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  • Originally posted by zara View Post
    Not sure where you got the 90Billion figure for Germany alone, everything I've read put the trade deficit for the whole of Europe at 70 billion... do you mean trade defecit? Or something else.

    https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
    http://researchbriefings.files.parli...1/CBP-7851.pdf

    Remember the EU parliament has to ratify any Brexit deal so all countries get a say. Also The Council must approve of the progress Barnier makes, so they also have influence there. In the end each individual country gets a veto on the deal negotiated.

    True that the larger economies weild greater influence, but thats hardly much different to how England weilds dispro-portinate power over the NI, Scotland, Wales and Gibraltar.
    Thanks for correcting me. Cooking at the same time....not concentrating fully

    German exports in 2016
    Third largest - United Kingdom: $95.1 billion which is 7.1% of German exports
    Added to
    French exports in 2016
    Fifth largest United Kingdom: $34.8 billion which is 7.1% of french exports
    Total =$129.9 billion

    UK Exports in 2016
    Germany: $43.6 billion (10.7%)
    France: $25.9 billion (6.3%)
    Total =$69.5 billion which is effectively half of what we buy from them.

    Thats a lot of money! and there is absolutely no way any sane person would jeopardise that trade
    Last edited by Toby; 21 Sep 17,, 21:45.

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    • Originally posted by zara View Post
      So the leaks say that tomorrow May will offer to pay into the EU up until the end of 2020 in return for a 2 year transition period in the single market but an alternative customs union that allows us to make trade deals outside the EU. That would be awesome if the EU said yes, but its a terrible deal for them. Even if they did accept the bill (said to be worth €20 billion), the UK have still to propose a workable solution for Ireland (Wet border) and rights on EU citizens before the member states will allow Barnier to talk about a future trade deal. Cant see how the EU can accept this as anything other than a starting point..
      Ireland will be given special status...but like I said I reckon Calais will also...It's the only intelligent solution....but these are negotiations and nobody's really shown their hand yet..

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      • Originally posted by Toby View Post
        Ireland will be given special status...but like I said I reckon Calais will also...It's the only intelligent solution....but these are negotiations and nobody's really shown their hand yet..
        Still no ones explained how that can work.
        By 'Calais having special status'.. does that mean the whole of the EU?

        I guess thats one innovative way to solve it. All 27 leave the single market and immeadiately join the the brand new British single Market and Customs Union.
        Well move the ECJ to Manchester and everyone's happy.

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        • Messy init....but the horse has already bolted..they need to face the new reality. Something the EU are proving they are not very good at....again!

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          • Just watched Mays florence speech..

            So she wants a bigger deal than Canada, but outside the single market and customs union with a transition phase. For this well pay our normal fees up till 2021 (no mention of the rebate). Im suprised she didnt explicity say that the UK could forge trade deals with 3rd countries during this period.

            EU nationals rights would be codified into British law so no need for the ECJ, but British courts could if they wanted 'refer to the ECJ'.

            EU migrants to register during the transition period.

            No mention of divorce bill, and no details on the Irish border.

            Spent 7 minutes talking about how great the British are.


            I imagine the EU will welcome the payments for the transition period, but will want to make clear that this is not the same as the divorce bill.
            Guy Verhostadht has already said that the Migrant registration scheme is unacceptable.

            As Article 50 states in order to extend the 2 year period, ALL member states must agree. The republic of Ireland will never agree to anything but a wet border, but the DUP who hold the government to ransom would sooner bring down the government than allow this to happen. So neither the EU, nor the British government will be able to pass the votes required to deliver the transition period!

            I'm rapidly losing hope for any deal at all...
            Last edited by zara; 22 Sep 17,, 19:11.

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            • Originally posted by zara View Post
              I imagine the EU will welcome the payments for the transition period, but will want to make clear that this is not the same as the divorce bill.
              Actually to a large extent it is. Most of the divorce bill consists of contributions to EU programs that the UK has signed up for until 2020 (i.e. for the current budget round, 2014-2020); the divorce bill summed these up and added around 20 billion or so for the EU pension fund. That latter item would still be subject to negotiation, but May's strategy here is pretty much that she can sell a one-off 20 billion payment to the British public much better than 60 billion.

              It would also be acceptable for the EU in this regard if this was only about money - but we all know it isn't.

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              • Originally posted by zara View Post
                No mention of divorce bill, and no details on the Irish border.
                She reiterated that the UK will not accept “physical infrastructure at the border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. So it looks like it will be the EU that imposes border controls.... ??

                Spent 7 minutes talking about how great the British are.
                Only 7?...letting the side down there


                I imagine the EU will welcome the payments for the transition period, but will want to make clear that this is not the same as the divorce bill.
                Of course it will, that's all the EU is about. Extorting money to pay for their pensions etc

                Guy Verhostadht has already said that the Migrant registration scheme is unacceptable.
                Tree..Rope...! can you guess what it is yet?

                As Article 50 states in order to extend the 2 year period, ALL member states must agree. The republic of Ireland will never agree to anything but a wet border,
                So it agrees with the British Government then...

                but the DUP who hold the government to ransom would sooner bring down the government than allow this to happen. So neither the EU, nor the British government will be able to pass the votes required to deliver the transition period!
                The DUP do not hold the government to ransom. If you talk to people in the North from the loyalist areas they do not want a hard border with the south. All they want is that their allegiances be respected. You don't need a hard border to do that.

                I'm rapidly losing hope for any deal at all...
                Of course not...You're a pessimist
                Last edited by Toby; 23 Sep 17,, 09:56.

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                • Originally posted by kato View Post
                  but we all know it isn't.
                  All? Really???? hmm...do you have a graph or chart to prove that inaccuracy?

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                  • Originally posted by Toby View Post
                    She reiterated that the UK will not accept “physical infrastructure at the border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. So it looks like it will be the EU that imposes border controls.... ??
                    Yep, like I said, no details. Cake and eat it once again.

                    The DUP do not hold the government to ransom. If you talk to people in the North from the loyalist areas they do not want a hard border with the south. All they want is that their allegiances be respected. You don't need a hard border to do that.
                    Yes, the solution the DUP has offered is for Eire to 'wise up and leave the EU'.

                    Of course not...You're a pessimist
                    A pessimist is what a fantasist calls a realist.

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                    • Originally posted by zara View Post
                      Yep, like I said, no details. Cake and eat it once again.
                      Be a change from the EU getting the cake and eating it



                      Yes, the solution the DUP has offered is for Eire to 'wise up and leave the EU'.
                      That'd work....Eire biggest trading partner is the UK after all


                      A pessimist is what a fantasist calls a realist
                      No, a realist becomes a pessimist when a fantasist calls ; )

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                      • Originally posted by Toby View Post
                        She reiterated that the UK will not accept “physical infrastructure at the border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. So it looks like it will be the EU that imposes border controls.... ??
                        I wonder whether legally under international law such a ridiculous imposition would make a case for preemptive invasion.

                        Just mentioning it.

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                        • Originally posted by kato View Post
                          I wonder whether legally under international law such a ridiculous imposition would make a case for preemptive invasion.

                          Just mentioning it.
                          Its not the English that want a divided Ireland...its the Northern Irish of Scottish descent that remain loyal to the crown, that you would have to win over. Good luck with that scenario ..lol

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                          • Nigel nails it again!



                            Last edited by Toby; 23 Sep 17,, 18:43.

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                            • Originally posted by Toby View Post
                              Its not the English that want a divided Ireland...its the Northern Irish of Scottish descent that remain loyal to the crown, that you would have to win over. Good luck with that scenario ..lol
                              No, no, not invading Belfast. Invading London. They'd probably be a lot more welcoming too.

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                              • Originally posted by kato View Post
                                No, no, not invading Belfast. Invading London. They'd probably be a lot more welcoming too.
                                Have you been to London recently? ......Already been done pal! lol

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