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Thread: The battle of Brexit!

  1. #961
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    Thread reopened. Please stick to the subject only. Thank you
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  2. #962
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    https://www.reuters.com/article/brit...-idUSL8N1QI6G2

    Top 5 US banks have more than 1,500 job postings in Britain

    * Hiring numbers up y-on-y in Britain, headhunters, sources say

    * Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris vie to win jobs from London

    * But US banks have less than 200 job vacancies there

    By Maya Nikolaeva and Sinead Cruise

    PARIS/LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - A year before Britain is due to leave the European Union, top U.S. investment banks plan to hire far more people in London than anywhere else in Europe, indicating they expect the City will remain their main regional hub, at least in the short term.

    When Britain voted to quit the EU in the summer of 2016, analysts predicted a mass exodus of investment banking jobs from London - historically Europe’s premier financial hub - to rival centres in continental Europe.

    Banks themselves warned that thousands of London-based jobs could be lost or transferred to Europe, and named or started to beef up alternative hubs in cities like Frankfurt and Dublin.

    But as confusion reigns over what the trading relationship between Britain and the EU will look like after Brexit Day on March 29, 2019, top banks appear to be keeping plans for large scale recruitment in continental Europe on ice and investing in their well-established London offices instead.

    As of Feb. 27, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs had a total 1,544 postings for jobs in Britain open on their websites, according to a review of the websites conducted by Reuters.

    Total vacancies available in Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris - the three cities vying to woo business away from the city of London after Brexit - stood at less than 200 for the five banks.


    The five banks, which employ around 40,000 people in Britain, declined to provide official comment on their plans.

    “American banks were really quiet in 2016 and early 2017, but in the beginning of this year they are forecasting their hiring will be up (in the UK) this year compared to last year,” said Darren Burns, a director at international recruitment firm Morgan McKinley.

    This comes after a buoyant year for investment banking fees in 2017 and a return to market volatility in early 2018, which analysts believe could lead to much healthier revenues for the banks’ trading business over the coming months.

    Fees from bond and equity trading, loan syndication and mergers and acquisitions in Europe, Middle East and Africa for investment banks overall rose 19.5 percent in 2017, outperforming growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific.

    JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and BofA-Merrill Lynch took a 23.1 percent share in investment banking fees in EMEA last year, up from 21.2 percent in 2016, according to Thomson Reuters data.

    Anne Murphy, head of the financial services practice at headhunter Odgers Berndtson, said U.S. investment banks were adding to their London-based workforce more actively than last year.

    “It is fair to say that lots of banks are waiting as long as they can before pushing the button on any continental European relocation or hiring plans and even when that happens, in the short term the numbers involved will be in the 10s rather than the thousands,” she said.

    She pointed to several large office lettings and lease extensions, and a number of initiatives in the UK capital, such as Citigroup’s recent decision to set up an innovation lab.

    LONDON EDGE
    U.S. banks have said London would almost certainly remain their primary hub in Europe irrespective of Brexit, citing a broader pool of talent, a more suitable legal and regulatory framework and an Anglo-Saxon workplace culture as factors giving the British capital an edge.

    However, they have also said relocation and hiring decisions were subject to change, depending on the shape of any deal between Britain and Brussels for the financial services sector.

    “London will always be super important - all the banks are having to have between 6,000 and 10,000 people each here,” said a senior source at one of the five U.S. banks. “But we have a long way to go before we can drawn any long-term conclusions about how one city ranks in importance over another.”

    JP Morgan has the most openings, with 593 vacancies posted on its careers website in Britain versus 10 in Germany and 19 in Ireland, as of Feb. 27. The bank has said it could eventually move more than 4,000 jobs out of Britain because of Brexit, but in the short term it forecasts between 500 and 1,000 moves.

    Goldman Sachs is hiring 385 people in Britain and Citi 277, while Morgan Stanley and BofA Merrill Lynch are recruiting 191 and 98 people respectively.

    The London hiring numbers are higher than last year at least two of the five U.S. banks, sources at those banks said, but pointed out that the numbers do not only involve classic investment banking roles but also IT and operations staff.

    MAJOR HUB
    Some bankers have said they were reassured by a meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May earlier this year, where they were told that the future of financial services was a core government priority.

    The lobbying efforts by rival financial centres, such as Paris or Frankfurt, have not yet had a significant impact. France has over the past year-and-a-half stepped up efforts to attract bankers by promising tax deductions and school places.

    Out of the five banks’ 191 jobs on offer in the three busiest European financial centres, 133 are in Ireland, 47 in Frankfurt, and just 11 in France.

    Citigroup, which has said it would headquarter its EU trading operations in Frankfurt due to Brexit, has already started to hire for a risk analytics team in the city.

    “While we will continue to operate in the UK market, we also need to develop a new solution for the EU market,” Citi said in the job posting for the roles.

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch is hiring in Ireland a financial accountant who will “carry out regulatory reporting to provide to the Central Bank of Ireland for the first entity, who expects to grow by the year end following Brexit”.

    The bank has 98 vacancies in Britain. A source familiar with its hiring plans said that “the level of replacement represents ordinary course of business”.
    (Editing by Silvia Aloisi and Sonya Hepinstall)

  3. #963
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    Seems the majority of British people may be in favour of remaining now; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43336351

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    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/brex...tudy-says.html

    Study claims no-deal scenario would cost the UK 1.4% and the EU27 about 0.2% of their GDP.
    A FTA that basically keeps the UK in the Common Market would still cost the UK 0.9% and the EU27 0.1% of their GDP.

  5. #965
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    I still don't know whats going to be done about the 'Irish problem' (and don't I wish I had a pound for every time someone asked that question in a British Cabinet!)

    If they put the proposed 'hard' border along the frontier with Southern Ireland then the Catholics will probably walk. If they put it between Northern Ireland and the rest of GB then the protestant hardliners probably will. EU membership gave both sides something of what they wanted without anyone anyone losing face. Now what?
    Last edited by Monash; 14 Mar 18, at 12:52.

  6. #966
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/brex...tudy-says.html

    Study claims no-deal scenario would cost the UK 1.4% and the EU27 about 0.2% of their GDP.
    A FTA that basically keeps the UK in the Common Market would still cost the UK 0.9% and the EU27 0.1% of their GDP.

    Is that over the space of a year? or more?

    UK government analysis reveals a no-deal Brexit, in which Britain would trade with the EU on World Trade Organization terms, would reduce growth by 8 percent compared with current projections, a Canada-style free-trade agreement by 5 percent and staying in the single market by 2 percent. Every region in the U.K. would be negatively affected in all the scenarios. Free-trade deals with other countries would not offset the lost growth, according to the report, with a boost of just 0.2 percent from a deal with the U.S.

    This is over the period of 15 years. Of course the quitters just call this fake news and dismiss it.

    The UK is fixated by Free Trade deals, but sounds like they dont have a huge impact. Certaintly no replacement for the European Single Market.

  7. #967
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    Is that over the space of a year? or more?
    Average annual cost compared to current GDP.

  8. #968
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monash View Post
    I still don't know whats going to be done about the 'Irish problem' (and don't I wish I had a pound for every time someone asked that question in a British Cabinet!)

    If they put the proposed 'hard' border along the frontier with Southern Ireland then the Catholics will probably walk. If they put it between Northern Ireland and the rest of GB then the protestant hardliners probably will. EU membership gave both sides something of what they wanted without anyone anyone losing face. Now what?
    what do you mean 'probably walk'?

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    A nighttime walkabout with a gas canister in hand...

  10. #970
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    what do you mean 'probably walk'?
    Money, lots and lots of British taxpayers money poured indefinitely into NI at the expense of all the other regions.

  11. #971
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monash View Post
    Money, lots and lots of British taxpayers money poured indefinitely into NI at the expense of all the other regions.
    I'm not sure I follow you here.... (I am from Northern Ireland!)

  12. #972
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    I'm not sure I follow you here.... (I am from Northern Ireland!)
    Only that as you also commented, wherever they decide to put the 'hard' border one side or the other is going to be offended and threaten to walk away from the accords. That being the case the only way I can see Westminster being able to calm things down is for Parliament to rain money (in large amounts) down on NI and basically buy both sides off.

    This means people like your good self may well end up the beneficiaries of generous government bribes (sorry I meant grants) for decades to come. And these grants will have to be far more generous than those given to other parts of the Isles if they are to going to work.

    'Independence' looks like it could be expensive.
    Last edited by Monash; 15 Mar 18, at 12:08.

  13. #973
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    The UK and EU have agreed on a "large part" of the agreement that will lead to the "orderly withdrawal" of the UK.

    Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David Davis said the deal on what the UK calls the implementation period was a "decisive step".

    But issues still to be resolved include the Northern Ireland border.

    The transitional period is set to last from 29 March, 2019 to December 2020, and is intended to smooth the path to a future permanent relationship.

    Mr Barnier said there was also an agreement on the rights of 4.5m EU citizens in the UK and the 1.2m UK citizens in the EU after Brexit, including giving EU citizens arriving in the UK during the transition the same rights and guarantees as those who arrive before Brexit.

    The proposed deal will include an emergency "backstop" option to avoid a hard border that could see Northern Ireland effectively staying in parts of the single market and the customs union - a move which Theresa May has opposed.

    The UK will also be able to negotiate and sign trade deals during the transition period.

    Both the UK and the EU hope the terms of an agreement on the transitional period can be signed off by Mrs May's fellow leaders at the EU summit this week.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43456502

  14. #974
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    Yep, a "large part".

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  15. #975
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    Brexit: Ministers suffer nuclear defeat in Lords

    The government has been defeated twice in the House of Lords over its plans for nuclear co-operation after Brexit.

    Peers voted by 265 to 194 to insist the UK should not withdraw from the European nuclear agreement, Euratom, until a replacement deal is in place.

    They also backed a plan requiring the UK to report to Parliament regularly on its future arrangements with Euratom.

    MPs are likely to try and overturn the changes to the Nuclear Safeguards Bill when it returns to the Commons.

    Euratom, an association which is legally separate from the EU but governed by the EU's institutions, covers issues such as the transport of radioactive materials, including those used in medical treatments, or in nuclear power stations.

    The government has said it wants to establish a new domestic nuclear regime as well as negotiate a nuclear agreement with the EU once the UK leaves on 29 March 2019.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43476337

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