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Thread: CPEC and Developments

  1. #91
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    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    If that is your argument, then I have nothing more to debate. Quoted for future reference.
    I appreciate the civility.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Articles posted here have a common theme -- CPEC bad and that too from both sides of the border. But the motivations are different.

    Could the Pak motivation be as simple as different parties gearing up for the elections next year. Nawaz has been taken out, so PML(N) is also just as corrupt.

    If so then anything and everything the incumbent is doing is bad. So due diligence in reporting isn't important, just emotional will do.

    Whichever party wins will continue the same with a few tweaks to justify their earlier opposition. So CPEC not so bad then just the way the previous administration did it.

    Taking China to court over terms strikes me as nothing more than the usual domestic politicking. Does not matter win or lose but important to look busy : D
    More than elections, my take is the mouths that has not been fed by the CPC, due to the PakMils' assurance of CPEC and it's security. But if the last decade is to be taken as a benchmark, the PakMil is a failure in securing their own country. This is just the start, I expect a lot of fireworks coming.

    The easiest way to become a millionaire and lead a very comfortable life in Pakistan is either via army, politics or Allah. Allah's mullahs on the ground have not been fed, and the same goes for the opposition parties too. There is also hardly anyone who maintains hierarchy in Pak, except the Army, so feeding 1 politico of a party ain't enough, all influentials have to be fed. And this number will rise, depending on how much the Chinese have their neck stuck in CPEC.

    Pakistani 'terrorist' charity launches political party


    Backed by the PakMil, and approved by China. But, but, whoever digs a pit .................
    Last edited by Oracle; 08 Aug 17, at 16:39.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    More than elections, my take is the mouths that has not been fed by the CPC, due to the PakMils' assurance of CPEC and it's security.
    Ah, no protection money for the local boys. So they will resort to kidnappings then. Who is responsible ? SSD special security division.

    But if the last decade is to be taken as a benchmark, the PakMil is a failure in securing their own country. This is just the start, I expect a lot of fireworks coming.
    Their ambassadors are touting their swat & fata sweeps as a success. Peshawar army school attack lends some credence. Attacks are down 30% they claim.

    There is also hardly anyone who maintains hierarchy in Pak, except the Army, so feeding 1 politico of a party ain't enough, all influentials have to be fed. And this number will rise, depending on how much the Chinese have their neck stuck in CPEC.
    I think they have some arrangement, ruling party gets the biggest share, rest get less. Otherwise there will be no stability. There will be more to go around this time and if they play their cards right, be able to grow the pie.

    If there are power cuts for 18h a day , how long can a factory work, how much can it produce, how many people can it employ. Apply that to every company. More electrical power means GDP has got to rise. 80% of CPEC is power generation or so i am told. On a sustainable basis they should be able to meet debts.

    When there are more opportunities, why pick up a gun. The pay isn't that great and you end up dead unless you're lucky


    Pakistani 'terrorist' charity launches political party


    Backed by the PakMil, and approved by China. But, but, whoever digs a pit .................
    Been tried before, they never manage to get more than 10% so go back to the bullet. Maybe they anticipate a poor showing for PML (N) so there are votes to get, might break 10%. In any case this is the usual route for these types if they can make it work. Wonder how PPP will fare or are their chips still down. More votes to get. If LeT is moving out of the terrorism business then others groups will fill the gap. It does mean one less India specific group.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Aug 17, at 22:22.

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    So the SriLankans have leased the Hambantota port and 15K acres to the Chinese for 99 years for servicing a debt of $1.5 billion. The SriLankans still have to pay $60 million every year to the Chinese.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Ah, no protection money for the local boys. So they will resort to kidnappings then. Who is responsible ? SSD special security division.
    Does it matter who is reponsible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Their ambassadors are touting their swat & fata sweeps as a success. Peshawar army school attack lends some credence. Attacks are down 30% they claim.
    This is propaganda to nullify the Americans' wish to do more. Nothing else.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I think they have some arrangement, ruling party gets the biggest share, rest get less. Otherwise there will be no stability. There will be more to go around this time and if they play their cards right, be able to grow the pie.

    If there are power cuts for 18h a day , how long can a factory work, how much can it produce, how many people can it employ. Apply that to every company. More electrical power means GDP has got to rise. 80% of CPEC is power generation or so i am told. On a sustainable basis they should be able to meet debts.
    I did not mean a party, I meant people within the party. Normally the top dog gets the sausage, in Pak most think they deserve a sausage. It's Pakistan we are talking about.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    When there are more opportunities, why pick up a gun. The pay isn't that great and you end up dead unless you're lucky
    Then Pak should have closed down madrassahs 10 years back. Those still churn hate and jihadi culture, and will be doing so in the near future. IIRC, Carlotta Gall in one of her articles mentioned how the JuD plans to go international. That students from it's madrasssahs are joining the Pak Army, Enginnering jobs etc. Basically, people who have been brainwashed from childhood have started infiltrating the ranks of professionals in every sphere of life. Where does that leave CPEC? The fear is a nuke going off in a metropolis like Mumbai or New York in a decade or two. That's a clear and present danger.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Been tried before, they never manage to get more than 10% so go back to the bullet. Maybe they anticipate a poor showing for PML (N) so there are votes to get, might break 10%. In any case this is the usual route for these types if they can make it work. Wonder how PPP will fare or are their chips still down. More votes to get. If LeT is moving out of the terrorism business then others groups will fill the gap. It does mean one less India specific group.
    No. No. No. This is a Pak Army backed move. Jeez!!!!!

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    Civil-military relations not well: report

    “I believe that civil-military relations will get worse in the near future and it will result into chaos and crisis like situations,” he maintained.

    “Moreover, there is a huge difference in views regarding relations with India and Afghanistan,” Mr. Mehboob pointed out.
    Corruption is not the main reason behind Sharif’s disqualification instead it is going against the military by pursuing conciliatory policies towards India as well as Afghanistan and by demanding that Inter-Services Intelligence ends its use of militant groups as tools of foreign policy,” monitor claimed.

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    Last edited by Oracle; 18 Aug 17, at 18:41.

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    Gilgit: People oppose acquiring of land for Pakistan's ISI

    "The other news I've heard is that 20,000 kanal of land has been acquired in a nearby village and this all has been happening at the pretext of CPEC. A similar situation is prevailing in another village Minaaur too. Although 800-900 Kanal of land was already given by our village still 300 Kanal has been given for the firing range," Shah said, while pointing out that the land has not been occupied by covert tricks, but by blatant hooliganism.

    "When China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was first announced in the region, then it was declared by Chief Minister Hafiz-ur-Rehman that special economic zones would bring employment in the region. However, the army diktat changed the tone and tenor of the leaders and subsequently all hopes of the people were quashed," he stated.
    "The government has allotted land for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) without taking permission of the local people and there is animosity among the people of Gilgit- Baltistan," Meraj, a Journalist in Gilgit said. He further noted that various political parties of the region have also expressed their concern, and that the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has initiated a movement under the name Haq Malikaan and has informed the residents that they should be given compensation from the government for acquiring their land.

    Highlighting the fact that Pakistan is assisting Chinese for CPEC, he said, "The proper fencing of the land acquired by the Pakistan military has been done .In order to appease the Chinese and assist them in completing their dream CPEC project, people were threatened, beaten and were forced to make a compromise with the Pakistan establishment."

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    More MOU's signed

    Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to? | Devex | Aug 24 2017

    The latest $50 billion in memorandums now brings Chinese loans and investments in Pakistan to well over $100 billion. A senior member of the CPEC team at Pakistan’s Ministry for Planning, Development, and Reform predicts that figure will ultimately grow to $150 billion. If the dams face cost overruns — which are 96 percent on average — then that will be a conservative estimate.
    China’s involvement in Pakistan, however, is also expensive. Interest rates as high as 5 percent are closer to commercial rates and higher than what the World Bank and International Monetary Fund offer. Unlike U.S. and other bilateral assistance, there is little free money. Rather, Chinese companies expect high returns on their investments after Pakistan pays back the multibillion dollar loans that these companies have taken from Chinese banks.

    Whether Pakistan can pay depends on if the massive new infrastructure stimulates economic growth. There is a risk that the potential for development impact is fuelled by hope and may be overstated.
    thought the figure was 2%, now there is this 'as high as 5%' ? for commercial projects yes not g to g. And so the misleading perception is created that ALL chinese investment is at commercial rates

    BRI is intended to intensify trade connections across Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Confusingly, “belt” refers to roads and “road” refers to maritime routes.

    But roads and rail are actually a small part of Chinese money in Pakistan — less than $11 billion of the original $46 billion agreement. It’s small because, contrary to popular perceptions, much of the CPEC route is actually financed by Pakistan.

    “Much of the roads being built are being built by our money,” says Miftah Ismail, who was Pakistan’s minister for investment until late last month, when the cabinet was dissolved because the Supreme Court voted to remove the prime minister on grounds of corruption.

    What Ismail estimates Pakistan will take on in Chinese projects this year — $4 billion in loans and investments — equals what the Pakistani federal and provincial governments have allocated for roads and highways in their own annual budgets.
    must be a translation issue
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Aug 17, at 13:55.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    How the Silk Road plans will be financed | FT | May 10 2016

    Not all projects financed by Chinese policy banks are driven by commercial logic, says Tom Miller, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research company. A $46bn plan to finance an “economic corridor” through Pakistan, linking the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to north-west China, is motivated partly by the need to find an alternative route for oil imports from the Middle East to avoid rising tensions in the South China sea. Mr Miller says Chinese officials privately admit they expect to lose 80 per cent of their investment in Pakistan, 50 per cent in Myanmar and 30 per cent in central Asia.
    That bolded bit gets parroted still like its an article of faith.

    So why then does China want a decades long lease on Hambantota, if they can accept 80% losses why can't they just walk away. Why continue to invest in projects that are uneconomic to begin with...
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Aug 17, at 13:35.

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