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Thread: CPEC and Developments

  1. #16
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Local group you say.

    Did Pakistani Spies Kill 11 French Naval Engineers?

    I don't want to be a conspiracy theorist, but, just give it a thought.
    The story there is commissions promised in the mid nineties fail to materialise in the early 2000s with the coming of chirac leading to the death of French engineers in 2002. There doesn't seem to be much movement here from the French side till date.

    Your point is if Chinese projects don't materialise the same fate awaits Chinese engineers with the connivance of the PA? Maybe if cpec gets completely cancelled.

    Otherwise there are many projects planned in numerous sectors. Some will materialise where others do not.

    The Chinese have chosen not to publicise the death of that Chinese couple. Otherwise it could affect people to people relations between the two countries.

  2. #17
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Right. Covert means.
    Fomenting rebellion in xianjiang. Americans will keep the Paks onside for a long time.

    I was not talking about tomorrow. The way PLAN is modernizing, that would be effective in a decade. I do agree the IN won't be a cake-walk for the PLAN, but the motive is very clear even if the Chinese don't admit it. You have to agree, that whatever the western experts say about Chinese technology, 100 Chinese warships against 50 Indian warships would overwhelm the Indian Navy.
    I think the purpose of Chinese in gwadar is to reassure the Paks over their growing naval disparity into the future with India. We are the threat here not the PLAN. The presence of PLAN at Gwadar is to act as a deterrent to the IN. Am not convinced it will be sufficient even into the future but if it helps the Paks sleep sound then great. Though let's not parrot out their rhetoric : )

    A 100 destroyers there means a 100 not available elsewhere. The American border begins at the limits of Chinese EEZ wherever its designated along their eastern seaboard. The US & China are practically neighbours.

    It's not conventional warfare. It's asymmetric. Paks don't need any permission for that. When the PA and ISI get caught pants down, they deny it outright. They will continue this trick. It worked vis-a-vis the US, it will work vis-a-vis China too.

    China expects to lose 80% of the CPEC money in Pakistan. They don't care. It's the Paks dying, not Chinese, until now.
    80% of how much? 46billion? No. Much less, maybe. But there is no need for China to lose. They can win and by extension counter the US by persuading the Paks not to go down that path. One way to do that is state capture.

    To understand how that works consider what Russia is doing in East Europe. This can serve as the future model for the Chinese to extend their influence via OBOR that is until the two collide at some point. Already happening in central Asia where the two vye for influence. So the Russians got us into SCO. An Indian presence adds another player into central Asia. They will cooperate with us in the north south corridor. Iran, Russia, Central Asia.

    What the Russians do is invest in strategic sectors. Finance, energy, media, real estate & infrastructure. If 10% of a country's gdp is due to these investments then the sponsor has become influential. If it crosses 20% then it's bordering on state capture where whatever recipient govt will defend the sponsors interests over its own. Case in point here is Bulgaria. A nato ally which Russia has significant control over. The way they hook players is offer way above what the market will offer for projects and keep doing it and if a problem arises threaten to go public in the country concerned. Blackmail. So not quite losing 80%. Some suspect Trump is similarly ensnared. That the Russians are keeping his businesses from bankruptcy. Lot of excited Americans these days. Comprehending the American political scene has become as difficult as Pakistan.

    If the Chinese can replicate this in Pakistan and other countries then they create buffers along the way. It's a big ask but possible if many things come together.

    Unless something terrible happens in India, like say a repeat of 26/11 of much higher magnitude, and P4 agrees (minus China), India won't move it's army inside PoK or G-B. And I don't think P4 will agree to a military move by the GoI. At most, they would (P5 in this case) agree on sanctions against Pak. I am afraid both Pak & China know this fact.

    What you are saying could be possible by say 2030, if the economy keeps growing and military modernization is fast tracked on an urgent basis. By say 2025, India can come out in the open, challenging the one China policy in various forums vis-a-vis Chinese policies on Kashmir and Arunachal. And why just G-B? We'd take PoK and Aksai Chin too. If everything goes right, India won't need any permission from any 3rd country to defang the PA and take back its' rightful lands, including Aksai Chin.
    Reclaiming lost territory. Not encroaching on others. We're never giving up our claims.

    Define too far. Attacks on military installations? Ambushing IA soldiers? Attacks on metros killing 100s? For the last 70 years, it's we who have been pushing it far. Next time an attack happens, India won't keep quiet - has been the most glorifying statement dished out by the politicians. Attacks are continuous, but India remains silent.
    But we've shown a willingness to go beyond the usual. Won't be the last time. Not like earlier when the odds we would cross the border were much lower. As to the effect it will take time. It might look like nothing has changed.

    Coming back to your question, no, I don't think so. It keeps India busy on 2.5 fronts. The Chinese are interested, yes, but only for Xinjiang. Since the Uri attack, whenever the PA aided by terrorists kills 2 of our soldiers, IA kills 4 in retaliation. Pak posts are razed to the ground frequently nowadays. Do you see any change in pattern from the Paks? No. The pattern of retaliation has changed though from the IA.
    See previous reply. We have become less predictable. If Chinese influence grows in pakistan they would prefer we stick to our side of the border. They do not see us as a threat on the Chinese border as they haven't built up their military infrastructure to the point it is on their east.


    The right way to go about CPEC would be to cultivate assets in G-B, PoK, Sindh and Balochistan to the point of training, arming and funding them. It needs time. But if we start now, by 2025 we can cause significant damage to both the Paks and Chinese, and a couple of years down the line we can have the IA march inside Pak and liberate all mentioned areas just like 1971. China would have lost 100s of billions by then and Pak relegated to Pak Punjab. Not impossible, it can be done if properly planned.

    Btw, in what sense can India wreak havoc? Asymmetric?
    Conventional
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jun 17, at 02:25.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If one considers the purpose of SCO was to counter US presence in Afghanistan. SCOs origins were security which has presently moved into trade
    Wasn't it formed due to China's insecurity vis-a-vis the Russians?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The story there is commissions promised in the mid nineties fail to materialise in the early 2000s with the coming of chirac leading to the death of French engineers in 2002. There doesn't seem to be much movement here from the French side till date.
    And there won't be much movement. Would be solved by China diplomatically.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Your point is if Chinese projects don't materialise the same fate awaits Chinese engineers with the connivance of the PA? Maybe if cpec gets completely cancelled.

    Otherwise there are many projects planned in numerous sectors. Some will materialise where others do not.
    No, that's not my point. CPEC will not get cancelled. If CPEC gets cancelled, all Chinese go back to China. PA doesn't have any gain in that. The trick is to keep the Chinese invested, the money flowing and creating enough distractions to have the Chinese invested and more money flowing. The idea is for PA to control the whores and let the Chinese run the whorehouse.

    First of all we have to understand why the Chinese have committed 62 billions dollars (which I'm sure will go up) in a highly unstable Islamic country prone to terrorist attacks by 20 different Islamic terrorist groups. Trade is what China wants, 100%. What else?

    Just like the SCO, security is China's main concern now w.r.t. Xinjiang. A restive China can forget trade and development as well as it's hegemonic designs in the ECS and the SCS. About Taiwan, about Arunachal etc. As also by-passing the IOR. String of pearls etc. We have talked about this earlier. Any unrest in Xinjiang will spread to mainland China sooner than later. A bone here and there keeps intel from Pak flowing, just what the Americans have been doing, as also the PA remains in service 24X7. Trade, jobs, security, and a shortcut to the warm waters of Gwadar. The American presence in Afghanistan is a concern too. But this is probably what China thinks. I think, a stable China creates problems everywhere else, and it's their time to feel the heat.

    PA and ISI would take kickbacks in some way or the other, and yes the same fate awaits some Chinese businessmen who do not follow the established protocols. Not that Chinese businessmen won't pay up, but the ISI is a hydra, having deep state within a deep state, within a deep state. With billions flowing into Pakistan, everybody, even the peon in the ISI, would try to milk the Chinese. The Chinese would have to keep the feudal lords happy. The different political and Islamic parties happy.

    Then there are the small businesses in Pak which are on their last legs and would get decimated later due to the flow of Chinese goods. These businesses have already aired their concerns to the GoP and are not happy at all. You do know guns are cheaper than smartphones in Pakistan, and mercenaries can be hired for as low as 10K Pak rupees. Then there are the Balochis, Sindhis. And probably more unsatisfied groups waiting for their share of the blood money. There are too many mouths to feed in Pakistan, and the Chinese' reliance on only the PA would be short-lived.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The Chinese have chosen not to publicise the death of that Chinese couple. Otherwise it could affect people to people relations between the two countries.
    They both (Pak and China) did a little bit, blaming SKorea and religion (Christianity) in an indirect way.
    Last edited by Oracle; 16 Jun 17, at 18:17.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Fomenting rebellion in xianjiang. Americans will keep the Paks onside for a long time.
    Right. Add to it a mainland stir demanding democracy. Allah-hu-Akbara.
    See, US doesn't actually need the PA & ISI to do that. The deep state within the deep state in the ISI can do the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I think the purpose of Chinese in gwadar is to reassure the Paks over their growing naval disparity into the future with India. We are the threat here not the PLAN. The presence of PLAN at Gwadar is to act as a deterrent to the IN. Am not convinced it will be sufficient even into the future but if it helps the Paks sleep sound then great. Though let's not parrot out their rhetoric : )
    Reassure. Okay. But I would not discount the strategic importance of Gwadar for the time being for the PLAN. The way I see it, the Chinese are stretching themselves all over the place. Not a good call.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    A 100 destroyers there means a 100 not available elsewhere. The American border begins at the limits of Chinese EEZ wherever its designated along their eastern seaboard. The US & China are practically neighbours.
    PLAN is not USN. It doesn't have the capability to fight 2 wars at the same time. They are building up, because they are scared of the USN primarily, and the other alliances that navies of other nations are getting into in the Pacific and IOR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    80% of how much? 46billion? No. Much less, maybe. But there is no need for China to lose. They can win and by extension counter the US by persuading the Paks not to go down that path. One way to do that is state capture.
    62 billion as of now, which would go up in the course of time. Nobody can persuade the Paks not to go down that path. State capture the Chinese way is debt-trap, in which China itself would wrangle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    To understand how that works consider what Russia is doing in East Europe. This can serve as the future model for the Chinese to extend their influence via OBOR that is until the two collide at some point. Already happening in central Asia where the two vye for influence. So the Russians got us into SCO. An Indian presence adds another player into central Asia. They will cooperate with us in the north south corridor. Iran, Russia, Central Asia.
    Apart from China, India, Russia, which other member country in SCO has an economy to speak of? Those are insignificant countries. SCO doesn't add anything strategically for India, other than a small volume of trade.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What the Russians do is invest in strategic sectors. Finance, energy, media, real estate & infrastructure. If 10% of a country's gdp is due to these investments then the sponsor has become influential. If it crosses 20% then it's bordering on state capture where whatever recipient govt will defend the sponsors interests over its own. Case in point here is Bulgaria. A nato ally which Russia has significant control over. The way they hook players is offer way above what the market will offer for projects and keep doing it and if a problem arises threaten to go public in the country concerned. Blackmail. So not quite losing 80%.
    I don't know how much the Russians charge as interest, but India charges 1% and even less in some cases. Soft loans. Not the same with China. Plus with Chinese loans, Chinese equipment have to be bought from Chinese companies, low skilled jobs go to Chinese labor imported from China. China does it so that their people have jobs and companies have orders and the returns are highly significant. Pak people won't gain much from CPEC. It's all about Chinese interests. They can get away doing that in Sri Lanka, Africa, but not in Pakistan.

    Read this,Chinese loans may put Bangladesh in debt trap . In this case, it would be India pushing the Bangladeshis not to fall in Chinese debt-trap.

    I will try to get another article about how the Chinese go on about their business in other countries. I have got like 1000s of links in my bookmarks, and it's a headache to get to the article I need. Do you know any application that can help?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Some suspect Trump is similarly ensnared. That the Russians are keeping his businesses from bankruptcy. Lot of excited Americans these days. Comprehending the American political scene has become as difficult as Pakistan.
    Hahaha. I also suspect this and also that he knows he probably won't be in the job much longer, so making laws that support businesses like his.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If the Chinese can replicate this in Pakistan and other countries then they create buffers along the way. It's a big ask but possible if many things come together.
    I'm sure the CIA is taking a lot of interest.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Reclaiming lost territory. Not encroaching on others. We're never giving up our claims.
    Yeah, but I heard a rumor that during Vajpayee days the Kashmir issue was almost solved. Kashmir remains with India, and PoK remains with Pak, how much of this is true? The Indian Army is stretched in Bhutan too, keeping an eye on the PLA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    But we've shown a willingness to go beyond the usual. Won't be the last time. Not like earlier when the odds we would cross the border were much lower. As to the effect it will take time. It might look like nothing has changed.
    Agree. Casualties, civilian as well as Army, police are announced on the media, but on the other side the ISPR claims only civilian deaths. And then goes to UN and complains about it. Keeping the relevance high. Which army does that? Professionalism has given way to a Jihadi narrative in the PA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    See previous reply. We have become less predictable. If Chinese influence grows in pakistan they would prefer we stick to our side of the border. They do not see us as a threat on the Chinese border as they haven't built up their military infrastructure to the point it is on their east.
    That will not work with the Paks. I am telling you again. We can agree to disagree and let time decide that.
    Btw, in the Indo-China border, even God cannot build a Shanghai like infrastructure. Whatever the Chinese could, they have already done. We have troops and tanks, and our soldiers are acclimatized in that thin oxygen environment, the Chinese are not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Conventional
    We are not going to go for a war with the Paks. Not yet.

    Unless,
    #1. Pushed too far
    #2. Pushed far and Modi's ratings fall, even then those probably would be SoF actions, aided with air-strikes in PoK terror camps and some PA military infrastructure. That's it.
    Last edited by Oracle; 17 Jun 17, at 16:36.

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