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Thread: The Military–Industrial complex

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    GVChamp,



    yes, there was a Don Quixote-ish article a while back about how hipsters should all move en masse to the Midwest and thus flip those red states...:-)

    i suppose if Wichita or Buffalo suddenly beckoned with the prospect of churning out overnight millionaires or at least plentiful jobs I suspect then you might pull hipsters.

    then there's also the issue of Chinese oligarchs (mostly West coast) or Russian oligarchs (mostly East coast) adding a not insignificant amount of inflation into those prime housing markets as well.
    Nebraska may not mint millionaires,but the unemployment rate is something like 3%, isn't it? No reason why not to move there.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    it'd be a more attractive pull if it were 3% whereas the other places you mention were at, say, 12%.

    but given, for instance, that SF has an even lower unemployment rate, or how NYC has only a slightly higher one...not too hard of a choice.

    there's more than just the economic aspect, of course, which is why we see Kansas of "conservative experiment" fame finds its economy sucking so bad compared to the People's Republic of California.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it'd be a more attractive pull if it were 3% whereas the other places you mention were at, say, 12%.

    but given, for instance, that SF has an even lower unemployment rate, or how NYC has only a slightly higher one...not too hard of a choice.

    there's more than just the economic aspect, of course, which is why we see Kansas of "conservative experiment" fame finds its economy sucking so bad compared to the People's Republic of California.
    Bellow the average unemployment, low debt and an average GDP makes it "sucking so bad"?
    Interesting.
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    Bellow the average unemployment, low debt and an average GDP makes it "sucking so bad"?
    Interesting.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-recession/

    California's economy grew by 4.1 percent in 2015, according to new numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, tying it with Oregon for the fastest state growth of the year. That was up from 3.1 percent growth for the Golden State in 2014, which was near the top of the national pack.

    The Kansas economy, on the other hand, grew 0.2 percent in 2015. That's down from 1.2 percent in 2014, and below neighboring states such as Nebraska (2.1 percent) and Missouri (1.2 percent). Kansas ended the year with two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a shrinking economy. By a common definition of the term, the state entered 2016 in recession.

    ...

    Kansas’s gross domestic product is still less than it was at the end of 2011, said Menzie Chinn, an economist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who has been following Kansas’s economy. Meanwhile, the economy in the rest of the country continues to expand.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it'd be a more attractive pull if it were 3% whereas the other places you mention were at, say, 12%.

    but given, for instance, that SF has an even lower unemployment rate, or how NYC has only a slightly higher one...not too hard of a choice.

    there's more than just the economic aspect, of course, which is why we see Kansas of "conservative experiment" fame finds its economy sucking so bad compared to the People's Republic of California.
    Roflmao, let the experiment run a little further. In the 70s NYC was a borderline bankrupt city, in the 80s GM was the most profitable company in the world, and in the 90s Apple was some failed experiment that had only ever generated one decent product.

    So long-winded response below, just running through some thoughts:

    Nebraska per capita GDP is 50,000, scarcely below the California state GDP.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...GDP_per_capita
    You'll notice Texas is ahead of both of them.
    And like I mentioned to Antimony before, Oregon and Washington aren't super high-tax states, and the Plains states are in the middle of the pack. Upper Midwest States like Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota are above the average: they were settled by Nordic and German folks who were quite enamored with the Progressive Movement.


    Either way, I think these big cities are great for certain classes of jobs. You want to get into start-up? San Francisco is the place for you? I-Banking? NYC beckons. Business Consulting? You can make it big in Boston.

    But let's be honest. That's not most of us. I'm a corporate accountant and can work anywhere. In fact, around here, many Fortune 500 companies are located in the suburbs (Caterpillar just located to Deerfield), so living in the city is actually a PREMIUM payment, AND you are getting screwed over on your commute. AND if you have kids, you are sending them to the vastly inferior Chicago Public School district, or paying to send them to private school. My understanding is that this is the case in San Francisco and New York City as well.

    I looked up some average salaries last night: Staff Accountants make $50k on average in the US. They make slightly BELOW average in the Chicago market, $51k in Omaha, and $56k in NYC. You make more in NYC, but that salary is going to get wiped away by taxes and sky-high rentals. Like, my Sister-In-Law pays $2100 a month for a 2bd/1ba apt in Brooklyn, which she can only afford because it's rent-controlled. And because it's rent-controlled, it's an absolute piece of shit. The interior of the building resembles a Soviet bunker, she has no oven, the gas range rarely works, the weather-stripping is horrible, there's no air conditioning, the tub is damaged beyond repair and cuts your feet when you stand it for a shower...
    I have a friend out in the Bay Area, cause, you know, she's gonna make it BIGGGGGGG! She also pays $2k a month, but she gets 1 bed and 1 bath in a shared apartment. Fun! She can easily find a job back in Chicago (her sister did, and she's making six figures now), but she's so convinced she MUST be in the Bay Area that's she never going to move back. But she's still a temp...because, you know, she's not special, she's just a normal person that should live in Kansas and deal with it.

    I have several teacher friends. One works for CPS and owns his own home in the Chicago suburbs, which he paid $240k for. His mortgage, I think, is around $900 a month. He has 3 beds and 3 baths. Factoring in his property taxes, he probably is paying $1300/month. It looks like, if he has kids, they will feed into Niles West, which has a 22 ACT average and 94% high school graduation rate. Which is perfectly fine, certainly better than the city averages!

    I also have some friends in Wisconsin that are teachers and are renting 2 bed/2 bath apartments for something like $600/month. They aren't glamorous, but in MUCH better repair than a rent-controlled hellhole in Brooklyn. They even have ovens and air conditioning and in-unit washer/dryers! Teachers! They can afford that!

    Personally, I find these arguments among Millennials for urban living to be no different than Gen Xers or Late Baby Boomers arguing that they "need" McMansions.


    I am personally of the opinion that this urban renaissance will have fully run its course by the 2040s. The Bay Area isn't even an urban renaissance, it's a tech hub through the whole suburban valley, and it will never be a full urban area like New York City is. In the long-run, there are no good bones there, and it will decay, and it will decay worse than Cleveland (though not as bad as Detroit).

    The Plains States will probably continue to empty out, but they will still be perfectly reasonable places to live for ordinary people.

    I expect Columbus, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, to come back over the next few decades.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 27 Apr 17, at 15:59.
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    GVChamp,

    Personally, I find these arguments among Millennials for urban living to be no different than Gen Xers or Late Baby Boomers arguing that they "need" McMansions.
    not really. people are usually "sticky" in terms of location, which is why there's still plenty of people living in Bomfouck, West Virginia or Middle-of-nowhere, Mississippi despite having zero economic opportunity there. location premium has always been huge, it's now just bigger than ever.

    there's gotta be an immediately obvious, pretty big pay off to attract people, even more so if the location isn't exactly the most beautiful place. hell, on a personal note, if they increased my salary here in DC by 50% to move to Omaha, I wouldn't take it. on the other hand, if they decreased it 25% to move to SF, I -would-...even though my economic situation would be significantly more precarious.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    If that's what you want to do with your money, be my guest! Just don't expect anything other than the world's smallest violin if you can barely make it in San Francisco and your salary is the American median.

    Same if you're still living in a crappy rural area where the major industry left town.

    I definitely get the location stickiness...my family is all in the Chicagoland area. But it shouldn't be on other people to pay for that. Same for the new suburbs that are not able to upkeep their expenses: they shouldn't be expecting a free ride from the state or the feds for their infrastructure.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    If that's what you want to do with your money, be my guest! Just don't expect anything other than the world's smallest violin if you can barely make it in San Francisco and your salary is the American median.
    Blows my mind reading about these software engineers out in CA making 6 figures and still practically homeless
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

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    GVChamp,

    I definitely get the location stickiness...my family is all in the Chicagoland area. But it shouldn't be on other people to pay for that. Same for the new suburbs that are not able to upkeep their expenses: they shouldn't be expecting a free ride from the state or the feds for their infrastructure.
    not sure how that should be legislated.

    in any case, given that those places also happen to be the economic engines of the US, they also provide the most tax.

    but yes, i agree: i'm not sympathetic to those trope upper-middle class articles that start with "I make $150K a year and I hardly qualify as middle-class in X city".
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Blows my mind reading about these software engineers out in CA making 6 figures and still practically homeless
    not too hard to imagine when those engineers are competing for space with a huge number of vested CEOs, and Chinese plutocrats.

    of course in SF's case it also has to do with an enormous amount of NIMBYism and urban planning/zoning rules. the height restrictions, in particular.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KSNGSP

    Mind-blowing how this is shrinking. Well, I am not an economist at the UWM.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    GVChamp,



    not sure how that should be legislated.

    in any case, given that those places also happen to be the economic engines of the US, they also provide the most tax.

    but yes, i agree: i'm not sympathetic to those trope upper-middle class articles that start with "I make $150K a year and I hardly qualify as middle-class in X city".
    Feds: $100,000 ‘Low Income’ In Parts Of Bay Area

    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/201...eo-county-hud/

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    doktor,

    Mind-blowing how this is shrinking. Well, I am not an economist at the UWM.
    the article said it shrank for two quarters. it grew enough in Q2 to prevent it from an yearly drop. also enough to place Kansas as #44 out of 50 US states for growth.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    doktor,



    the article said it shrank for two quarters. it grew enough in Q2 to prevent it from an yearly drop. also enough to place Kansas as #44 out of 50 US states for growth.
    How is that a sucking bad economy? I remember when US economy eas really shrinking, jobs were lost and debt rose, you minced better words
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it'd be a more attractive pull if it were 3% whereas the other places you mention were at, say, 12%.

    but given, for instance, that SF has an even lower unemployment rate, or how NYC has only a slightly higher one...not too hard of a choice.

    there's more than just the economic aspect, of course, which is why we see Kansas of "conservative experiment" fame finds its economy sucking so bad compared to the People's Republic of California.
    Ahe gilded economy. What is the bulk of California minus the Bay Area and Hollywood. In Arkansas we have Bentonville the home of Wal-Mart which acts as a sort of economic focal point like Silicon Valley, Wall Street or DC. If you want to sell things in the USA, you deal with Wal-Mart. You'd figure with a median income nearly 2x higher than Arkansas, the poverty rate wouldn't be in the same ball park.... seems like that money isn't making it out of the bay Area.

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