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Thread: CPEC and Developments

  1. #466
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Watched a couple of talks and there were some interesting statements

    - CPEC is too big to fail. It's BRi's flagship project so China will invest to make it successful otherwise it would not set a good example for BRI projects elsewhere. They will keep throwing good money after bad if need be.

    - Gwadar won't end up like Hambantota because Gwadar was funded through a grant instead of a loan. Couple other projects also funded through grants are the highway from Gwadar to Karachi and the optic fiber cable that comes to Pakistan from China. Projects funded through grants as opposed to loans have a special meaning. They won't fail.

    - China in creating BRI has inadvertently ended up with countries that feel threatened. The impression created is China is taking over these countries some way or the other. What if China's strategic intent with BRI is peace & development ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Jan 19, at 13:21.

  2. #467
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  3. #468
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    China’s BRI in Pakistan – a poster child for success? | Asia Dialogue | Jan 29 2019

    The analysis presented here shows that there is a chasm between the decentralisation introduced in 2010 through the 18th Amendment to the Pakistani Constitution and the centripetal nature of the CPEC. The latter, in its current form, threatens to increase tensions between provinces and between the provinces and the centre.

    First, there was a need to provide Beijing with a single point of reference for managing the CPEC on the Pakistani side. ‘The pressure from the Chinese side to move quickly did not allow the federal government time to fully integrate the provinces initially.

    Second, the government was unwilling to hand over control of the CPEC to the military. The latter sees the economic corridor as an opportunity to further strengthen its relations with China. In 2016, the Pakistani military attempted to increase its influence over the CPEC by suggesting the creation of a ‘CPEC authority’; a proposal successfully resisted by the then PML-N government. Given the close ties between the current PTI administration in Pakistan and the army, the latter will likely acquire a more formal role in future months, especially considering that China has ‘minced no words about their desire for the army to have a greater role in the CPEC’.

    Another important element in the context of the CPEC and Pakistan’s federal structure is the controversy related to the route of the corridor. The original plan for the CPEC was to prioritise the less developed regions of Pakistan – Balochistan and KP – in order to shorten the transit route from Gwadar to the Karakoram Highway. However, shortly after starting the project it became evident that priority would be given to those road networks that were already developed.

  4. #469
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Professor Andrew MacLeod. I will remember this name.

    Exploding the misconceptions of Belt and Road and Britain’s possible place post Brexit | Kings college (podcast) | Jan 23 2019

    China isn't rising, its returning. Back to its former place in the world economy. Because the world is re-balancing.

    Before 1830, the size of a country's economy was linked to the size of its population. More people, larger economy. 1830 is the industrial revolution. Allows smaller population countries to overtake larger ones due to increased productivity. In 1950 the information age begins and the process accelerates. Today that comparative advantage is much smaller. So we go back to more people equals bigger economy.

    The idea of BRI is to link the fastest growing area in the world, China, with the second fastest growing area in the world (South Asia & Central Asia) to the third fastest growing area in the world (Sub Saharan Africa). Gwadar is a jump off point to Africa. Europe is a side note. The west isn't the target. Africa is the target. The place where most of the world's growth will come in the future. Chinese deals with African countries include terms that guarantee access to mining resources at future prices. Can't pay back the loan, then allow minerals. Same is being done with Venuezuela i expect.

    The chinese are trying to build a connection between Kinshasa on the east to Kisangani in the west. This will be the first time East & west Africa will be linked.

    Great stuff....
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Feb 19, at 12:40.

  5. #470
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    China rejects India's study about Belt and Road facing 'push back' | ET | Feb 12 2019

    Was wondering what this was about and found the article referred to

    China’s BRI is facing resistance in region, says ministry report | HT | Feb 04 2019

    The MEA study, seen by HT, says that “unacceptable conditions” imposed on countries is leading to a severe push back. BRI was as much about China getting a foothold across the world, projecting itself globally, as it was shovelling excess Chinese capacity, said a senior official familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.
    I couldn't find the report on the MEA's website, i suppose it isn't public : /

    I wondered where this term 'unacceptable conditions' came from and its the WAPDA chairman who said it

    Pakistan stops bid to include Diamer-Bhasha Dam in CPEC | Tribune.pk | Nov 15 2017

    Pakistan has withdrawn its request to include the $14-billion Diamer-Bhasha Dam in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework after Beijing placed strict conditions including ownership of the project, said Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) Chairman Muzammil Hussain on Tuesday.

    “Chinese conditions for financing the Diamer-Bhasha Dam were not doable and against our interests,” said Hussain while briefing the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) on the status of the mega water and power project.

    He said the Chinese conditions were about taking ownership of the project, operation and maintenance cost and securitisation of the Diamer-Bhasha project by pledging another operational dam.

    These conditions were unacceptable, therefore, Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi approved a summary to finance the dam from the country’s own resources, he said.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Feb 19, at 19:11.

  6. #471
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    CPEC transparency

    Still shrouded in secrecy.
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  7. #472
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    Pakistan diverts CPEC corridor funds; China ties under pressure

    The Chinese shouldn't be surprised. They expected only 20% returns. Lol.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  8. #473
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    ^^haha i knew you would post this one
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 19, at 13:23.

  9. #474
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Maybe.But is more likely aimed at the internal audience.My point was that the stakes are high and usually such games come to the end.Even if it takes generations.
    The US -China rivalry will play out everywhere.The PAcific is the obvious theater.But China is also trying to build a land infrastructure that will connect it to its markets and raw materials suppliers.The US WILL create chaos along these routes.Or wil use the existing chaos,whic is the more likely scenario,since there are few excuses needed for a good fight.The Chinese need law and order,of course one favourable to them.And Chinese law,IMO,sucks bigly.But some may like it.It will be the same as the old Cold War,only nastier.

    So yes,Af-Pak,but this is a limitation.Say China wins this area and it's under its thumb 100%.No big deal,there is still plenty to go until you reach the ME oil and Africa.
    Yes. Agree with your points broadly. A state machinery needs support of its citizens.

    As about conflict, Af-Pak is a very juicy target for US covert actions, as the country is filled with Pakistan Army supported tens of groups of mercenaries whose support can be bought. I don't see it as a limitation, I see it as a start where the Chinese lose men and money big time and backs off, 100% under Chinese control doesn't matter. Jiwani (Pakistan), as a new Chinese naval base should concern Americans and Indians, but not to the extent that it can't be countered. But still, the Chinese are building it hoping to fight it out, if not with the Americans then definitely with us Indians.

    Baloch Liberation Army attacks Chinese assets for 3rd time since Aug 2018
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  10. #475
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Some numbers



    So after a year they are bankrupt and still need to pay back loans. What to do ? Start selling the family jewels.

    Part with areas of PO J&K to China is what the anchor is suggesting and that India should be worried about this..sounds so ominous : O

    Thing is if they do that then

    - what happens to their Kashmir stance ?
    - what would Kashmiri's on either side think about their land being given away willy nilly.
    - these people aren't going to become Chinese. Whatever used to be Kashmir then becomes part of Xianjiang
    - what value this will be to China is unclear to me. Landlocked high in the mountains. Not exactly as important as Aksai China in that it does not matter to China if it is with Pakistan which would then make it low value for China.
    - disputed territory ie. encumbered and future headaches with India

    No, this won't do.

    The tell is they put in work doing the Pak books but just throw in this give PO J&K to China suggestion like an after thought.

    Why should India worry about this when all in all its such a bum deal for China. Not convinced.

    Instead what about Balochistan ?

    Pretty big area, low population, lots of minerals to exploit so profitable mining and access to the sea.

    There is a slight security problem for the Chinese so let China deal with the BLA

    Much better deal now.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Apr 19, at 02:34.

  11. #476
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ^ I was reading a report by a Pakistani who said that Gwadar has already been given to the Chinese. Nothing about strategic use, just that it has been given. Forgot to link that article.

    Does China provide a good model for naya Pakistan?

    The author raises several questions, but no answers to these for several years now.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  12. #477
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    ^ I was reading a report by a Pakistani who said that Gwadar has already been given to the Chinese. Nothing about strategic use, just that it has been given. Forgot to link that article.
    Gwadar lease is for 33 years IIANM so it has not been "given" to China.

  13. #478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Gwadar lease is for 33 years IIANM so it has not been "given" to China.
    When we talk about Pak-China, lease = given, it could be 'gifted' in some years. Don't forget a part of Kashmir has been gifted by Pakistan to China decades back.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Watched a couple of talks and there were some interesting statements

    - CPEC is too big to fail. It's BRi's flagship project so China will invest to make it successful otherwise it would not set a good example for BRI projects elsewhere. They will keep throwing good money after bad if need be.

    - Gwadar won't end up like Hambantota because Gwadar was funded through a grant instead of a loan. Couple other projects also funded through grants are the highway from Gwadar to Karachi and the optic fiber cable that comes to Pakistan from China. Projects funded through grants as opposed to loans have a special meaning. They won't fail.

    - China in creating BRI has inadvertently ended up with countries that feel threatened. The impression created is China is taking over these countries some way or the other. What if China's strategic intent with BRI is peace & development ?
    How much has the Chinese invested in Venezuela? USD 65 Billion, IIRC. What is the status of those loans? :D
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  14. #479
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    When we talk about Pak-China, lease = given, it could be 'gifted' in some years. Don't forget a part of Kashmir has been gifted by Pakistan to China decades back.
    Lease is not given. Lease is lease. Gifting land that is some part of the world away from China does not make much sense. Mining concessions are more profitable. Balochistan does have mineral wealth. Imran mentioned he would have good news soon. Maybe some off shore drilling prospects are coming up.

    Paks did give away Shaksgam valley in '63. But the goal of creating the Pak - China handshake over India's head remains thwarted after Operation Meghdoot. We control the Saltoro ridge. So what land in that area could the Paks give away that would be of benefit to China. If you look at that map does anything stick out ?

    Update: an older article from 2012
    Pakistan considering proposal to lease Gilgit-Baltistan to China: US think tank | PTI | Feb 11 2012

    Seven years later....they haven't moved on it yet

    Best bit is the defpk reaction to this article. Thread closed for stupidity : D


    How much has the Chinese invested in Venezuela? USD 65 Billion, IIRC. What is the status of those loans? :D
    AFAIK Chinese get sovereign guarantees when they make loans. Given the state of Venezuela is in dire straits they are trying to work with the situation and salvage what they can. I expect this will be in terms of oil concessions.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Apr 19, at 20:18.

  15. #480
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Lease is not given. Lease is lease. Gifting land that is some part of the world away from China does not make much sense. Mining concessions are more profitable. Balochistan does have mineral wealth. Imran mentioned he would have good news soon. Maybe some off shore drilling prospects are coming up.

    Paks did give away Shaksgam valley in '63. But the goal of creating the Pak - China handshake over India's head remains thwarted after Operation Meghdoot. We control the Saltoro ridge. So what land in that area could the Paks give away that would be of benefit to China. If you look at that map does anything stick out ?
    Shaksgam valley is gone, isn't it? Gwadar is a strategic necessity for China. You wouldn't agree I know, but we'll be here to witness it. That time will come.

    AFAIK Chinese get sovereign guarantees when they make loans. Given the state of Venezuela is in dire straits they are trying to work with the situation and salvage what they can. I expect this will be in terms of oil concessions.
    Yes. Debt trap. I am more interested to know what if a client state can't pay back their loans to China. Can the Americans in any way rescue that country? In what way? Can Venezuela start from zero.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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