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Thread: The battle of Brexit!

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    When the Irish voted "no" on the Lisbon Treaty (which replaced the Constitution word for word in some articles if I recall right which had been voted down by both the Dutch and French I think) they were just told to vote again! So you understand why some of us might think it is not working ideally?
    Just a small point here as this is often mis-understood outside Ireland. The first vote was a No because the voters believed that Ireland would lose its military neutrality, our permanent EU commissioner and interference on abortion laws. After the No vote, the commision gave us legal guarantees about these issues. Once we had those, the voters were happy to approve. It's an odd way to negotiate (by using referendums), but the Irish constitution demands this.
    Last edited by zara; 17 Apr 17, at 17:54.

  2. #152
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    UK General Election called for June 8th.

  3. #153
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    UK General Election called for June 8th.
    What if an Remain option wins?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  4. #154
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    It won't, Labour is on its knees and for lack of alternatives the Tories will pretty much take a homerun if they have the people vote now.

  5. #155
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    The initial problem will be overcoming the Fixed Term Parliament Act passed by the Cameron - Clegg coalition Government which stipulates 5yr Parliamentary terms. As I understand it this requires either a 2/3rd majority vote in the House of Commons or a vote of "No Confidence" in the Government before an election can even be triggered. They could also have a vote to repeal the current law on fixed terms. The Government majority is slim (around 17) so getting a 2/3rd majority would require the Opposition's support. Will they oblige? If not a "No Confidence" vote could be tried but this would require Tory MPs to vote against their own Government. Possibly the easiest way is to repeal the Fixed Term Act as this requires just a majority vote. It appears however that they are first going to try to get the 2/3rds majority needed to overcome the Act. Presumably this will moved in the House tomorrow.

    The PM's full statement (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630009) she cites the need for a strong Government during the Brexit negotiations as the prime motivation for the election;

    "Our opponents believe because the government's majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong.

    "They underestimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country.

    "Because what they are doing jeopardises the work we must do to prepare for Brexit at home and it weakens the government's negotiating position in Europe.

    "If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.

    "Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.

    "So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.
    Some will not buy that of course. The Tories are far ahead in the polls right now (20 odd points) and the Opposition Leader (Corbyn) is frankly a total loss and unelectable so it may be mere political opportunism - as I kind of suggested some time ago. Presuming that the election results in a much larger Tory majority what will be the views of the new Conservative MPs regarding Brexit? To some extent Conservative Central Office can influence candidates selected by local Constituency Parties but not absolutely. It is possible, though hardly likely, that if the Tory Party campaigned on a 'remain' stance and won the PM could then claim a mandate to repeal Article 50.

    To some extent it is bound to be another Brexit dominated campaign though in theory it will not alter the choice already made. The Liberals doubtless will say a vote for them is a vote for remain and are likely do well on this basis. UKIP are nigh on dead in the polls and have no MPs at present (Carswell having gone independent). The Labour Party are a shambles and will look for losing so they can get rid of Corbyn (who they tried to get rid of last year). In terms of Scotland it is risky at best; presuming 'leave' voters in Scotland may vote Conservative the Tories may do slightly better there but the SNP will get another majority and be able to call again for another referendum.

    There is much that will be read into it no matter what but it seems almost certain that Theresa May will get a larger majority, the LibDems do better and the Labour Party get trounced.

    The only other thing to say about it is that clearly delay any serious Brexit negotiations. It is nonsense to say that you need an election now or it would get in the way of Brexit negotiations. Article 50 negotiations take 2yrs by the Lisbon Treaty and could have been triggered last year. Even now they must end in 2019 which is before when the next election should be (2020) by the Fixed Term Act. Moreover Theresa May has consistently rejected just what she has now decided to do. My opinion of her low at best - she was a remainer but now leads the leave Party, rejected a snap election only to call one for political expediency and rejects cutting the deficit. I hope she builds some more Frigates and enlarges the army and on foreign policy she is generally ok other than the EU.
    Last edited by snapper; 18 Apr 17, at 14:09.

  6. #156
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    Hmmm, I'm getting sick of saying "this is a mistake". Corbyn can easily make this a Brexit referendum vote #2 and we're back to 51/49 with the 51% for Corbyn. Imagine that, an extreme socialist, ant-semitic, 'eat the rich' Hugo Chavez in charge of Westminster. Aye carumba.
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  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Corbyn can easily make this a Brexit referendum vote #2 and we're back to 51/49 with the 51% for Corbyn.
    Britain runs FPTP.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Britain runs FPTP.
    I know. FPTP isn't that big a deal, I've voted through several elections with it.
    Labour only needs a minor swing to take govt, a re-energised anti-brexit vote will do that for them.
    FPTP biases against small parties, not large ones.
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  9. #159
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    And how will this affect the plod investigation that is going on into the tory election overspending scandal ??????? The 20 seat majority will be slashed if the ones under investigation are found guilty and deselected , it will then have seriously backfired on May , and this BS ref brexit needing negotiation , hang on a mo its only supposed to take 2 years !!!!!! But they are in power until 2020 thats another 3 years so why call an election njow , the plot thickens watson forsooth .

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Corbyn can easily make this a Brexit referendum vote #2 and we're back to 51/49 with the 51% for Corbyn.
    I think you overestimate his wits. Certainly for a centralist Opposition Leader (such as Blair for example) a moderate program and strong on Europe would doubtless attract many remainers; an alliance with the Liberals might even win it but Comrade Corbyn is not of that cloth. Such compromises would dirty him perhaps. He shows every intention of fighting this election on 1980's issues with more spending for everything (apart from the Armed Forces and nuclear deterrent which would be scrapped) and fast road to bankruptcy; the old ways are the best.

    As proof of this it seems her Majesty's Opposition have backed the Government's call for an election of 8th June, giving them the majority needed to overcome the Fixed Term Act. For many of these Labour MPs it almost Turkeys voting for Christmas.

    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    And how will this affect the plod investigation that is going on into the tory election overspending scandal ?
    Likely to only result in fines at most the pertinent question being did it effectively change the result, just like the investigations in the irregularities of UKIP spending since after all there no UKIP MPs.
    Last edited by snapper; 19 Apr 17, at 17:27.

  11. #161
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    True ever since comrade carswell showed his true colours , however if the tory mp , s are found guilty it is auto deselection , as per the rules ,, oops silly me , rules haha

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Reduction through automation in manufacturing and industry was a thing of the 90s in Europe for the most part. "Industry 4.0" as the current step (hate the term, personally) mostly hits the service and administration fields - because production already is automated.
    There are tens of millions of people still living lives in these towns and cities in the US, that never came back economically. Alternating between marginal employment, underemployment, unemployment, and welfare. I'm sure there are regions of Europe where it is the same.

  13. #163
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    So the general election in June in effect is a second referendum. Sneaky basterds, wondered how they'd handle that.

  14. #164
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    I see Gina Miller has now changed tack. It's all about creating a tactical opposition now that a general election has been called.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...st-hard-brexit

    Any doubts about her are now confirmed

  15. #165
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    There are tens of millions of people still living lives in these towns and cities in the US, that never came back economically. Alternating between marginal employment, underemployment, unemployment, and welfare. I'm sure there are regions of Europe where it is the same.
    Countries within the EU are subject to a redistribution of wealth. Something that doesn't tend to happen in the states. Which is why Eastern and Mediterranean States receive massive subsides. They seem to like rewarding failure for some strange reason. Socialism = moronic economics!
    Last edited by Toby; 20 Apr 17, at 06:50.

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