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Panay_incident
keep in mind that the US army was absolutely minuscule in 1940/1941-- Portugal had a larger army than the US. the Pacific Fleet was a respectable size but the IJN was larger.
and they were all crewed by inexperienced, materialistic weak Americans whom would give up with one blow of the Yamato spirit, lol.
so from their POV, it would be easy to smash the Americans, eliminate their oil/rubber bottleneck, and then concentrate on the Chinese.
That makes the decision to invade China look even more foolish in hindsight, if the US would have been prepared to stand by while Japan grabbed those colonies.
the Japanese had no idea that France and the Netherlands would fall to Germany, and the Japanese most certainly wouldn't have taken on the British if the UK wasn't already fighting for her life.
also the Japanese mostly had no idea that the Americans would CARE so much about China, and of the Japanese who did have an idea, they ACTIVELY wanted a war with the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Panay_incident
Modern historians have gone back and analyzed the attack. Many now believe that the attack may have been intentional. According to John Prados, Navy cryptographers had intercepted and decrypted traffic relating to the attacking planes which clearly indicated that they were under orders during the attack and that it had not been a mistake of any kind. This information was not released at the time for obvious secrecy reasons. Writer Nick Sparks believes that the chaos in Nanking created an opportunity for renegade factions within the Japanese army who wanted to force the US into an active conflict so that the Japanese could once and for all drive the US out of China.
and they were all crewed by inexperienced, materialistic weak Americans whom would give up with one blow of the Yamato spirit, lol.
so from their POV, it would be easy to smash the Americans, eliminate their oil/rubber bottleneck, and then concentrate on the Chinese.
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