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    CPEC and Developments

    I have never come across a western writer who is as precise about india as John elliot. He runs a india blog at ridingtheelephant.wordpress.com where his articles are hosted in raw before editors chop it

    JOHN ELLIOTT: WHEN INDIA AND CHINA COMPETE, INDIA ALWAYS LOSES

    original here - ridingtheelephant.wordpress.com/2017/04/24/70-years-after-independence-india-weakened-internationally-by-under-performance/

    While international attention has been preoccupied with Donald Trump and his reactions to North Korea’s nuclear capability and the war in Syria, India and China have been provocatively needling each other over their long-running and potentially explosive border dispute in the Himalayan mountains.

    The world need not worry, however, because, instead of nuclear strikes or even, as often happens, troops crossing the undefined border, China last week issued new names for places in India’s north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims as its territory.

    This was in response to India allowing the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader who lives in India in exile, to go to the state earlier this month for a high profile eight-day pastoral tour.

    India is not strong internationally and does not often score against China, its larger and more powerful neighbor. China usually has the upper hand – for example, by blocking India’s membership of the little-known but significant Nuclear Suppliers’ Group in Geneva, and encircling India by developing close relationships and investing in countries that India regards as its bailiwick.

    China is also planning a massive “One Belt One Road” economic trading and transport corridor between Asia and Europe that has exposed India’s diplomatic weakness because the government does not know how to react.

    India has, however, scored three times this month: first, by allowing the Dalai Lama to go to Arunachal which China calls Southern Tibet; then by laying out the red carpet in quick succession for state visits by Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, and by the president of Nepal. China is constantly trying to wean away these two Indian neighbors.

    Last year, China undermined India’s regional role by striking $25 billion agreements with Bangladesh, including the supply of two submarines. India struck back during Sheikh Hasina’s visit with a $9 billion bundle of agreements including $4.5 billion line of concessional credit. India also scored a point with Nepal by persuading it to scale back a ten-day military exercise with China that was taking place during the president’s visit.

    China invests $2bn in Bangladesh gas

    Yesterday, however, it was announced that two Chinese corporations are buying from Chevron gas fields in Bangladesh that account for more than half the country’s total gas output, with a price tag of $2 billion. This is especially significant because it is China’s first energy investment in South Asia.

    China showed unusual irritation, even anger, over the Dalai Lama, who has led a largely uncontroversial life in northern India since he fled from China in 1959. It always objects when he receives high profile welcomes abroad, which sometimes leads to countries such as the US and UK toning down the reception he receives.

    He has previously visited Arunachal six times since 1959, the last being in 2009, and Beijing always issues strong and ineffective complaints. This time it stepped up its (again ineffective) protests by summoning India’s ambassador in Beijing to warn, as the foreign ministry spokesperson put it, that it would “take necessary means to defend its territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights and interests”.

    India should “immediately stop its erroneous move of using the Dalai Lama to undermine China’s interests” because, by permitting the visit, it had “escalated the boundary dispute” between the two countries.

    China claimed that Modi had allowed the Dalai Lama to go to the area for the first time in nine years to provoke Beijing (at a time when relationships have been worsening), which, of course, India denied. The visit was particularly sensitive because the Dalai Lama was boosting his role as the people’s spiritual leader with a long road journey through towns and villages to a monastery at Tawang that is the focus of Beijing’s territorial claims.

    A day before he reached Tawang, where he had stayed when he fled from China, the official China Daily warned that Beijing “would not hesitate to answer blows with blows” if he was allowed to continue, which of course he was and did.

    China retaliates

    The more controversially outspoken Global Times suggested that China could retaliate by supporting the anti-Indian militancy in Kashmir – which, Delhi would say, it already does by condoning Pakistan’s role in the area’s currently escalating unrest.

    “With a GDP several times higher than that of India, military capabilities that can reach the Indian Ocean and having good relations with India’s peripheral nations, coupled with the fact that India’s turbulent northern state borders China, will Beijing lose to New Delhi?” the newspaper taunted.

    Eventually, however, China did no more , at least overtly, than renaming the places – about which, of course, India complained.

    The Dalai Lama tending to his Buddhist flock, and China’s response, are just a by-play in a much larger story of India’s dwindling regional clout, which contrasts with the apparent strength of Narendra Modi’s government that aims to make the country internally and regionally strong and internationally important.

    India has for years aspired to be a player on the world stage and covets a seat on the United Nations Security Council, which China opposes. But, as its leaders recognize, it will not become such a player until it overcomes its economic and social problems at home, in particular its hundreds of millions of undernourished and undereducated poor.

    I was struck by this weakness after attending a series of recent conferences and seminars in Delhi. Many of the points are not new, indeed I covered them in detail in my book IMPLOSION: India’s Tryst with Destiny a couple of years ago. But they strike home three years into the Modi government, which should be making a better job of making India achieve its potential.

    It started at a London School of Economics conference in Delhi where a discussion on India moving from being a “third world to regional power” showed that it wasn’t moving very far, even though it has the world’s fastest growing economy at around 7 percent. Ashley Tellis, a leading US academic who was reported earlier this year to be on Washington’s list for America’s next ambassador to India, said that the country was not “moving at a pace” that would enable it to take on China or enjoy the international clout of other world powers.

    Vikram Sood, a former senior Indian diplomat, said it was inevitable that India’s neighbors would not like it because they were so much smaller. He might have added that India’s diplomats have not learned how to woo their smaller neighbors and are outclassed by China’s money-led diplomacy, though Sri Lanka has recently found China infrastructure investment terms too onerous.

    A few days later, it was India’s failure to cope with “One Belt One Road” – the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) as it is also known – for highways, railways, sea links and pipelines to Europe that emerged strongly at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a leading Delhi think tank.

    China’s ambitious aim for 2049 is to utilize its surplus industrial and financial capacity, to develop trade and financial markets and to extend its sea power and diplomatic reach by linking as many as 65 countries and 4.4 billion people in Asia, East Africa, the Middle East and Europe. It builds on the ancient Silk Road and Trans-Siberian railway and other existing projects, as well as including China’s contentious claims to control the South China Sea.

    This is a challenge for India because the project brings all its neighbors closer into China’s orbit. The plan also includes a separate project to built a China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) linking the ancient city of Kashgar in western China with Pakistan’s Gwadar port (built by China) on the Arabian sea close to the border with Iran.

    India has objected to this because it goes through the northern region of Pakistan which India claims as part of Jammu and Kashmir. India does not seriously expect to ever gain this territory, but it lodges the claim in response to Pakistan wanting India’s part of Kashmir. It objected without any success over 40 years ago when China built the Karakoram Highway, which forms part of the corridor, in Pakistan’s Northern Areas.

    “For India, blocking the BRI is not feasible; ignoring it would be self-defeating,” said Manoj Joshi, a leading journalist and senior ORF fellow at the seminar. “New Delhi needs to work with like-minded states on a strategy that can use BRI to its own ends and minimise its downsides to its own economic and geopolitical standing” .

    The next day, at a Carnegie India seminar, there was anxiety about whether US-India ties, which have been developed over the past decade, would not be so important to Donald Trump. That could significantly weaken India in its dealings with China.

    And the day after that, at the Vivekananda International Foundation which is close to the BJP government, there was concern about how badly India sells itself to the world – and provided no real answers about how that could be improved.

    Those few days, together with the Dalai Lama spat and the neighborly visits, put the India story in context as it approaches its 70th anniversary of independence.

    Despite all that has been achieved developing a poverty-stricken country to an increasingly modern economy, India has yet to develop the confidence or the ability to be significant in its own region and on the world stage.

    It is increasingly losing out to China and there is no sign of that changing.
    The current predicament resembles reagans starwars where the soviet bankrupt themselves in trying to outdo/outspent the US.

    India has a socialist govt where 2/3rd of the population is dependent on the rest 1/3rd. Taxation laws and the accompanying formalities are a landmine and very discouraging to indian businessmen who prefer to import even basic goods than to produce locally. India has a huge muslim problem which it refuses to solve. Most of the territories in india under perform causing large scale migrations of labour and poor. The govt bureaucracy and society lives in an alternate reality which is closely influenced by bollywood movies. John elloit, an indophile, tries to bring all these and more to the front as proof that india cannot balance china. Although there are many criticisms on india by foreign writers but elliot does it precisely and genuinely.
    Last edited by nvishal; 03 May 17, at 09:49.
    Power Respects Power
    --- Dr. APJ Kalam

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvishal View Post
    John elloit, an indophile, tries to bring all these and more to the front as proof that india cannot balance china.
    Believe what you want. India is the only country in Asia that has the potential to counter China without needing to be in an alliance. The only question is whether it wants to.

    I thought our position was pretty clear, Chinese don't compromise sovereignty for development. Guess what, neither do we. This means we are in agreement. Did we have to go over and play skunk at their party? No. The message is clear as is.

    There seems to be a lot of faith that OBOR is going to be this huge success. If the Chinese want to throw their money at white elephants, let them. Will OBOR survive Xi. Lots of unknowns.

    India needs to offer alternatives to the neighbours. Better terms. The Japanese would be interested in that. So we don't do it all alone.

    Watch
    https://youtu.be/ToXlt5CtlV8
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Jun 17, at 21:13.

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    Op-ed: India is not strong internationally because it doesn't have a seat in the P5. China, being a P5 member refuses to sanction Masood Azhar, an international terrorist, supports rouge countries and was involved in nuke proliferation. If China were a person, I'd strip him and spank him. Btw, India's soft power surpasses China in many fronts. The issue of Arunachal is fairly new, it didn't exist pre or post 1962. Oh! And they forget that the BIA saved many of their asses in WWII. The ungratefuls.

    In private the Chinese admit they would lose 80% of their investments in Pakistan and 30% in CAR countries. CPEC & OBOR is 90% a military objective, and 10% flooding cheap low quality goods in other countries. And going by the recent articles in GlobalTimes, the Chinese are begging India to let them sell electric cars and other stuff in India. They need us more than we need them. India has sustained without US in the past, China is a newbie, a nobody. Bankrupting Sri Lanka, is what the Chinese did. Goodluck to all of those who get paid to write articles in favor of China.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Believe what you want. India is the only country in Asia that has the potential to counter China without needing to be in an alliance. The only question is whether it wants to.

    I thought our position was pretty clear, Chinese don't compromise sovereignty for development. Guess what, neither do we. This means we are in agreement. Did we have to go over and play skunk at their party? No. The message is clear as is.

    There seems to be a lot of faith that OBOR is going to be this huge success. If the Chinese want to throw their money at white elephants, let them. Will OBOR survive Xi. Lots of unknowns.

    India needs to offer alternatives to the neighbours. Better terms. The Japanese would be interested in that. So we don't do it all alone.

    Watch
    https://youtu.be/ToXlt5CtlV8
    Under Trumph Presidency, India is the only country who can counter China the way I see it. Read between the lines.

    If you have been following the media in Pak, there are a lot of uncertainties in CPEC. Many paks are not happy, and there is the fear of Chinese colonization. What about the debt re-payments? India and Japan are working together to fund projects in Africa to counter CPEC, with terms that are favorable to host countries, and not flooding those countries with low skilled labor from India, something which the Chinese are masters at. We should have a CPEC/OBOR thread.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    OBOR is a bunch of bilats between China and other countries. There is a lot of interest. You could say too much interest. That the Chinese have some pretty tall expectations to match. So they're trying to rope in the Americans. Where that goes with Trump remains to be seen. His own party doesn't know what he'll do next week. India has been quietly observing for now. This year will be one of uncertainty. When leaders change, policy tends to be fairly constant but trump wants to renegotiate everything. What this does is devalue what the Americans say in the world with this administration. Just look at the anxiety that treaty US allies had to undergo.

    The Paks are just fighting over the loot. The ones that don't get what they want come out with fud. To date $300 million has come over. Far cry from the many billions announced but it's early days still. The bigger question is Chinese staying power. Completion rate of Chinese projects is low. This is a decade and more project.

    OBOR is about keeping the Chinese economy occupied. Any slump means unrest. That is the strategic angle for them. This then allows them to create land ports and sea ports to sell their goods. There's many takes on what it will mean, does it create debt traps that then allow China to influence the policy of other countries. Countries will do what they want. If the Chinese offer to build roads there will be takers. The military side is being a bit overblown I think in the Indian media. Yeah Gwadar only has a military purpose but what else. Gwadar needs to reached from roads in baluchistan where the locals feel left out.

    The position GOI has taken is to expose the contradictions with Chinese statements. Arunachal they claim but don't care about our side. India wasnt even consulted by the Chinese on OBOR. What does it mean for India, the FM is unable to answer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    OBOR is a bunch of bilats between China and other countries. There is a lot of interest. You could say too much interest. That the Chinese have some pretty tall expectations to match. So they're trying to rope in the Americans. Where that goes with Trump remains to be seen. His own party doesn't know what he'll do next week. India has been quietly observing for now. This year will be one of uncertainty. When leaders change, policy tends to be fairly constant but trump wants to renegotiate everything. What this does is devalue what the Americans say in the world with this administration. Just look at the anxiety that treaty US allies had to undergo.

    The Paks are just fighting over the loot. The ones that don't get what they want come out with fud. To date $300 million has come over. Far cry from the many billions announced but it's early days still. The bigger question is Chinese staying power. Completion rate of Chinese projects is low. This is a decade and more project.

    OBOR is about keeping the Chinese economy occupied. Any slump means unrest. That is the strategic angle for them. This then allows them to create land ports and sea ports to sell their goods. There's many takes on what it will mean, does it create debt traps that then allow China to influence the policy of other countries. Countries will do what they want. If the Chinese offer to build roads there will be takers. The military side is being a bit overblown I think in the Indian media. Yeah Gwadar only has a military purpose but what else. Gwadar needs to reached from roads in baluchistan where the locals feel left out.

    The position GOI has taken is to expose the contradictions with Chinese statements. Arunachal they claim but don't care about our side. India wasnt even consulted by the Chinese on OBOR. What does it mean for India, the FM is unable to answer.
    If CPEC & OBOR are successful, it would bring prosperity to millions of people and many countries, starting with Pakistan. But will the US cede power to China? I don't think so. There will be a lot of geo-strategic wrangling in the years to come. CPEC for China is to get unhindered access to markets by-passing the IOR, and import oil, and make sure there are enough jobs in China. Having berthing facilities at Gwadar is also their concern, to block the IN if there is a conflict. I also feel that the Chinese wants a stable Pakistan so that residual jihadis don't flood Xinjiang. So, safe route to markets, importing oil and a stable western border region is what the Chinese want. Oh, and be a huge pain in the ass for Indian military planners all along the eastern and northern borders.

    Pakistani Army make well over $ 20 billion, so their huge interest in CPEC is to grab POK in the process, by letting the Chinese build infrastructure with Chinese money and Chinese labor. They probably are of the view that having infrastructure built by the Chinese would make the Indians not bomb those during a conflict so as not to annoy China, while PA keep sending jihadis across over to India. The other notion probably is the PLA getting on the fight with Pakistan, if there is a conflict with India. Pakistan's textile units are in ruin, CPEC in-turn would flood markets of Pakistan. Huge parts of land are being given to the Chinese for agriculture. But the Pak military is not worried as long as it's generals retire rich and they can have their enmity with India intact. Then there is the debt-trap. How do Pakistan pay back it's debt? PA knows any misery arising due to CPEC, the blame will rest with the Civilian government of Pak. So, if the Chinese think they can change the PA to change its tactics, they are wrong. Maybe 7-8 years down the line, we would hear news of how the ETIM is being backed by ISI to attack the Chinese inside China and in POK, thus demanding more money to fight the terrorists. Much like how they fooled the US. And still fooling the US. PA wins in all scenarios, while China loses money and men.

    Already some attacks have been reported on Chinese workers, 1 or 2 Chinese have been kidnapped last week. CPEC will be bloody. If India plays it's cards right, India can fight China to the last Pakistani. And inside Pakistan.

    One more thing, a stable Pakistan is in the interest of India, US, China, every damn country, except the Pakistani Army. Multiple enemies and conflicts keep the PA relevant in the eyes of the Paks.
    Last edited by Oracle; 03 Jun 17, at 08:53.

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    Islamic State claims it killed two Chinese in Pakistan
    Balochis & Sindhis must be rejoicing. Their turn will come soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nvishal View Post

    The current predicament resembles reagans starwars where the soviet bankrupt themselves in trying to outdo/outspent the US.
    I thought that old canard had been long discredited.

    By the time Reagan was in office, the USSR was in serious economic trouble. The notion that their empire fell apart because they tried to compete with the US on defense is GOPer / hawk propaganda.


    The National Foreign Assessment Center report on the Soviet economy (June 1980: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingr...0000292304.pdf) says on its first page that the slow-down in 1978-79 was mainly due to the adverse effect of poor weather on agricultural production. Oil and coal production were leveling off. Demographics were unfavorable. Productivity (output per unit of input) The conclusion was that growth would be below average through much of the 1980s. The November 1979 party plenum stressed the need to improve living standards, conserve resources and find substitutes for declining oil production.

    The CIA Office of Soviet Analysis’ October 1981 report (https://www.cia.gov/library/readingr...03120013-3.pdf) also pointed to “serious problems in almost every sector of the economy.” However, cutting off access to US equipment and technology “would be disruptive only in the short term” unless other Western governments also banned strategic trade.

    A CIA briefing to the Subcommittee on International Trade, Finance, and Security Economics, of the Joint Economic Committee in December 1982 (https://www.cia.gov/library/readingr...00990003-1.pdf) the Soviet economy can be described as “‘poor’ or ‘deteriorating’.”

    These most certainly are not the entire universe of American views on the Soviet economy in the early 1980s, but the repeated themes strongly suggest that the intelligence community knew the USSR economy was fading long before Star Wars or any other efforts to undermine Moscow.

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    Pakistan comes under severe pressure over killing of Chinese couple

    BEIJING: Even as Pakistan entered the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Chinese assistance, Pakistani leaders came under tremendous pressure from China over the killing of two Chinese citizens. Beijing expressed grave concern over the killing.
    "According to initial information from the Pakistani side, the two Chinese citizens kidnapped may have already unfortunately been killed," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said, adding, "We are highly concerned". She also said China had "always been advising its citizens to not visit highly risky regions".

    China has been pushing Pakistani authorities to rescue a Chinese teacher couple, who had been kidnapped in Balochistan province for more than two weeks.

    The killing of the kidnapped teachers would be a sore point between the two countries because it exposed the inability of Pakistan's government to tackle terrorism in Balochistan, which is also the site where the ambitious Chinese-funded Gwadar port is located. It remains unclear if China's official warning to its citizens covered the Balochistan province.

    Hua added that the killing incident "has no necessary connection" either with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor or the SCO meeting. She said that Pakistan "pays great attention to the protection of Chinese citizens and institutions and has made great efforts in this regard."
    Both the kidnapping and killing have been announced by the Amaq news agency, which is linked to the ISIS terrorist group.

    Soon after the kidnapping, the foreign ministry said on May 25, "We have taken note of relevant reports and we express our grave concern. We have been trying to rescue the two kidnapped hostages over the past days."

    "The Chinese side is working to learn about and verify relevant information through various channels, including working with Pakistani authorities," she said adding, "The Chinese side is firmly opposed to the acts of kidnapping civilians in any form, as well as terrorism and extreme violence in any form."
    LOL. Yeah right. Protect strategic assets like Mashood Azhar from sanctions and shed crocodile tears. Both Pak and China are guilty of shedding as many lives of their innocent citizens, if that helps them hold on to power.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Islamic State claims it killed two Chinese in Pakistan
    Balochis & Sindhis must be rejoicing. Their turn will come soon.
    What does IS have against China? China isn't to my knowledge involved in any anti IS action. I think this is one of the local groups that has rebranded itself and pulling the usual kidnap and ransom. No ransom, bye bye

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What does IS have against China? China isn't to my knowledge involved in any anti IS action. I think this is one of the local groups that has rebranded itself and pulling the usual kidnap and ransom. No ransom, bye bye
    Local group you say.

    Did Pakistani Spies Kill 11 French Naval Engineers?

    I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist, but, just give it a thought.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    But will the US cede power to China? I don't think so. There will be a lot of geo-strategic wrangling in the years to come.
    This is why I don't believe the Americans will leave Afghanistan for the foreseeable future because Afghanistan allows them to cause trouble for both the Chinese in xianjiang and Russians if necessary

    Having berthing facilities at Gwadar is also their concern, to block the IN if there is a conflict.
    How can gwadar block the IN? It's the other way around. External SLOCs are much harder to defend than internal SLOCs. PLAN is at a disadvantage in Gwadar vs the IN just as IN is vs PLAN in the south China Sea. Neither country has meaningful battlegroups to threaten the others home coasts. So neither navy will pick a fight if the other has a home advantage.

    I also feel that the Chinese wants a stable Pakistan so that residual jihadis don't flood Xinjiang. So, safe route to markets, importing oil and a stable western border region is what the Chinese want. Oh, and be a huge pain in the ass for Indian military planners all along the eastern and northern borders.
    Right, that all important western border. If the US comes at them in two directions it complicates things. The Paks won't try anything unless the US has their back.

    Pakistani Army make well over $ 20 billion, so their huge interest in CPEC is to grab POK in the process, by letting the Chinese build infrastructure with Chinese money and Chinese labor.
    The bigger problem for both the Paks and China is how to assure India won't grab gilgit baltistan? That would cut off the cpec leg of OBOR and give us a road to central Asia. So the Chinese won't settle border disputes they have with us as they think it gives them leverage in such an eventuality. To persuade India not to go on an adventure.

    They probably are of the view that having infrastructure built by the Chinese would make the Indians not bomb those during a conflict so as not to annoy China, while PA keep sending jihadis across over to India. The other notion probably is the PLA getting on the fight with Pakistan, if there is a conflict with India.
    Given Indias potential to wreak havoc here won't the Chinese put pressure on the Paks not to push us too far? Could Chinas involvement here cause some restraint on the side of the PA. It would be in Chinas interest to have a resolution in that case. It also means they want our buy in but haven't offered anything as yet

    Pakistan's textile units are in ruin, CPEC in-turn would flood markets of Pakistan. Huge parts of land are being given to the Chinese for agriculture. But the Pak military is not worried as long as it's generals retire rich and they can have their enmity with India intact. Then there is the debt-trap. How do Pakistan pay back it's debt? PA knows any misery arising due to CPEC, the blame will rest with the Civilian government of Pak. So, if the Chinese think they can change the PA to change its tactics, they are wrong. Maybe 7-8 years down the line, we would hear news of how the ETIM is being backed by ISI to attack the Chinese inside China and in POK, thus demanding more money to fight the terrorists. Much like how they fooled the US. And still fooling the US. PA wins in all scenarios, while China loses money and men.
    Paks can only cause trouble for China if the US backs them. Which is also a reason for the US not to brand them a terrorist state and to throw them a few scraps from time to time. They could be useful in the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    This is why I don't believe the Americans will leave Afghanistan for the foreseeable future because Afghanistan allows them to cause trouble for both the Chinese in xianjiang and Russians if necessary
    Right. Covert means.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    How can gwadar block the IN? It's the other way around. External SLOCs are much harder to defend than internal SLOCs. PLAN is at a disadvantage in Gwadar vs the IN just as IN is vs PLAN in the south China Sea. Neither country has meaningful battlegroups to threaten the others home coasts. So neither navy will pick a fight if the other has a home advantage.
    I was not talking about tomorrow. The way PLAN is modernizing, that would be effective in a decade. I do agree the IN won't be a cake-walk for the PLAN, but the motive is very clear even if the Chinese don't admit it. You have to agree, that whatever the western experts say about Chinese technology, 100 Chinese warships against 50 Indian warships would overwhelm the Indian Navy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Right, that all important western border. If the US comes at them in two directions it complicates things. The Paks won't try anything unless the US has their back.
    It's not conventional warfare. It's asymmetric. Paks don't need any permission for that. When the PA and ISI get caught pants down, they deny it outright. They will continue this trick. It worked vis-a-vis the US, it will work vis-a-vis China too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The bigger problem for both the Paks and China is how to assure India won't grab gilgit baltistan? That would cut off the cpec leg of OBOR and give us a road to central Asia. So the Chinese won't settle border disputes they have with us as they think it gives them leverage in such an eventuality. To persuade India not to go on an adventure.
    Unless something terrible happens in India, like say a repeat of 26/11 of much higher magnitude, and P4 agrees (minus China), India won't move it's army inside PoK or G-B. And I don't think P4 will agree to a military move by the GoI. At most, they would (P5 in this case) agree on sanctions against Pak. I am afraid both Pak & China know this fact.

    What you are saying could be possible by say 2030, if the economy keeps growing and military modernization is fast tracked on an urgent basis. By say 2025, India can come out in the open, challenging the one China policy in various forums vis-a-vis Chinese policies on Kashmir and Arunachal. And why just G-B? We'd take PoK and Aksai Chin too. If everything goes right, India won't need any permission from any 3rd country to defang the PA and take back its' rightful lands, including Aksai Chin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Given Indias potential to wreak havoc here won't the Chinese put pressure on the Paks not to push us too far? Could Chinas involvement here cause some restraint on the side of the PA. It would be in Chinas interest to have a resolution in that case. It also means they want our buy in but haven't offered anything as yet
    Define too far. Attacks on military installations? Ambushing IA soldiers? Attacks on metros killing 100s? For the last 70 years, it's we who have been pushing it far. Next time an attack happens, India won't keep quiet - has been the most glorifying statement dished out by the politicians. Attacks are continuous, but India remains silent.

    Coming back to your question, no, I don't think so. It keeps India busy on 2.5 fronts. The Chinese are interested, yes, but only for Xinjiang. Since the Uri attack, whenever the PA aided by terrorists kills 2 of our soldiers, IA kills 4 in retaliation. Pak posts are razed to the ground frequently nowadays. Do you see any change in pattern from the Paks? No. The pattern of retaliation has changed though from the IA.

    China denies snubbing Pakistan, its media blames S Korean preachers for killing of 2 Chinese nationals

    China expects to lose 80% of the CPEC money in Pakistan. They don't care. It's the Paks dying, not Chinese, until now.

    The right way to go about CPEC would be to cultivate assets in G-B, PoK, Sindh and Balochistan to the point of training, arming and funding them. It needs time. But if we start now, by 2025 we can cause significant damage to both the Paks and Chinese, and a couple of years down the line we can have the IA march inside Pak and liberate all mentioned areas just like 1971. China would have lost 100s of billions by then and Pak relegated to Pak Punjab. Not impossible, it can be done if properly planned.

    Btw, in what sense can India wreak havoc? Asymmetric?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Paks can only cause trouble for China if the US backs them. Which is also a reason for the US not to brand them a terrorist state and to throw them a few scraps from time to time. They could be useful in the future.
    I already replied this part. The ISI within the ISI doesn't need any country's permission to put a gun to their head and threaten to commit suicide.
    Last edited by Oracle; 13 Jun 17, at 12:43.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    If one considers the purpose of SCO was to counter US presence in Afghanistan. SCOs origins were security which has presently moved into trade

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