No bank exodus from London

[tantalus]

I really think that is the most likely outcome. The brexiteers were promised unicorns on a gold platter, and if the government concede the slightest thing to the EU, the press will go wild. Reality will soon bite.

I also think so, but it's unclear how bad the effects will be, short, medium and long term. It's times like these were Rumsfeld unknown unknowns are especially dangerous (a concurring international economic crises).

Incidentally, its not just the UK side, the EU will also negotiate and both sides have the potential for self-harm. Brexit must happen, sadly, both sides need to remember in the heat of talks that it's a zero-sum scenario.

[zara]

The EU do realise this. Hammond realises this. May probably does, but she's hostage to the mob. The government brexiteers are riding an imaginary rainbow off a cliff.
As the (good) Donald says 'There will be no cakes for anyone. Just salt and vinegar.'

[tantalus]

but a lack of office space is a big barrier with Dublin

Let's face it, Dublin has multiple, construction-related problems that will bottleneck against job growth. Frustrating.

but no matter what happens nobody thinks that the draw from London will compensate from the loss of trade with the UK.

That's true and worrying. At the same time, a wise person will be slow to trust any predictions, including their own, if they have attached any degree of confidence in the face of such uncertainty and complexity. I wonder if Ireland can benefit significantly in the medium to long term. Short term things look very tricky for exports and tourism.

I suspect the Irish government are overly optimistic, those in office usually are.

[tantalus]

The EU do realise this. Hammond realises this. May probably does, but she's hostage to the mob. The government brexiteers are riding an imaginary rainbow off a cliff.
As the (good) Donald says 'There will be no cakes for anyone. Just salt and vinegar.'

Agreed

[kato]

Citigroup is next:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-financial-hub

Frankfurt lobbyists currently expect any move from London to occur in three waves - the first wave is the large international investment bank holdings, happening now; the second will be other banks, beginning after Brexit is formally announced in March and lasting till mid-year; and the third will be other financial service companies, mostly around the end of the year. For both the investment holdings and other banks it's expected that only subsidiaries will be founded on the continent to keep passporting rights, with London remaining as an EU-external marketplace for them. Expected minimum total yield for Frankfurt is therefore only around 8,000-10,000 new employees too (compared to 160,000 working for banks in London now).

[Toby]

Dublin has about as much financial infrastructure as half of Manchester..Lovely place mind ...if I had to depart London I'd go there.....Frankfurt is a place where depression sets in after two days and you dream of being anywhere else...Carry on dreaming guys....

[zara]

Credit Sussie seems to be favouring Dublin as they reckon it's easier to lure staff there from London and the cost of living in Frankfurt is very high.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...id=BBBXT012617

Meanwhile investment in the Auto Industry is drying up. Brexit is becoming real!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...id=BBBXT012617

[drhuy]

I really think that is the most likely outcome. The brexiteers were promised unicorns on a gold platter, and if the government concede the slightest thing to the EU, the press will go wild. Reality will soon bite.

aint you getting tired from all of your own wishing thinking?

[zara]

aint you getting tired from all of your own wishing thinking?

Wishful? For the UK to crash out of the talks, exiting without an argreement and go to WTO rules?

[Markobee]

aint you getting tired from all of your own wishing thinking?

aint you getting tired from burying your head in the sand?

[Toby]

UK Goods (not services) trade balance figure with the EU £-86,318,048,557

Non EU £-20,819,626,855

Exports to EU £133,831,907,353

Exports to non EU £171,239,147,976

data from HM Revenue and Customs for 2015

Pretty obvious who the loser will be

[zara]

Pretty obvious who the loser will be

Yep. Everyone.

[Toby]

Yep. Everyone.

There's hope for you yet. Time to show a bit of spine... and think about the common good and not you and yours....Me and mine and so on.....