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Thread: Two Chinas and the Donald

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    DOR,

    Disrupting delicate economic structures? Like when Nixon went to China or like when Chamberlain thought it's not wise not to upset the Germans?
    Now you're mixing geopolitics and trade. They are related, but not in the historical context you're bringing up. China trade in 1972 simply didn't exist, and UK-German trade in 1939 was fairly moderate.

  2. #32
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    We've been through it...come out the other end.....tough s--t to the Chinese. It's not as if the machinery can't be move to say India or elsewhere...if it's happened here and the US it can certainly happen there. Why are the Chinese so special? Nobody else seems to be!
    No. 1 What makes you think it's "their machinery"? Over half of China's exports -- 55-60% -- are produced by foreign-invested enterprises.

    No. 2 What makes you think picking up a factory in China and dropping it down in India isn't going to result in a massive loss of productivity and an equally massive increase in the overall cost of production? Let's start with taxes, logistics, shipping and red tape ...

    No. 3 What kind of factory relocation are you talking about when you suggest American factories moved to China? Please be specific, because the vast majority that I've been in were greenfield investments.

  3. #33
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    No. 1 What makes you think it's "their machinery"? Over half of China's exports -- 55-60% -- are produced by foreign-invested enterprises.
    That's my point. Many of those companies have moved from the West. In other words all if not most of their production is now located in China (and elsewhere). I understand why, because if they didn't they'd go bust as their product would be too expensive. But pray do tell WHO paved the way and opened the Door and let Chinese goods in. THE US! and everybody else followed blindly.....

    No. 2 What makes you think picking up a factory in China and dropping it down in India isn't going to result in a massive loss of productivity and an equally massive increase in the overall cost of production? Let's start with taxes, logistics, shipping and red tape ...
    It would be gradual, Just as our trade with China has gradually increased.

    No. 3 What kind of factory relocation are you talking about when you suggest American factories moved to China? Please be specific, because the vast majority that I've been in were greenfield investments.
    Factory production that actually moved? Well how about the Textile industry for starters, unless its specialized goods it's near enough always says 'Made in China' . But these days its more the fact that the Machinery is put there by Western based companies to produce things as cheaply as possible. To my knowledge Manufacturing machinery tends to come from Germany, Switzerland, US, Japan etc and with that machinery you can make near enough anything anywhere you choose. So in effect we (the west) have made a rod for our own backs. We're basically high on cheap goods. Meanwhile our local skills base has deteriorated significantly. You guys will probably call it Post industrialization, I call it stupidity!
    Last edited by Toby; 22 Jan 17, at 12:27.

  4. #34
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post

    Factory production that actually moved? Well how about the Textile industry for starters, unless its specialized goods it's near enough always says 'Made in China' . But these days its more the fact that the Machinery is put there by Western based companies to produce things as cheaply as possible. To my knowledge Manufacturing machinery tends to come from Germany, Switzerland, US, Japan etc and with that machinery you can make near enough anything anywhere you choose. So in effect we (the west) have made a rod for our own backs. We're basically high on cheap goods. Meanwhile our local skills base has deteriorated significantly. You guys will probably call it Post industrialization, I call it stupidity!
    Even when we bring the plants back, they don't produce the same amount of jobs that use to come with them

    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/25/why...t-coming-back/

    About a year ago, Joe Biden was in Michigan to celebrate the opening of a new manufacturing plant that made “small metal clamps” used in all kinds of industries to hold wiring, hoses. Etc. in place. The largest market is the auto industry but they are sold to hundreds of other manufacturers. Depending on size, shape, and material, these parts sell for a few pennies or less. You have to make a lot of these parts to have any substantial billing numbers.

    This new plant is fully automated and runs 24/7/365 with just 14 people. Joe was quite happy saying “manufacturing is returning to America.”

    However, there is a backstory. That plant had been around for years. It had employed 600 people on two shifts. Then, the Chinese began to undercut the pricing, and the plant was no longer profitable and closed. Two years later, it reopened as a fully automated plant and regained the business because it could now manufacture cheaper than the Chinese.
    You hear people saying “We’ll manufacture in the US and export to the rest of the world.” That doesn’t work anymore either. If “small metal clamps” are needed in Africa, it is a simple process to just build a duplicate plant in Africa, find 14 people to run it, and you are in business in Africa.

    Those 600 jobs at that plant are never coming back. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever.

    Even if all 600 people that lost their jobs had the necessary qualifications to run the new plant, there are only 14 jobs. 586 people would not have an opening to apply for.

    These politicians talk about “creating new jobs.” This is a classic case of what is happening. 14 new jobs were created but they replaced 600 old jobs in the process.
    Its called Tourist Season. So why can't we shoot them?

  5. #35
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    There is also this. Something that has been said over an over. Its not China or Mexico taking our jobs. Its automation

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.80c90c8354ce

    Quick, answer this: Does America make stuff anymore?

    Anyone who listened during the presidential election may be inclined to think not. Both candidates decried the disappearance of good-paying manufacturing jobs. President-elect Donald Trump garnered votes with his promise to restore America’s manufacturing base to its former glory.

    “Under decades of failed leadership, the United States has gone from being the globe’s manufacturing powerhouse — the envy of the world — through a rapid de-industrialization,” Trump wrote in one op-ed. On the campaign trail, he promised to bring back American manufacturing jobs by making sure U.S. trading partners can’t take advantage of us — including slapping a tariff of 45 percent on China, if necessary.

    But keeping this promise will be difficult, as Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, recently argued. That’s because American workers may be struggling, but American factories are not.

    The relationship between factories and workers has changed over the past decades, and it’s unlikely to go back. Over the past 35 years, the United States shed about 7 million manufacturing jobs. And some industries, such as textiles and apparel, have disappeared almost entirely.

    Yet American factories actually make more stuff than they ever have, and at a lower cost. Manufacturing accounts for more than a third of U.S. economic output — making it the largest sector of the economy. From that perspective, it’s hard to argue that American manufacturing today is anything but a success.
    Its called Tourist Season. So why can't we shoot them?

  6. #36
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    To just add to the point, even if you get back all the factories and all the jobs, who's gonna work there? Those who had those jobs, are retired, found new jobs, or lay under the bridge. Those with skills wont work there, they want better paid jobs. If that's not the case, why do immigrants take the vacancies on the farms or canneries?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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  7. #37
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    That's my point. Many of those companies have moved from the West. In other words all if not most of their production is now located in China (and elsewhere). I understand why, because if they didn't they'd go bust as their product would be too expensive. But pray do tell WHO paved the way and opened the Door and let Chinese goods in. THE US! and everybody else followed blindly.....

    It would be gradual, Just as our trade with China has gradually increased.

    Factory production that actually moved? Well how about the Textile industry for starters, unless its specialized goods it's near enough always says 'Made in China' . But these days its more the fact that the Machinery is put there by Western based companies to produce things as cheaply as possible. To my knowledge Manufacturing machinery tends to come from Germany, Switzerland, US, Japan etc and with that machinery you can make near enough anything anywhere you choose. So in effect we (the west) have made a rod for our own backs. We're basically high on cheap goods. Meanwhile our local skills base has deteriorated significantly. You guys will probably call it Post industrialization, I call it stupidity!
    What makes you think Western investment in manufacturing for export to the US is all that large? Two-thirds of all foreign investment going into China since 1978 is from East Asia!

    ADD: Do you really think garments and shoes Americans bought in the 1990s were largely Made in America? No, they were not. The massive garment and shoe producers were spread across (mainly North-) East Asia. Relocating Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, Hong Kong and other factories into China cost America not one single job.
    Zero.
    Zip.
    Last edited by DOR; 22 Jan 17, at 14:54.

  8. #38
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    What makes you think Western investment in manufacturing for export to the US is all that large? Two-thirds of all foreign investment going into China since 1978 is from East Asia!
    Chinese produced Refrigeration or Catering equipment is a massive headache for say Italy.. I've either noticed a significant dropping of quality in the Italian equivalent or a significant increase in quality to give the customer a more expensive choice...Along with the Internet its caused a massive rethink and not for the better in many cases....

    ADD: Do you really think garments and shoes Americans bought in the 1990s were largely Made in America? No, they were not.
    Zero.
    Zip
    Well they certainly were in the UK. I grew up in the 70's and you very rarely saw Chinese anything.... All I remember is seeing was Made in Hong Kong or Japan. Tended to be electronics or house hold items. Japan produced some really good quality Items.
    Last edited by Toby; 22 Jan 17, at 23:07.

  9. #39
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    To just add to the point, even if you get back all the factories and all the jobs, who's gonna work there? Those who had those jobs, are retired, found new jobs, or lay under the bridge. Those with skills wont work there, they want better paid jobs. If that's not the case, why do immigrants take the vacancies on the farms or canneries?
    Good point!

  10. #40
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    There is also this. Something that has been said over an over. Its not China or Mexico taking our jobs. Its automation

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.80c90c8354ce
    I agree..Lack of foresight and investment too
    Last edited by Toby; 22 Jan 17, at 23:09.

  11. #41
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Toby,

    I've either noticed a significant dropping of quality in the Italian equivalent or a significant increase in quality to give the customer a more expensive choice
    So, what you’re saying is that the Italians can’t keep doing the same thing they’ve been doing for years – modest quality at high prices – because the barriers to entry have come down. So, now they have to either slash their prices to the point where it matches their quality, or improve their quality to the point where it matches their prices.

    Is that it?
    And, if so, . . . well, what’s the problem?


    I grew up in the 70's and you very rarely saw Chinese anything..
    Yeah, they had this thing going on, the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. And, the guy in charge, Chairman Mao, he wasn’t all that keen on business. Then, this other guy takes over, Deng Xiaoping, about 1977-78, and for the next 20 years it’s off to the races.

    No, you wouldn’t have seen China-made stuff in the UK in the 1970s. It would have been Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, Hong Kong or somewhere else that is currently made in China by the same company. Like Giant bicycles, an excellent Taiwan brand, is made in China.

  12. #42
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    It seemed that there was the idea that if all the manufacturing or blue collar jobs shifted from the west to the east, that those employed in those fields in the west would move up to more high value jobs by way of the west's superior education system.

    That didn't happen. Those jobs in the US made up a huge part of the wealth that maintained middleclass.

    Why wouldn't the US want to tear up the current system? A western democracy with its high standards of living/wage/etc is at a severe disadvantage when competing with China. Those standards are being eroded in the current system and for what? The west needs to look after itself. If china can't survive on a level playing field then so be it.

    I hope Trump puts a stop to the Chinese island building in the South China Sea. All it will take is a little resolve on the US and the Chinese will back down. They're only doing it because they can get away with it. Not a chance in hell the Chinese will go to war over the issue.

  13. #43
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    There is also this. Something that has been said over an over. Its not China or Mexico taking our jobs. Its automation

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.80c90c8354ce
    I read somewhere that the split as to where the lost jobs have gone was 20% overseas and 80% automation. Note after Trump said Carrier wasn't going to move 1200-1300 jobs to Mexico as he pressured them, a few days later Carrier said 300 jobs were going to be lost to further automation. I expect most future job losses to be due to automation and robotics. Soon white collar jobs will be falling by the wayside to robots such as doctors.

  14. #44
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Toby,



    So, what you’re saying is that the Italians can’t keep doing the same thing they’ve been doing for years – modest quality at high prices – because the barriers to entry have come down. So, now they have to either slash their prices to the point where it matches their quality, or improve their quality to the point where it matches their prices.

    Is that it?
    And, if so, . . . well, what’s the problem?
    If that isn't the most concise and on the money description of Italian manufacturing I don't know what is. Chrysler is doomed.

  15. #45
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    If that isn't the most concise and on the money description of Italian manufacturing I don't know what is. Chrysler is doomed.
    Nov 1, 2016 - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles reported 176609 U.S. sales in October 2016, a 10 percent year-over-year decrease. See more FCA sales numbers...
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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