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  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Possible. $65bn in Venezuela seems frozen for the moment.

    Trump introduces a lot of uncertainty and the smartest thing for both India & China to do is set aside their differences and work out ways to offset any global turbulence.

    Listening to Nalalpat in his latest. He says CPEC is a charity project advocated by the Chinese military who likes the Pak military.

    Chinese make a lot of money with their dealings in India. China will lose a lot of money with its dealings in Pakistan.

    Chinese military seems to love losing money. Most normal Chinese love making money.

    Does China want to have dealing with a country where its investments can make profits or continue to support a country whose wahabi mindset considers Chinese to be the children of the devil.

    Chinese drink alcohol - check
    Eat pork - check
    Women dress liberally - check
    Not religious - check

    The sociological implications of Chinese in Pakistan are interesting.
    The Chinese military don't own that money, so I'm assuming someone at the top hierarchy of the CCP is in agreement. The point to note here is - how much are the Chinese willing to lose on unstable states? There has to be a limit, the Chinese doesn't have a bottomless pit of forex reserves to dole out to a failed islamic jihadi country like Pakistan.

    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    yes, i think that looks like the plan. The NE is the test case. Working with Bangladesh with Hasina in charge will be easier

    The GT article referenced.

    This is about fixing sociological perceptions between India & China

    There is this crazy duality that exists in India. Where a cat is in the box and at the same time not there also.

    Wow!
    The idea is good. Let's see where this goes.

    This is the 5th year of the BJP Government that I have voted for, and I have mostly heard grand names of projects launched or those that would be launched, but don't see much activity on the ground. Big project names alone won't propel the BJP to power. The Hindu consolidated votes, that got them to power in 2014, is flickering. Majority of Hindus vote for development, not for banning beef or alcohol, or hitting the poor hard by banning slaughterhouse in UP (hides and meat). This tide can change very soon.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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    • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
      The Chinese military don't own that money, so I'm assuming someone at the top hierarchy of the CCP is in agreement. The point to note here is - how much are the Chinese willing to lose on unstable states? There has to be a limit, the Chinese doesn't have a bottomless pit of forex reserves to dole out to a failed islamic jihadi country like Pakistan.
      Out of $60bn+ promised i understand that around $20bn is committed already for CPEC. How well that goes will determine whether more arrives or not. There is a natural limit to how much Pakistan can absorb.

      The idea is good. Let's see where this goes.

      This is the 5th year of the BJP Government that I have voted for, and I have mostly heard grand names of projects launched or those that would be launched, but don't see much activity on the ground. Big project names alone won't propel the BJP to power. The Hindu consolidated votes, that got them to power in 2014, is flickering. Majority of Hindus vote for development, not for banning beef or alcohol, or hitting the poor hard by banning slaughterhouse in UP (hides and meat). This tide can change very soon.
      Did you read part 1 of the Crabtree interview you linked to earlier ?

      200 seats seems like the expected number. What Nalapat has been critiquing is a govt that made such a big deal about corruption hasn't got a lot of scalps to boast about. Unless they can catch some big fish and soon say Nov to Jan. That will be the difference whether they get 200 or 300 seats in the next general election
      Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Aug 18,, 22:30.

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      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Out of $60bn+ promised i understand that around $20bn is committed already for CPEC. How well that goes will determine whether more arrives or not. There is a natural limit to how much Pakistan can absorb.
        Do you have a citation for the $20 Billion already committed? Read a year ago, that the size Paks economy is - it can only absorb $2B annually. If it's $2B, Paks need 30 years to absorb $60B.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Did you read part 1 of the Crabtree interview you linked to earlier ?

        200 seats seems like the expected number. What Nalapat has been critiquing is a govt that made such a big deal about corruption hasn't got a lot of scalps to boast about. Unless they can catch some big fish and soon say Nov to Jan. That will be the difference whether they get 200 or 300 seats in the next general election
        I did. But I don't take articles regarding election numbers seriously at this point in time. Things might change at the last minute.

        Corruption was a pre-election joomla. Like how RahulG keeps parroting Hindutva now. Nobody remembers corruption as a poll-promise, if the economy is on an upward spiral. And that means jobs are being created and positions filled. Look at how useless desi organisations have kicked up a storm regarding the Walmart-Flipkart deal. It unnerves investors. And what about minority appeasement that PM Modi said before the elections? Now see what the Jains are demanding. They don't eat meat, fine, nobody is forcing meat down their throats. But why is the Government accepting ludicrous suggestions from these assholes? Truth is, Modi government has bent backwards to accommodate desi thugs who have only religion on their mind, with no idea how the country is run, how jobs are created, and how the poor feed themselves. And I bet, none of those idiots are poor.
        Last edited by Oracle; 20 Aug 18,, 21:34.
        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
          Do you have a citation for the $20 Billion already committed? Read a year ago, that the size Paks economy is - it can only absorb $2B annually. If it's $2B, Paks need 30 years to absorb $60B.
          Can't remember an impression over numerous articles

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          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Can't remember an impression over numerous articles
            Got it. China has spent over $18.5B since 2015. Check this - As part of CPEC, 'Chinese only’ colony coming up in Pakistan
            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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            • Why Pakistan may end up as a Chinese colony with CPEC by 2030

              Older, 2 years.
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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              • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                Got it. China has spent over $18.5B since 2015. Check this - As part of CPEC, 'Chinese only’ colony coming up in Pakistan
                I too was under the impression that Pakistan could absorb at the most $2bn/yr so i thought they were commitments meaning complete in the future. That is $20bn has been agreed for projects that will take ten years to complete. 2015 -2025

                But i've seen articles that imply that much has been spent and those projects are complete already which is faster that i expected.

                That article is exaggerating this colony business. 5000 Chinese in a gated area of Gwadar does not a colony make. Western oil companies had the same thing in the early years in the Gulf.

                A discussion i watched recently mentioned 91% of the revenue from Gwadar will be going to China for the next 40 years. Gwadar port authority the people that run it only get 9%. He mentioned the interest rate might be 3% but the loans are insured for future debt obligations for an additional 6%. So those premiums amount to a few hundred million every year. If a $1bn loan is made, that amounts to $2bn to be repaid over the next twenty years. Before any money from this loan can be received $120 million insurance premium has to be paid to the chinese insurance company that insured the loan
                Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Aug 18,, 11:23.

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                • The article I linked says 5,00,000 not 5,000.
                  Western oil companies had communist dictatorships in their home governments, trying to ride the imperialist global gravy-train? Can you come up with better examples?
                  Last edited by Oracle; 21 Aug 18,, 13:35.
                  Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                  • 'We cannot afford this': Malaysia pushes back on China's big projects

                    Snippets:
                    “China knows very well that it had to deal with unequal treaties in the past imposed upon China by Western powers,” Mahathir added, referring to the concessions China had to give after its defeat in the opium wars. “So China should be sympathetic toward us. They know we cannot afford this.”
                    “I am worried that our sovereignty has been sold,” Fuziah said.
                    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                    • 'CPEC is not a gift': Professor Jia Yu at the CPEC 2018 Summit

                      THE economic relations between the two countries have been phenomenal, especially since the turn of the century. Early economic cooperation was based on political and security interests, like Karakoram Highway, nuclear capability, arms trade etc. Also, it was focussed on energy and mining, but there is now a need for diversification. Pakistan has to take advantage of China’s rise on the global scene. There is a tendency towards having even better economic relations based on market forces and there is a lot of under-exploited potential.

                      When it comes to win-win cooperation, of course there is a lot at stake for both countries. Pakistan’s interests lie in promoting growth, private sector investment, employment, exports, technology and transfer of skills as well as in the relocation of Chinese firms. China’s interests lie in overseas production bases, new export markets, energy cooperation, and its need for production capacity relocation.

                      A successful execution of CPEC will ensure economic progress and stability for both the countries, particularly along the border region.

                      The two countries signed the FTA in 2006 which came in to effect a year later. The FTAs play a major role in the general tendency of increasing trade. Surprisingly, the trade has been relatively low compared to the other neighbours (India, Vietnam, Philippines etc.). And there is a large and widening trade imbalance that needs to be worked on.

                      There has been a considerable increase in FDI since 2014 which is a positive sign for both China and Pakistan. The main FDI sectors by priority are: power, construction, financial services, and communication. There is, however, very little FDI in the light manufacturing sector.

                      The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a $900 billion investment, with finance channels targeting green development. It connects more than 60 countries, 60pc of the global population, 30pc of global GDP, and 35pc of global trade.

                      CPEC, a central link of BRI, cuts 10,000 miles of shipping by sea, and connects ports from Shanghai to Africa and Europe through Gwadar.

                      PAKISTAN AND CPEC
                      If things work out smoothly, Pakistan could use the FDI in its power and transport infrastructure and then in the manufacturing sector with the experience of leveraging SEZs to unlock this trio’s potential for rapid gains in job-rich industrialisation. This can be done without unrealistic pre-requirements as the work to lay the foundations for industrialisation has already begun.

                      The potentials are outlined below along with policy options needed to convert them into actions. At regional level, Pakistan has been growing steadily in terms of GDP per capita since 2010, according to the World Bank. Investors are very keen to a growing economy. Consistent growth of purchasing power (GDP per capita) really matters for domestic consumption; therefore the growth rate must be maintained to catch up with competitors.

                      Pakistan is one of the world’s largest reservoirs of human capital and has a tremendous potential consumer base. In 2016, the country was home to 193,203,476 people, being the world’s 6th most populous country. World Economic Forum estimates that it will be among the top five populous countries in the world by 2060.

                      However, a large population is necessary but not sufficient to attract investors. The population has to be equipped with adequate skills to meet industrialisation needs. Effort is also needed to attract global buyers.

                      Thirdly, China and Pakistan have long hailed each other as “all-weather friends”, or “iron brothers” as close as “lips and teeth” in the words of The Economist. There is already solid trust between the two countries, but the Pakistani officials need to visit China more often to convince the private investors for investment opportunities in Pakistan.

                      The CPEC will improve road, air, sea, and energy infrastructure. It will ensure land, sea and air security. It will enhance trade and investment facilitation and will establish free trade areas that meet high standards, maintain closer economic ties, and deepen political trust. Also, it will enhance cultural exchanges and promote mutual understanding, peace, and friendship between the people of the two countries.

                      Having said that, the CPEC should not be considered just a ‘gift’ from China, but the Pakistani government should also establish an FDI Advisory Board that shall promote the new image of the country. This includes visiting China more often and ensuring that investors understand the opportunities and benefits available under the CPEC.

                      Besides, according to the State Bank of Pakistan in November 2017, the country received net FDI worth $207 million out of which $206 million came from China. Potential investors pay significant attention to first movers, other Chinese investors may follow and eventually stay in Pakistan if the government helps the pioneers to be successful.

                      In terms of binding constraints, a study case of Malaysia estimates that FDI can effectively contribute to growth if it is at least 3.14pc of GDP. Pakistan should be able to compete. This requires overcoming the binding constraints by addressing security issues and risks, hard infrastructure challenges, especially SEZ-specific constraints like energy, roads to SEZs etc. Soft infrastructure challenges include corruption, rule of the law, coordination among institutions, inadequate capacity and cultural biases. Absorption capacity can be adjusted by setting yearly realistic targets of FDI amount.

                      There are six steps to identify the right industries, as narrated by Prof. Justin Lin. They include identifying countries with consistent growth, with GDP per capita three times as Pakistan’s or was at the same level as Pakistan 30 years ago.

                      Next comes investigating the existing private investment in those target industries and encourage its development by leasing the market regulations. Attracting global investors into the target industries which lack existing domestic private investment is the third step, followed by paying attention to new enterprises and supporting innovation in the target industries.

                      Establishing and developing SEZs to eliminate entering barriers, attracting foreign investment, and encouraging industrial cluster. And, finally, providing policy incentives for the first movers, including tax reduction, foreign exchange access, etc.

                      THE WAY FORWARD
                      Development can start from ‘low-hanging fruit’ through SEZs. The government should attract first movers to invest and help the pioneers succeed.

                      CPEC should not be taken for granted. Proactive and systematic approach is needed for attracting investors, together with strong market factors.

                      Despite long-term and solid trust at the government level, more mutual dialogues and exchanges need to be enhanced in the private sector. Let the peoples get to understand each other.

                      CPEC and SEZs are open for all investors, including those from other countries beyond China.

                      The writer is a professor at the Institute of New Structural Economics (INSE), Peking University, China.
                      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                      • Eid for the Chinese, say manufacturers

                        KARACHI: Manufacturers have expressed concern over the massive influx of Chinese products in local markets even before the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

                        “It is really Eid for Chinese producers every year while the local industry suffers,” stakeholders said. They cite low prices of Chinese goods which hold a lot of attraction for many Pakistani consumers. However, the consumers are also aware of the lack of quality and durability of Chinese goods, they add.

                        Many manufacturers that Dawn spoke with question the future viability of local industries as the share of Chinese goods will increase once CPEC reaches its apogee.

                        Chairman Council of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (CAPTA), Zubair Motiwalla said the share of China in suiting, which was 10 per cent some five years ago, now stands at 25-30pc.

                        “I think China’s share in suiting will swell to 50-60pc after completion of CPEC,” he said. He feared for the future survival of his industry under such circumstances as the Chinese have “a different style of working” and massive economies of scale for running industries.

                        A vast price difference exists between Chinese and Pakistani suiting. Giving an example, Mr Zubair said full suiting is available at Rs700 while shirt piece costs Rs300 while Pakistani products of the same type are available for at least Rs1,000-1,200.

                        He said shalwar kameez clothes are also arriving from China, holding 5-10pc market share as the local industry is trying hard to compete.

                        Chairman Traders Association of Marriot Road Mohammad Ahmed Shamsi said toys from China enjoy over 90pc market share which had already resulted in closing down of much of the local industry. Toys worth Rs500-600 million arrive in Karachi alone every year from China.

                        He said Chinese confectionery items including chocolates and toffees are available locally but the government should keep a vigil on these imports as non-halal products could be finding their way into Pakistani markets.

                        China also holds a major share in plastic accessories and hair bands while India and Hong Kong enjoy good share in artificial jewellery.

                        In children’s readymade garments, the Chinese dominance is threatened by clothes arriving from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. “I think China now has 25-30pc market share in readymade children’s garments,” he said.

                        President Bohra Bazaar and Mochi Gali Association, Mansoor Jack gave a different view saying Chinese children garments still rule the markets with 75pc market share due to low prices, followed by 60pc share in children shoes, 75pc share in flower and decorative items, 90pc crockery and 75pc share in ladies purses.

                        “The market share of Chinese goods will further increase after completion of various projects under CPEC,” he feared. Member Bahaduarbad Traders Association Imran Saeed Baghpati said the share of Chinese toys is now 98pc and the local industry stands nowhere.

                        He recalled that previously Chinese imports were restricted to mechanical toys while the local industry was providing toys made of plastic moulding and key driven toys. “Now every type of toy is being imported from China,” he said.

                        Few years ago, traders used to pack Chinese toys in Pakistan after imports but now packaging is also being done in China, he added.

                        President Nursery Furniture Market Association Hanif Khan said the share of Chinese furniture (bedroom sets, centre table and dining table) hovers between 15-20pc where the local industry is still going strong.

                        He said Chinese raw material and parts for use in local chair and bedroom sets manufacturing are also arriving. “Import of finished Chinese furniture along with parts and accessories import is estimated at three to four million dollars per annum.”

                        The balance of trade is grossly in favor of China as arrival of goods from Pakistan’s largest trading partner rose to $9.322 billion in July-April 2017-18 while exports from Pakistan remained dismal at $1.444bn.

                        According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) figures, exports from Pakistan stood only $1.365bn in 2016-17 as against imports of $7.850bn in 2016-17 from China.
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                          The article I linked says 5,00,000 not 5,000.
                          Ah yes, 500,000 personnel

                          Just for Gwadar? Wonder why they need so many

                          Western oil companies had communist dictatorships in their home governments, trying to ride the imperialist global gravy-train? Can you come up with better examples?
                          Which communist dictatorships ?

                          I'm referring to western oil companies here, american, british & french. This is starting in the 40s after WW2

                          Gulf countries were and still are run by monarchies.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 21 Aug 18,, 14:01.

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                          • Tidbits...

                            Myanmar reviews $9bn China-backed port project on cost concerns

                            Neelum-Jhelum unit-1 no more functional
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              Ah yes, 500,000

                              Just for Gwadar? Wonder why they need so many
                              Still wondering?

                              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              Which communist dictatorships ?

                              I'm referring to western oil companies here, american, british & french. This is starting in the 40s after WW2

                              Gulf countries were and still are run by monarchies.
                              What I meant is the countries you mentioned were not communists like China.
                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                              • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                                Still wondering?
                                How long for. They are throwing people at the problem to build infrastructure.

                                What I meant is the countries you mentioned were not communists like China.
                                Still don't get your point.

                                Western oil companies had communist dictatorships in their home governments, trying to ride the imperialist global gravy-train?
                                Rephrase that

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