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Thread: OPEC ponders how to co-exist with U.S. shale oil

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxes View Post
    Perhaps, i shouldn't have talked in absolutes => "nothing to do with US Gov.".
    For sure the government does have a sway with permits, tax and subsidies, but nothing like a Rosneft or Gasprom that reports to the Kremlin or an Aramco to reports to Riyadh.


    Market forces and the CEO's fiduciary responsibility to maximize shareholder value drives shale producers (and Big Oil)'s decision when it comes to investment, IRR, production rate etc etc.
    Cannot say the something for the state-own players.

    Would have Sechin sold a portion of the crown jewel Rosneft to Qatar IA and Glencore without the blessing of the Kremlin ? no.
    Point taken, but some would say thats because the real power in the US is corporate

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Point taken, but some would say thats because the real power in the US is corporate
    Corporations have more influence in the US than in many countries due to their ability to lobby legislators for favorable policy. That said they don't hold the "real" power. Just looking at how corporate America responds anxiously to Trump's ramblings on twitter is plenty of indication of where the power truly lies.

    At the end of the day, Corporations have no hard power to enforce their wishes, they have to convince the US Government to do that on their behalf and they have to play within the US system rather than make their own rules.

    Working in Public Health, we have the power to shut down any corporation in the city. If we declare an area to be under quarantine, law enforcement is obligated ensure it is enforced and no unauthorized personnel enter or exit the area. The corporate entity can try to challenge the order through the courts, and may eventually get it overturned, but if they were to try to challenge it physically the National Guard shows up with heavy armor and helicopters to make Uncle Sam's position abundantly clear.

  3. #18
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    Corporations have more influence in the US than in many countries due to their ability to lobby legislators for favorable policy. That said they don't hold the "real" power. Just looking at how corporate America responds anxiously to Trump's ramblings on twitter is plenty of indication of where the power truly lies.

    At the end of the day, Corporations have no hard power to enforce their wishes, they have to convince the US Government to do that on their behalf and they have to play within the US system rather than make their own rules.

    Working in Public Health, we have the power to shut down any corporation in the city. If we declare an area to be under quarantine, law enforcement is obligated ensure it is enforced and no unauthorized personnel enter or exit the area. The corporate entity can try to challenge the order through the courts, and may eventually get it overturned, but if they were to try to challenge it physically the National Guard shows up with heavy armor and helicopters to make Uncle Sam's position abundantly clear.
    A well reasoned explanation and yet the US president is let think ...hmmm could he be corporate???? I admire the aspirations of the American people and yet as with any system there are flaws to let the wolf in.

  4. #19
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    A well reasoned explanation and yet the US president is let think ...hmmm could he be corporate???? I admire the aspirations of the American people and yet as with any system there are flaws to let the wolf in.
    I don't recall Trump's antics on twitter affecting the stock market prior to his political ascendancy. His role in the US government gives him vastly more power than he ever had as Trump the corporate boss.

    Now to see if he ever learns how to wield it effectively...

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    I don't recall Trump's antics on twitter affecting the stock market prior to his political ascendancy. His role in the US government gives him vastly more power than he ever had as Trump the corporate boss.

    Now to see if he ever learns how to wield it effectively...
    and in summary .....please read the above ...lol

  6. #21
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    I don't recall Trump's antics on twitter affecting the stock market prior to his political ascendancy. His role in the US government gives him vastly more power than he ever had as Trump the corporate boss.

    Now to see if he ever learns how to wield it effectively...
    I don't think the stock market cares about Trump personally. But it does like the fact that the GOP are in charge in the WH, House of Rep and the Senate. Financial market understands that it is the pro-growth internationalist (likes of G. Cohen) that hold sway over the isolationist camp (Bannon). Trump may even be impeached, and I believe the market will have no more than a slight correction before resuming its upward trajectory into the overvaluation.

    That said Market does fear the likes of Sanders or Bannon, if ever they were in power. Two very different people with two very different agenda, but bad for growth.
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxes View Post
    I don't think the stock market cares about Trump personally.
    Does anybody?

  8. #23
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Does anybody?
    Yes, the second in line of the Saudi throne takes him seriously. In fact, he took him so seriously that he architected the rift with Qatar. He missed the point that Trump is all about showmanship. First his never ending war with Yemen and now this. The crown prince wants to run without first learning how to walk. Good for him as he has aspiration, but his stance against Qatar will actually backfire as will his rhetoric of wanting to hit Iran. The lad is no Bismarck.

    Funny, though Riyadh calls Qatar a sponsor of terrorism (not a false claim). With US CENTCOM being based there, what does that make the Americans: state-sponsoring terrorism ? what the world has come to.
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxes View Post
    Yes, the second in line of the Saudi throne takes him seriously. In fact, he took him so seriously that he architected the rift with Qatar. He missed the point that Trump is all about showmanship. First his never ending war with Yemen and now this. The crown prince wants to run without first learning how to walk. Good for him as he has aspiration, but his stance against Qatar will actually backfire as will his rhetoric of wanting to hit Iran. The lad is no Bismarck.

    Funny, though Riyadh calls Qatar a sponsor of terrorism (not a false claim). With US CENTCOM being based there, what does that make the Americans: state-sponsoring terrorism ? what the world has come to.
    Would that be the now 1st in line?

  10. #25
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    yes,
    listen closely ... can you hear the war drums
    Hey at least, it is going to make Aramco have a better IPO at a higher valuation
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxes View Post
    With US CENTCOM being based there, what does that make the Americans: state-sponsoring terrorism ? what the world has come to.
    Does an American base in a foreign country make the Americans a sponsor, an occupier, or just a tenant?

    Paying rent for a facility doesn't give Washington's blessing to everything Qatar's Emir does. Then again, Germany has military installations in both Florida and New Mexico in the US, perhaps we should start talking about the "German sponsored US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan"...

  12. #27
    Padishah Shahanshah Senior Contributor xerxes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    Does an American base in a foreign country make the Americans a sponsor, an occupier, or just a tenant?

    Paying rent for a facility doesn't give Washington's blessing to everything Qatar's Emir does. Then again, Germany has military installations in both Florida and New Mexico in the US, perhaps we should start talking about the "German sponsored US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan"...
    And you would be correct.
    On that basis specifically that is not a good reason.
    If we contrast the rapid progress of this mischievous discovery of gunpowder with the slow and laborious advances of reason, science, and the arts of peace, a philosopher, according to his temper, will laugh or weep at the folly of mankind. - Edward Gibbon

  13. #28
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    Then again, Germany has military installations in both Florida and New Mexico in the US, perhaps we should start talking about the "German sponsored US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan"...
    Where?

    They have training squadrons stationed at Holloman AFB and NAS P-Cola. These are Tenant Training Units under the operational command of the USAF
    Its called Tourist Season. So why can't we shoot them?

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