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Thread: The battle of Brexit!

  1. #331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    They need to stop playing around and get Stormont back up and running...Ireland doesn't need anymore uncertainty

    Interesting facts I just read in the Telegraph apparently just 410 votes in various marginal seats would have given Theresa the right numbers....She also increased on the number of votes from previous election.....So if she'd proven to be a better debater and turned up .....and not looked so arrogant who knows ...As it is The Scottish Tories have given her another shot...Who'd of predicted that!

    You can look at it other ways.. the Liberals lost by 2 votes in Fife, 45 in richmond and 300 odd somewhere else.
    May was awful, but Corbyn needs to stop acting like he won

  2. #332
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Since it hasn't been mentioned here:

    The European Court of Justice a few days ago ruled in a completely unrelated case that while it accepted the existing division within the UK, from the EU side it and its dependencies are to be seen as a single state.

    Relevant to Brexit insofar as Europe just upped the ante with regard to required settlements for any kind of post-Brexit border treaty - in other words, it's now four freedoms or bust for the UK if it doesn't want to lose the treaty it wants to get over Spain's Gibraltar veto. The same pretty much goes for Northern Ireland.
    If Germany doesn't want another Irish bailout, then the EU would be wise to treat Northern Ireland at least as a friendly province. The republic is the EUs posterchild for how the Troikras austerity worked. It's likely a future EU territory anyway. Passport Controls at Belfast and Larne - keep NI in the EEA, thats the best solution for all no matter how much the DUP scream.

  3. #333
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Meeeee gloat zara ppppffffftttttt , nahhhhhhh , ahhh gwan then hahahaha yea ukip stepped aside for the tories , gorra agree tho nuttall is a wanker , yayyyyy bring back the Great God Farage ..the destroyer of youngsters futures , all hail farage , bow nown you surfs n pay homage to the God that gave you brexit ( and thats lookin dodgy ) buttttttt all hail and give human sacrifices , who you gonna vote for to sacrifice zara !! Hmmmmmmmmm . Heheheh
    Last edited by tankie; 16 Jun 17, at 23:44.


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  4. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    If Germany doesn't want another Irish bailout, then the EU would be wise to treat Northern Ireland at least as a friendly province.
    We've already calculated that. 4% GDP loss for Ireland with a hard border, less than half of the 2009 recession; about 2/3rd of Irish exports to Germany or 10% of what we're gonna squeeze out the UK for leaving.

  5. #335
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    We've already calculated that. 4% GDP loss for Ireland with a hard border, less than half of the 2009 recession; about 2/3rd of Irish exports to Germany or 10% of what we're gonna squeeze out the UK for leaving.
    4%?? How do you work that out? Sounds pretty damn optimistic to me.
    Most of the republics economy is based around a strong British economy and a strong pound. We (they?) have to re-orientate their economy as much as the UK will with a hard brexit.

    Do you only care about Germany? How about some European solidarity?
    Last edited by zara; 17 Jun 17, at 00:52.

  6. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    Meeeee gloat zara ppppffffftttttt , nahhhhhhh , ahhh gwan then hahahaha yea ukip stepped aside for the tories , gorra agree tho nuttall is a wanker , yayyyyy bring back the Great God Farage ..the destroyer of youngsters futures , all hail farage , bow nown you surfs n pay homage to the God that gave you brexit ( and thats lookin dodgy ) buttttttt all hail and give human sacrifices , who you gonna vote for to sacrifice zara !! Hmmmmmmmmm . Heheheh
    Don't know why people think Brexit is 'looking dodgy' as you say.
    Article 50 has been triggered and our government is paralysed. Guy Verstadof said that to reverse it we'd lose the rebate and have to join the euro. That closes the door for most voters. The EU economy is rising, the UKs is falling, they seem to have realised that they don't need us, despite brexiteer hallucinations.
    The UK should prepare for WTO rules, because right now thats the path of least resistance. The worst possible outcome, but least resistance nonetheless.

  7. #337
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    4%?? How do you work that out? Sounds pretty damn optimistic to me.
    Government had a think tank produce a study based on various scenarios; with a free-trade agreement with the UK - soft brexit - Ireland ends up at 1% GDP loss, and that's including a redistribution of EU contributions.

    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    Do you only care about Germany? How about some European solidarity?
    In any scenario the losses in Germany are higher than for the EU on average. We're shouldering your losses for you.

    To be exact:
    • UK as a EEA, i.e. EFTA member : EU27 -0.01%, Germany -0.06% | UK -0.40%
    • UK with free-trade agreement : EU27 -0.1%, Germany -0.1% | UK -0.7%
    • UK back on WTO rules, no treaty : EU27 -0.4%, Germany -0.3% | UK -3.0%
    • WTO rules plus trade war with UK*: EU27 -0.3%, Germany -0.4% | UK -3.5%

    * Yes, we actually calculate for that. Called the "conflict scenario". As in: WTO isn't the "worst scenario". And yes, this would be beneficial for the EU27 (but not Germany) over a simple hard brexit - due to redistribution of import/export flows with EU countries internally rearranging goods previously imported from the UK.

    Yeah, we'll have to shift some serious (investment) money into Ireland effectively. A few other countries too. But the overall effect isn't as crippling as one might think.

    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    Guy Verstadof said that to reverse it we'd lose the rebate and have to join the euro.
    That's more an automatism of course. To rejoin after Article 50 Article 49 applies. I.e. joining the EU is only possible like for any other country, mandatorily: Accept the four freedoms, accept the ECJ, fully join Schengen, join the Euro, no special snowflake treatment in any way.
    Last edited by kato; 17 Jun 17, at 01:37.

  8. #338
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    , they seem to have realised that they don't need us, despite brexiteer hallucinations.
    .
    You're trying too hard flower...Look at the size of the British economy and think about it....We're not just any old gang of mugs. I have to say though Tankie when you think about it Farage has spent a large part of his life wanting to leave the EU..then abandons ship when the wheels are put in motion..something smells distinctly odd!!!!
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  9. #339
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Yea but as he said the jobs done and he wanted his life back , but yea he "jumped " at the wrong time and if he did come back it wouldnt do much good now ( cept to piss zara off ) something smells for sure , have to wait n see .


    Trust gets you killed, love gets you hurt, and being REAL gets you hated.

  10. #340
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    Yea but as he said the jobs done and he wanted his life back , but yea he "jumped " at the wrong time and if he did come back it wouldnt do much good now ( cept to piss zara off ) something smells for sure , have to wait n see .
    He wasn't too bothered about his personal life for the last 20 years, gets what he's after and takes a backward step???? BIZARRE! and as you have regularly hinted at, the job (Brexit) isn't done and seems to be unravelling by the day. It doesn't add up!.....I reckon Zara got a sneaky one for Farage.. lol
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  11. #341
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Angela Merkle shows up at Brussels for the Brexit negotiation. A snooty Border Guard says "Name?" She replies "Angela Merkl". Then "Occupation?" Angela looks aghast and says "Nein, Nein ve are only here fur ein meeting..."


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  12. #342
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    Angela Merkle shows up at Brussels for the Brexit negotiation. A snooty Border Guard says "Name?" She replies "Angela Merkl". Then "Occupation?" Angela looks aghast and says "Nein, Nein ve are only here fur ein meeting..."
    lol......and I thought we were negotiating with 27 countries....God how thick am I????...there's only two names that count "Angela and Merkel" the rest are either bankrupt, receiving money from Germany or Irrelevant (like Malta)
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  13. #343
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    Jaguar Land Rover announces 5,000 new jobs in timely boost to UK economy

    Recruitment will take place over the next 12 months, just as UK begins talks to leave EU

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7796671.html
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  14. #344
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    This paragraph is the interesting one:
    The carmaker, which is owned by India's Tata Motors, will build its first electric vehicle, the I-PACE, in Austria but has said it wants to build such models in Britain if conditions such as support from government and academia are met.
    (it's actually imprecise, the factories in the EU are in Austria and newly built in Slovakia)

    In other words, they're preparing for Brexit and the expected customs war by separating manufacturing between Britain and the EU - and if Britain wants a sustained engagement in the future then Britain better align both its laws and its subsidies their way.

  15. #345
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    This paragraph is the interesting one:

    (it's actually imprecise, the factories in the EU are in Austria and newly built in Slovakia)

    In other words, they're preparing for Brexit and the expected customs war by separating manufacturing between Britain and the EU - and if Britain wants a sustained engagement in the future then Britain better align both its laws and its subsidies their way.
    A customs war would hurt the EU more than the UK for obvious reasons...i.e we buy more from them than they buy from us...kind of an unavoidable biggy that one! Anyway I think you'll find Kumar Bhattacharyya at WMG is where their electric car focus will be in terms of development. Anybody can dump a car factory anywhere these days. Development ? thats a big NO!


    Currently under developemet the NAIC http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/wmg/research/naic/
    Last edited by Toby; 19 Jun 17, at 22:32.
    Picture a courthouse with no fuckin laws, Picture a cathouse with no fuckin whores
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