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Thread: CPEC and Developments

  1. #166
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Pakistan had shared the draft of the LTP with China early this year. Beijing has proposed some changes in the plan that the federal authorities have not accepted yet. In case the two sides say yes to the revised plan, the agreement will be signed during the 7th JCC meeting scheduled to take place on November 21 in Islamabad
    Long term plan has not been finalised yet

  2. #167
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The Americans must realize that out of 180 terrorists that have been eliminated in this year, 102 were foreigners. The problem is therefore of ‘global jihad’ and not of Azadi.
    Impressive tally

    There are number of geopolitical parallels and contrasts that could be drawn between Afghanistan and Kashmir as far as the US is concerned. Both Afghanistan and Kashmir are victims of global jihad emanating from Pakistan. Both have been consumed by Wahabism. The US has found resolution of Afghanistan problem by political means elusive. The country continues to suffer on account of the democratic template that has failed to satisfy most segments.

    On the other hand Kashmir, which is confined to only seven percent of the total area of Jammu and Kashmir, has been exploiting and misusing overdose of democracy. People living in seven percent of the area have been lording over 93% of the territory in perpetuity. The three main regions, i.e. Ladakh, Jammu and the Valley, have different religious and cultural demography, however, the people of the Valley have been trampling over the territorial sentimentality of Jammuites and Ladakhis.

    The US must also realize that unlike Pakistan, India has not used aircraft, tanks, artillery guns, helicopter gunships against its own people. Unlike Kashmir, jihadi terror attacks within Pakistan have not been by foreigners.

    This author is of the firm belief that Pakistan is a transient reality. Ethnicity will finally prevail over religion as in the case of Bangladesh

    Jinnah did not realize that Urdu is not the language of the Muslims of the subcontinent. One major reason for East Pakistan becoming Bangladesh was that the Bengalis repudiated and rejected Urdu as the language of a new skewed entity called Pakistan. In very large parts of Pakistan, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, the Urdu language still is viewed with disdain and hostility. There is also nothing known as Islamic architecture, yes there is definitely Persian or Central Asian architecture.

    What Pakistan refers as Azad Kashmir is a very tiny portion i.e six percent of J&K, i.e. the tail of a kite called PoK.

    the majority of inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan, predominantly Shias continue to be emotionally integrated with India. Gilgit-Baltistan, constitutes about 80 percent of PoK. This area, excluded from Pakistan’s so called’ Azad Kashmir’ was till recently named as ‘Northern Areas’, as if it was just a just a territorial entity, devoid of heart and soul. It is this attitude that prevented Pakistan from claiming the dead bodies of Shia soldiers of Northern Light Infantry during the Kargil War. But for this attitude Pakistan would not have gifted more than 5000 sq km of Gilgit-Baltistan territory to China in 1963 and subsequently put the entire area at disposal of the Chinese for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. No motherland jettisons its territories in this manner. The people of Gilgit-Balistan want to be free from this China-Pak yoke.

    Abdullah finds the geopolitical narrative on J&K slipping away from his grasp. Article 35(A) may be killed by judiciary, the Hurriyat is in docks, and the prevailing notion of stake holders is fast expanding to embrace all Indians, thanks to the TV debates. Chinese stakes in the region have become acute given the strategic thrust by way of CPEC. The US will do everything to contest this Chinese strategic thrust. This partly explains the recent visit of the US diplomat.

    Some people living in seven percent of the area i.e. valley, particularly the Abdullahs and Muftis, have taken their ruler status for granted and think that they have the divine right to decide the territorial status of rest of the remaining 93 percent of the area. They think it is their divine right to parcel away territories of the state to Pakistan and China. They also nurture the mistaken belief that together with Pakistani Punjabi they will lord over Laddakhis, Shias of Kargil and Jammui ..

    Well, Indians have decided to no more allow the global jihadi narrative to be masqueraded as territorial narrative. Nuclear weapons or no nuclear weapons, the Pakistan military, Mr Abdullah must realize which is high on hatred and low on enduring courage is bound to dissolve because of its reliance on dubious courage of jihadis.
    Good points

    Author's managed to segue into numerous areas quite seamlessly there

  3. #168
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    China's dream of global dominance is cracking at early stages

    NEW DELHI: China's ambitious dream to dominate the world is coming undone right in the neighbourhood—something it least expected when it launched One Belt One Road (OBOR) at a powerful summit in May attended by dozens of state heads and representatives.

    Inspired by the Silk Road, the medieval trade routes between Europe and Asia, the OBOR project will be a vast network of sea and land routes across dozens of countries. It will impact 4.4 billion people. China is said to be spending $1 trillion on it. It is not one project but six major routes which will include several railways line, roads, ports and other infrastructure. China claims these economic corridors will not only build infrastructure in countries that cannot afford to do it themselves but also boost global trade. Most of the countries in Asia and all of India's neighbours, except Bhutan, are willing to take part in the project.

    A few days ago, Pakistan turned down China's offer of assistance for the $14-billion Diamer-Bhasha Dam. Pakistan has asked China to take the project out of the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPECBSE -4.45 %)—a part of OBOR—and allow it to build the dam on its own. The reason: it found China's conditions exploitative.

    Experts have warned CPEC is China's colonial ploy to create a permanent foothold in Pakistan. A good illustration is the deal Sri Lanka has signed with China recently.

    Sri Lanka has signed a $1.1 billion deal with China for control and development of the deep-sea port of Hambantota. A state-run Chinese company will have a 99-year lease on the port and about 15,000 acres for building an industrial zone. In the past few years, China gave Sri Lanka big loans to build infrastructure. Now, Sri Lanka is unable to repay those loans. It is leasing out land to China to repay its loans. Part of the money it gets by leasing out the Hambantota port will go into repayment of Chinese loans. This is how China sneaks into a country on the back of costly loans.

    A few days before Pakistan took back the dam project from China, another neighbouring country, Nepal, cancelled a deal with a Chinese company to build Budhi Gandaki hydropower project. Nepal's deputy PM accused the Chinese company of irregularities.

    China's strategy to grab land and assets in smaller, less-developed countries is simple: it gives them loans on high rates for infrastructural projects, gets equity into projects, and when the country is unable to repay the loan, it gets ownership of the project.

    Expect this scenario to unfold in dozens of small countries in Asia and Africa if OBOR project becomes a reality. Touted as a global partnership by China, OBOR is actually an exploitative, colonial stratagem to gain vital assets in small countries.

    From its early reception, it is clear OBOR faces difficulties even in countries that count China as a friend. Incidents in Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan have cast serious doubts over China's project to dominate the world through investments in infrastructure.

  4. #169
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    A few days ago, Pakistan turned down China's offer of assistance for the $14-billion Diamer-Bhasha Dam. Pakistan has asked China to take the project out of the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPECBSE -4.45 %)—a part of OBOR—and allow it to build the dam on its own. The reason: it found China's conditions exploitative.
    Wow, this was unexpected.

    For years we've blocked them from getting funding from multilateral institutions because this project is in POK. Then CPEC happened and we no longer had a say

    Now the Paks pull out unilaterally. Where are they going to get $14bn, this dam project is finished. They don't have the funds to do it themselves nearly twenty years later after they conceived of the project

    Still this shows the Paks can push back when they want to

    How many other mega projects in POK left now i wonder and whether this will influence our position on CPEC.

    As clearly, the Chinese don't get control of the land here though that wouldn't entirely be a bad thing from a Pak pov.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Nov 17, at 17:21.

  5. #170
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    I read somewhere the cost of the dam being $5 billion. Then, it increased to $14 B.

    $5 B for a dam? Titanium coated dam?

    DE, you haven't factored the PA. Wait for a while.

  6. #171
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The cost is $14 bn, they were hoping to get $4bn from the Chinese and the remainder from elsewhere. Then they rolled it into CPEC and $46 billion became $60bn

    Agree, this is just negotiating tactic, let's see if the Chinese come back with a more accomodative offer

  7. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The cost is $14 bn, they were hoping to get $4bn from the Chinese and the remainder from elsewhere. Then they rolled it into CPEC and $46 billion became $60bn

    Agree, this is just negotiating tactic, let's see if the Chinese come back with a more accomodative offer
    This dam includes ABM counter measures? How is the cost so high? Or this is madrassa accounting?

  8. #173
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    This dam includes ABM counter measures? How is the cost so high? Or this is madrassa accounting?
    Delays as indicated in her earlier writeup

    The delay in the project has cost Pakistan heavily in terms of a steep hike in the estimated project cost. The revised estimate stands somewhere between $12 (2008) and 14 (2013) billion, while the initial estimate had stood at $ 8 billion.
    It's a major dam with a matching price (2008). The wall itself is almost a km long, height will be 270 metres. Forget it, won't happen. If cost overruns are factored in this project will end up costing twice as much ($25bn), add inflation the bill goes up to $30bn and open near 2030. Not surprised the Chinese terms are stiff, there are some serious risks in this project. There is a difference in building such a dam in Pakistan vs in China or the US, where the overruns would be much less

    instead they will have to think large dams instead of major dams. The ROI for major dams is questionable particularly if constructed in developing countries
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Nov 17, at 20:07.

  9. #174
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    Okay and I agree. Not one country is investing even $1B in Pak, apart from China, which we know why. From your image link in your post, escalation during construction ~ $1.4 billion. What is this escalation? Allah's warriors praying on the dam for their 72 virgins?

  10. #175
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Infllation, i think that was the time the oil prices were very high. Takes 10 years to complete and that is assuming no delays

    What happens with projects is everybody under quotes to bag the contract and the real costs only come out later
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 03:55.

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Infllation, i think that was the time the oil prices were very high. Takes 10 years to complete and that is assuming no delays

    What happens with projects is everybody under quotes to bag the contract and the real costs only come out later
    From the image you posted: and assuming,

    A. Base Cost:

    #1. Direct costs - Cost of construction materials, labour fees, temporary onsite accomodation for labour and security, food, land acquisition, relocation of downstream populations etc
    #2. Indirect costs - If inflation is taken care of, what are indirect costs?
    #3. Engineering & PM - Feasibility studies, surveys, estimation. $302 million for this? No wonder the country is bankrupt.
    #4. Physical contingency - security costs

    B. Duties & Taxes - It's a government project, so what duties and taxes are payabale and to whom?

    C. Escalation during construction - You said inflation

    D. Interest during construction - interest payouts, so that is understood
    Last edited by Oracle; Yesterday at 04:55.

  12. #177
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    i can't tel you any more, you will have to look it up. The bottom line is this project is over as its unaffordable. This was apparent years ago

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    i can't tel you any more, you will have to look it up. The bottom line is this project is over as its unaffordable. This was apparent years ago
    You don't know, or you want me to find it out? Pak and China are not open about these things, so even if I try to look for, I doubt I can get anything on it open-source. Or we can let it rest as $14 billion is a little too much that Pak can afford.

  14. #179
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Just read a few articles and replied. I dont think there is a problem with the pricing as nobody has questioned it

    They can't afford this dam because it will cost more than $14 bn when completed which is already too much

    Would not surprise me if they put out something to the effect that it is still continuing which i would not take seriously
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 18:24.

  15. #180
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    They should just take that $14 billion and buy offshore windfarms or something.

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