The battle of Brexit!

[kato]

Billions for the metropole - but lipstick on a pig and a few peanuts for Cornwall.

Cornwall might be a bad example - because they're getting about as much money per person from the EU as for example Spain is.

And if you want "the other side's" interpretation: It used to be better of course; before we let in The East at the insistence of the ones across the pond. Since then Europe has realistically turned into a redistribution scheme that shovels our money eastwards.

What we see is two radical factions - generally speaking - the radical centralizers vs the radical de-centralizers

Junckers isn't a radical centralizer. He's at best a moderate centralizer. There is a radical centralization faction active in Europe, but it's mostly being kept down by The Man (which means the Commission, that committee of national governments only concerned about keeping the EU down). If you want to compare to the 20s and 30s Ebert may be a better comparison to Junckers.

What's needed now isn't the middle ground. A compromise is always just both parties giving up their identity. What's needed is to make a stand. Which we have now. That it's the UK we're making this stand against is coincidental at best; five years ago, it could have just as well been Greece. In another five years, it could as well be Poland. In either case they will have brought it on themselves; and in either case only a firm position, cutting losses, dissuading the appeasement crowd and making the tough decision to not waver will make us prevail.

If you want radical the above is what it'll look like. And i'd still consider it not radical enough.

[kato]

Wonder how the French will do on their elections and what will that mean for the EU.

65% for Macron in the second round. Predicting it.

At least if Melenchon doesn't rise anymore like he did the last few weeks. Even if i'd vote for him i don't think it'd be all for the best if we'd have a communist squaring off against the neonazi.

I do like his quote on that though. "They announce that my winning the election would bring nuclear winter, a plague of frogs, Red Army tanks and the landing of the Venezuelans - They are taking you for imbeciles". At least this time around the French election is actually somewhat fun...

On a side note, the only international organization that Melenchon does not want to pull France out of is ... yep, the EU.

[tankie]

Why?

You have what you want. Britain ist out. With all Consequences. Ok, in 2 Years but thats not a long time.
But i think, you doesn't want Britain out of the EU, you are angry about the existence of the EU as a whole.

Wrong , i really do want UK out .And yes i do want the corrupt organisation to crumble ,

[Doktor]

65% for Macron in the second round. Predicting it.

At least if Melenchon doesn't rise anymore like he did the last few weeks. Even if i'd vote for him i don't think it'd be all for the best if we'd have a communist squaring off against the neonazi.

I do like his quote on that though. "They announce that my winning the election would bring nuclear winter, a plague of frogs, Red Army tanks and the landing of the Venezuelans - They are taking you for imbeciles". At least this time around the French election is actually somewhat fun...

On a side note, the only international organization that Melenchon does not want to pull France out of is ... yep, the EU.

The same France 24's article says
"He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether."

So, what's the bet on a) him winning and b) him holding a referendum?

[kato]

Actually he wants to either push through his reform plans for the EU or if he can't do that suspend activity of France within the EU.

You can find his ideas for that here (personally find them rather reasonable): https://laec.fr/section/51/plan-a-pr...-renegociation

He's currently polling in fourth place at 18.4%, compared to Macron at 23.3%, Le Pen at 23.0% and Fillon at 19.8% and well ahead of Hamon at 8.4% (each averaged over last four polls, all taken this week). So, his chances at winning are somewhere around 0% right now, much like for Fillon and Hamon.

[Ironduke]

Cornwall might be a bad example - because they're getting about as much money per person from the EU as for example Spain is.

And if you want "the other side's" interpretation: It used to be better of course; before we let in The East at the insistence of the ones across the pond. Since then Europe has realistically turned into a redistribution scheme that shovels our money eastwards.

I'm referring to things like this - not to mention high unemployment rates in many countries - and very high unemployment rates among the youth. There are entire swaths of society in Europe that have known nothing but the dole or are reaching their 30s and have never had a paying job.

What we see is the blue banana and a just a few major metropoles with high income levels. The rest - not doing quite so well.



The vote for Brexit, at least in England, has a close correlation with income at the regional level. If the EU map were more granular, I believe we would see an even closer correlation on the map. Obviously, Scotland has different motives at play that are independent from what was going on in England/Wales.

Junckers isn't a radical centralizer. He's at best a moderate centralizer. There is a radical centralization faction active in Europe, but it's mostly being kept down by The Man (which means the Commission, that committee of national governments only concerned about keeping the EU down). If you want to compare to the 20s and 30s Ebert may be a better comparison to Junckers.

At the end of the day, I think this boils down to a difference in perspective. Some think centralization will result in only benefit, others, harm. There is both benefit and harm being caused. Some don't see benefits in the benefits, some don't see harm in the harms. I think the idea of even what you call 'moderate' centralization, in a continent with no prior experience of this and suffering the ongoing effects of high unemployment and de-industrialization - it may seem normal and moderate but to many it is not. People's personal experience, the results that they see, are what inform them whether these trends are good or bad - and they act accordingly.

[kato]

What we see is the blue banana and a just a few major metropoles with high income levels. The rest - not doing quite so well.

Don't forget the second graph on the same site that came from though:



This one shows what you want to show even better; the PIGS are being left behind, although the lack of momentum in Northern Europe and in Britain is also quite notable.

(small note for reference: Red does not mean that per-capita GDP went down. It means it grew less than average. Both the USA and Japan would be colored light red in the same graph for comparison, while e.g. Iceland with its lack of recovery would be deep red.)

This third graph would show exactly where the economic problem areas of the European Union lay:



Italy, Greece, Britain, Netherlands. Well, and Ireland, Slovenia and Cyprus. Which four countries have significant exit movements again? Oh yeah. Those first four.

What we see is the blue banana and a just a few major metropoles with high income levels. The rest - not doing quite so well.

Don't forget the second graph on the same site that came from though:



This one shows what you want to show even better; the PIGS are being left behind, although the lack of momentum in Northern Europe and in Britain is also quite notable.

(small note for reference: Red does not mean that per-capita GDP went down. It means it grew less than average. Both the USA and Japan would be colored light red in the same graph for comparison, while e.g. Iceland with its lack of recovery would be deep red.)

This third graph would show exactly where the economic problem areas of the European Union lay:



Italy, Greece, Britain, Netherlands. Well, and Ireland, Slovenia and Cyprus. Which four countries have significant exit movements again? Oh yeah. Those first four.

(for reference here: the two deeper red shades mean that effectively your disposable income - purchasing power wise - went down in 2008-2013 or stayed at virtually the same level.)

[Doktor]

That map is not worth the batteries spent to illuminate the screen.

[kato]

P.S. I've used Eurostat data to expand the disposable income thing to 2014, then transferring to how development since 2008 ran compared to that of the EU on average.

We have in the region of:

• more than +20% : Poland, Romania
• more than +10% : Estonia, Denmark, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania
• +5 to +10% : Bulgaria, Germany
• +0 to +5% : Sweden, Austria, France, Belgium, Croatia, Finland.
• -0 to -5% : United Kingdom
• -5 to -10% : Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Latvia, Slovenia
• less than -10% : (none)
• less than -20% : Greece, Cyprus

Might be interesting to in addition put this in relation to net payouts and contributions...

[kato]

That map is not worth the batteries spent to illuminate the screen.

Why, because it does not support an anti-EU agenda?

[Doktor]

Actually, it kinda does.

Because it says Balkans is better than France or most of Scandinavia

[tankie]

It looks like there could be another EU earthquake on the cards as current figures in Sweden show that the Sweden Democrats are currently leading opinion polls with 27.2% of the vote – this party has already promised a referendum on EU membership.

[kato]

It looks like there could be another EU earthquake on the cards as current figures in Sweden show that the Sweden Democrats are currently leading opinion polls with 27.2% of the vote

Should it be pointed out that Breitbart's source from that is what the Swedish consider alt-right fake news media with a decidedly anti-immigrant agenda ? Okay, that all kinda goes without saying. Just mentioning it though.

Their next election is in late 2018. SD has been continuously polling at the same levels - around 20%, where they still are, longterm - since mid-2015. And they're recruiting their voters from the opposition, not the government side of things...

Because it says Balkans is better than France or most of Scandinavia

They better be given the amount of money we're shoveling over there. The EU is providing 5.3% of the Bulgarian GDP. And with Romania, well, most Romanian unemployed are now in Germany...

[tankie]

Yawwwwwwwn

[kato]