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Thread: CPEC and Developments

  1. #286
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Sri Lanka is no longer considered high risk. They've learnt their lesson. Does not help to be on the FATF greylist
    Yes, I understand. Hambantota is Chinese real-estate.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  2. #287
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Girl goes missing in Shanghai after splashing ink on Xi Jinping picture

    There is a lesson for all of us who live in democratic countries in this video. This tyranny amazes me.

    Girl who threw ink on Chinese Prez Xi's picture goes missing

    A girl who live-streamed a video of her splashing ink on Chinese President Xi Jinping's picture has gone missing. "I oppose the tyranny of Xi Jinping's dictatorship and the brain-control oppression imposed on me by the Chinese Communist Party," the girl said in the video. She had also posted images of uniformed men outside her home on Twitter.
    Last edited by Oracle; 09 Jul 18, at 14:39.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  3. #288
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Girl goes missing in Shanghai after splashing ink on Xi Jinping picture

    There is a lesson for all of us who live in democratic countries in this video. This tyranny amazes me.

    Girl who threw ink on Chinese Prez Xi's picture goes missing
    her twitter account is gone but a google cache is available

    She decided to do this protest on Jul 4th, she has new york taped on her chest twice.

  4. #289
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Yes, I understand. Hambantota is Chinese real-estate.
    And ? will they turn it into another Hong Kong or lose interest in another 15 - 20yr

    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    I'll be surprised if China bothers keeping that concession for 15, or 20 years at the most. The idea is to use it in that time to leverate the locals to use Chinese industrial and engineering standards, have Chinese companies be the preferred source of ToT, go to Chinese higher education for graduate studies and local exporters focus on selling to China.
    Beauty of this 15-20 yr thing is you can predict anything : D

  5. #290
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    her twitter account is gone but a google cache is available

    She decided to do this protest on Jul 4th, she has new york taped on her chest twice.
    She is very young. The kind of women who can stir up a revolution. Thanks for the cached Twitter page. I took screenshots from that account to post it here.

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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  6. #291
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    And ? will they turn it into another Hong Kong or lose interest in another 15 - 20yr
    The Chinese paid for it. Its main purpose is strategic. Though I doubt it will have any leverage on INs war plans. That port will be the first to be bombed, alongwith <coughhhh>, one to the North-West/North.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  7. #292
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    The Chinese paid for it. Its main purpose is strategic. Though I doubt it will have any leverage on INs war plans.
    Then what strategic value does it have left. Same with the Maldives. That is my point.

    Chinese will move on after they have managed to get whatever they put in back aka what Skywatcher said

  8. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Then what strategic value does it have left. Same with the Maldives. That is my point.

    Chinese will move on after they have managed to get whatever they put in back aka what Skywatcher said
    The Chinese are thinking 15 years down the line. I am thinking 15 years down the line. Experts are thinking 15 years down the line. What is wrong with you?
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  9. #294
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    The Chinese are thinking 15 years down the line. I am thinking 15 years down the line. Experts are thinking 15 years down the line. What is wrong with you?
    There is no thinking going on here. That is the problem. Some one comes up with a scare story and everybody parrots it. Repeat it enough times and its a fact as Goebbels said.

    'Strategic' is a meaningless word unless defined. It's short for 'i don't know but it can't be good i just can't tell you how' : )

    Listening stations that's what they can do and what we're doing. We can see what the other is doing. This is good isn't it, no surprises either way. Anything undesirable can be flagged before it becomes an issue.

    Years ago when the things were kicking off in the China seas, i wondered why they were opposing FONOPS. They weren't opposing commercial vessels, it was the military ones they wanted far off. Because they said the Americans were spying on them. So militarising those islands is a way to deter FONOPS hence no spying or pushes military ships far out enough that they cannot spy. The Americans just ignored this complaint and continued insisting on freedom of navigation. We don't hear that these days rather what we hear are more countries also insisting on freedom of navigation.

    Why do they oppose THAAD, because the radars can see into China.

    So this ability by another looking into their space is the problem. So it would seem is the case with us and others when China sets up shop nearby.

    We don't want a military presence nearby no matter how small.

    Without war breaking out there is this constant limiting factor, apparently.

    I suppose the analogy is how would you like it if there was some stranger parked opposite your house or in other ways conducting surveillance. You become uneasy and confront them at some point. Does that analogy work at the country level ? No.

    Countries conduct espionage as a matter of course any how the moment satellites were able. Everybody watches and listens to the other so there is some parity
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Jul 18, at 08:39.

  10. #295
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    A long read, but useful summary of what we've said here for a while now

    China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Opportunities and Risks | Crisis Group | Jun 29 2018

    This report examines CPEC’s economic and development projects within Pakistan, discusses whether it will bring the broad economic revival that Pakistani leaders claim it will generate, and assesses its political and security costs for Pakistan.

    It analyses CPEC’s impact on domestic stability and security, particularly the potential for heightened tensions between the federation and federal units, between Islamabad and Gilgit-Baltistan, and on conflict dynamics within provinces.

    It does not analyse in detail Beijing’s Pakistan policy or its options for CPEC. The report is based on interviews with officials, economists, politicians, security analysts, journalists, activists and other stakeholders in the federal capital, Islamabad, as well as in Balochistan, Punjab and Sindh, conducted from November 2017 to January 2018.

  11. #296
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Is the BRI just a debt-trap ?



    The surprise here is China is dollar constrained when it comes to BRI because the Renmimbi isn't a fully functioning global currency. In other words China's ability to fund BRI depends to a large extent on its dollar supply.




    Interesting discussion otherwise, sobering. Given the current economic climate its seems a good idea that the Wuhan meet took place.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Jul 18, at 22:50.

  12. #297
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rj1 View Post
    Their military just took over a port in Sri Lanka. How did the Indians let that one happen?
    Sri lankan not Chinese. here

    AFAIK the 1987 peace accord we have with them is still in force and has this at the end

    Conscious of the friendship between our two countries stretching over two millenia and more, and recognising the importance of . nurturing this traditional friendship, it is imperative that both Sri Lanka and India reaffirm the decision not to allow our respective territories to be used for activities prejudicial to each other's unity, territorial integrity and security.

    2. (i) Your Excellency and myself will reach an early understanding about the relevance and employment of foreign military and intelligence personnel with a view to ensuring that such presence will not prejudice Indo-Sri Lankan relations.

    (ii) Trincomalee or any other ports in Sri Lanka will not be made available for military use by any country in a manner prejudicial to India's interests.

    (iv) Sri Lanka's agreements -with foreign broadcasting organisations will be reviewed to ensure that any facilities set up by them in Sri Lanka are used solely as public broadcasting facilities and not for any military or intelligence purposes.
    At the time, this ironically was to keep the Americans out of Trincomalee : )

    Apparently the NYT posted on Jun 25 that might have created this impression.

    Indian officials, in particular, fear that Sri Lanka is struggling so much that the Chinese government may be able to dangle debt relief in exchange for its military’s use of assets like the Hambantota port — though the final lease agreement forbids military activity there without Sri Lanka’s invitation.

    The only way to justify the investment in Hambantota is from a national security standpoint — that they will bring the People’s Liberation Army in,” said Shivshankar Menon, who served as India’s foreign secretary and then its national security adviser as the Hambantota port was being built.
    A surmise by the previous Indian NSA

    Now, the handover of Hambantota to the Chinese has kept alive concerns about possible military use — particularly as China has continued to militarize island holdings around the South China Sea despite earlier pledges not to.

    Sri Lankan officials are quick to point out that the agreement explicitly rules out China’s military use of the site. But others also note that Sri Lanka’s government, still heavily indebted to China, could be pressured to allow it.
    Another speculation but somehow it turned into China has a military port in Sri Lanka now. Those islands in the SCS are uninhabited, Sri Lanka is a sovereign nation.

    And you're the second person to tell me this : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Jul 18, at 00:19.

  13. #298
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rj1 View Post
    Their military just took over a port in Sri Lanka. How did the Indians let that one happen?
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Last time I checked, Sri Lanka wasn’t a colony of India. Or, a province.
    Neither of China either. China is in fact just a tenant in Sri Lanka and is expected to follow whatever agreements were made.

  14. #299
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The bolded bit is completely crazy

    Pakistan seeks more loans from China to avert currency crisis | FT | Jul 06 2018

    Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and Kiran Stacey in New Delhi JULY 6, 2018

    Pakistan has asked China to keep lending it money to avert a foreign currency crisis, warning that Beijing’s planned $60bn investment in the south Asian country was at risk if it failed to do so.

    Pakistan borrowed $4bn from China in the year ending June 2018, according to government officials, and wants to keep the money flowing to avoid having to ask the IMF for a bailout.

    Officials in Islamabad have warned their Chinese counterparts that if the lending dries up, it could threaten the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    They say that if Pakistan is forced to approach the IMF instead, it may have to disclose details of how the scheme is being funded, and even cancel some of the infrastructure projects already planned.

    One Pakistani government official said: “We had a detailed discussion with the Chinese and we shared our concern. The main issue is that once we are locked in an IMF programme, we will have to make full disclosure of the terms on which China has agreed to build the CPEC.”

    Another added: “Once the IMF looks at CPEC, they are certain to ask if Pakistan can afford such a large expenditure given our present economic outlook.”

    Pakistan’s stocks of foreign reserves have been falling for the past two years, as imports rise and remittances from abroad have fallen. But the slide has gathered pace in recent few months, due in part to higher oil prices pushing up the price of imported goods.

    By the beginning of June, the State Bank of Pakistan had just $10bn worth of foreign currency, down from $16.1bn a year earlier and not even enough to cover two months’ worth of imports. The situation is set to become even more urgent in 2019, when $12.7bn of external repayments are due, compared with $7.7bn this year.

    Stephen Schwartz, a senior director at the rating agency Fitch, said: “We have elections at the end of July, and the new government will have to immediately draw up further and considerable policies to stabilise the external finances.”

    Islamabad has so far avoided having to return to the IMF after exiting its last programme in 2016, in part through Chinese lending, and more recently by devaluing its currency 13 per cent against the dollar.

    The dependency on money from Chinese state-backed banks has started to worry some people, who say that the country’s increasingly close economic and military ties with its northern neighbour risk turning it into a de facto client state.

    Many in the country have now begun to argue that it should instead face the perceived humiliation of returning to the IMF.

    Sakib Sherani, a former adviser to the finance ministry, said Pakistan must raise a further $28bn this financial year to keep up with debt repayments.

    “It is vital to restore the market’s confidence in Pakistan’s ability to keep up with its repayments,” he said.*“The IMF is the only option to deal with this tough situation.”

  15. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Sri lankan not Chinese. here

    AFAIK the 1987 peace accord we have with them is still in force and has this at the end



    At the time, this ironically was to keep the Americans out of Trincomalee : )

    Apparently the NYT posted on Jun 25 that might have created this impression.



    A surmise by the previous Indian NSA



    Another speculation but somehow it turned into China has a military port in Sri Lanka now. Those islands in the SCS are uninhabited, Sri Lanka is a sovereign nation.

    And you're the second person to tell me this : )
    From the NYT article you link.

    When the agreement was initially negotiated, it left open whether the port and surrounding land could be used by the Chinese military, which Indian officials asked the Sri Lankan government to explicitly forbid. The final agreement bars foreign countries from using the port for military purposes unless granted permission by the government in Colombo.

    That clause is there because Chinese Navy submarines had already come calling to Sri Lanka.
    Hey, great for the Chinese. They found a corrupt politician that ran a country, took advantage of him, and one of their state-owned companies now owns 85% of a port in the middle of the Indian Ocean. And awesome they built a cricket stadium just for their love of the game. They also financed a bunch of cricket stadiums for the Cricket World Cup that was held in the Caribbean. They must be huge cricket fans.

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