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Thread: EU break-up no longer unthinkable

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    Interesting... Is this connected to Grillos announcement that they will have a referendum on whether to leave the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Party?
    That's a more complicated issue. M5S is pretty much split down the middle between a mainstream center-right wing and a protest, eurosceptic wing.

    Grillo's intention is probably to consolidate actual party lines this way, which he'll then use to isolate (eurosceptic) "rebels", stripping them from position. Grillo has used similar situations within the party in the past couple years a few times on other major issues, generally coming out on top to force the party into his direction. The reason he's doing this now is because he can then move into the next election round with a "consolidated" party that he can present as having gotten rid of problematic elements again and having gained a unified political stance beyond just being a protest movement.

    Outside the party, M5S' EFFD membership is not considered anything noteworthy in Italy (EP politics are pretty unnoticed there anyway), so it's pretty much just an internal party issue; the EFFD membership means squat to Grillo too since it's a sinking boat, so he can gamble that without problems. Since ALDE won't take them in the party's MEPs will then go it alone as an unaffiliated group in the EP, which is what many eurosceptic members want in the first place - just with the effect of giving them a chance to join the main party lines by compromising on other issues.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    My point was that the article said 'post brexit'. Sorry but that's futurology.
    But you clearly don't see that Brexit is all about the future!

    As for the FT, you understand the F100 is companies with dollar-denominated assets and the relationship with a depreciated pound right?
    Wayhay party time. I'm up 15 grand up in 12 month and lets face it, it'll get better under an Anglophile President .

    I would never dismiss any valid opinion. Anybody with their head screwed on knows this will be bumpy initially. But long term we are doing our Children proud. I'm a long term player, I'm Northern we're built that way! Solid foundations with a social conscious. In that way we build from the ground up. Clearly the next big thing that needs to happen is people actually enjoy going to work again. Which clearly won't happen with Masses of EU regulation wrapped around our necks weighing us down. So we need to dismantle that as well. An "Anti regulation revolution" thats whats needed. People will begin to breath again and start up business's from nothing left right and centre.. :-)
    Last edited by Toby; 09 Jan 17, at 23:18.

  3. #33
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    You seen the value of sterling and the FTSE 100 last night?

    Every time May opens her her mouth the pound falls and the FTSE 100 climbs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markobee View Post
    It bewilders me how often this point needs reiterating to people.. honestly!
    people like you said the sky would fall if people voted for brexit.

  5. #35
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    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...aged-migration


    Labour
    Corbyn on Brexit: UK can be better off out of the EU
    priceless, especially the comments. Its a special kind of joy seeing leftists at each other throats, calling other "traitors" and try to prove they are the most left.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    A kinda sensationalist headline.
    How can they say the UK is the worlds top performer post Brexit when Article 50 hasn't been even served, let alone separation?

    The Brexit vote honeymoon is drawing to a close. The consequences, good or ill will begin this year.

    More important for Europe is the Dutch and French elections in the coming months
    wait a sec

    they did not use the word "post brexit". You made it up!

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    The problem is that it's only been six months since the vote, and Brexit isn't even in sight yet. Meaning any variations in business - including the fall of the pound, the main stimulus for current British performance - are merely speculation in that regard.

    Realistically, have a good look at the economy in around one year - once the election scares in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands including the 100-day initial programs are over, the UK has declared exit and hopefully a timetable towards what they think they'll be doing afterwards, and the EU parliament will have a new president for the negotiation timeframe. That's about the point where one can make a somewhat more certain prediction.


    Eh, it's not like there'll be any surprises in that. In France Le Pen will reach second round and will then be completely destroyed by Fillon who'll tank to around 65-70% of the ballot against her. In the Netherlands Wilders will rise, but there'll be a all-party coalition preventing him.
    The more interesting election to come right now is Italy, as M5S is on the verge of self-destructing now that they've been given enough rope to hang themselves with.


    You mean before Thatcher began undermining the EU to that effect? Because there's only one country in the EU - of sufficient status to actually matter - that hasn't been "paying their way".
    except the article is NOT about "post brexit", zara made that up!

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by drhuy View Post
    except the article is NOT about "post brexit", zara made that up!
    I was referring to this quote:

    Basically, the British economy is the worlds top performer amongst advanced economies post Brexit.


    The headline in the independant was:
    The economic consensus was horribly wrong and here are the real reasons Brexit is succeeding

    Brexit doesnt happen until 2 years after article 50. How can it be succeeding or failing before it's even begun?
    Last edited by zara; 10 Jan 17, at 10:38.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by drhuy View Post
    people like you said the sky would fall if people voted for brexit.
    People like you said we'd have an extra 350 million a week after a vote for brexit. Where is it?
    People like you said we would have free trade deals with half the world after a vote for brexit. Where are they?

    Could it maybe.. just maybe be that we are still in the EU? Or am I being thick?

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markobee View Post
    People like you said we'd have an extra 350 million a week after a vote for brexit. Where is it?
    People like you said we would have free trade deals with half the world after a vote for brexit. Where are they?

    Could it maybe.. just maybe be that we are still in the EU? Or am I being thick?
    Interesting how the fall of LSE was due to the Brexit vote, but this performance is due to still be in EU.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Interesting how the fall of LSE was due to the Brexit vote, but this performance is due to still be in EU.
    I don't think anyones suggesting that it is down to being in the EU. There's a lot of factors at play, obviously the depreciation of sterling is a large one but other than that the referendum results are mainly pyscological so far and difficult to measure. I have read in several places that the Balenthiran Cycle (https://www.harriman-house.com/press/full/2566) might be at play.

    I wonder if we will see further depreciation of sterling as Article 50 approaches. Surely everyone knows it's coming so you expect that to already be factored in to its current value. But there are undoubtedly sectors of the market that think it may not happen on schedule (or at all). Some smart investors are going make a killing.

    We are in the process of selling our house and moving to the eurozone so need Sterling to stay up! I'm on the sharp end of this!
    Last edited by zara; 10 Jan 17, at 14:24.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    I was referring to this quote:

    Basically, the British economy is the worlds top performer amongst advanced economies post Brexit.


    The headline in the independant was:
    The economic consensus was horribly wrong and here are the real reasons Brexit is succeeding

    Brexit doesnt happen until 2 years after article 50. How can it be succeeding or failing before it's even begun?
    that quote does NOT come from the article. Again the article does NOT use "post brexit".

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markobee View Post
    People like you said we'd have an extra 350 million a week after a vote for brexit. Where is it?
    People like you said we would have free trade deals with half the world after a vote for brexit. Where are they?

    Could it maybe.. just maybe be that we are still in the EU? Or am I being thick?
    again, did the sky fall?

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by drhuy View Post
    again, did the sky fall?
    Do you not see the absurdity of your question?

    It's like me saying to you 'People like you said the rivers would run with milk and honey if we voted to leave'
    (having deduced everything I need to know about you from a handful of posts)

    'Where are these rivers? Where's the milk and honey eh? eh?'

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    I don't think anyones suggesting that it is down to being in the EU. There's a lot of factors at play, obviously the depreciation of sterling is a large one but other than that the referendum results are mainly pyscological so far and difficult to measure. I have read in several places that the Balenthiran Cycle (https://www.harriman-house.com/press/full/2566) might be at play.

    I wonder if we will see further depreciation of sterling as Article 50 approaches. Surely everyone knows it's coming so you expect that to already be factored in to its current value. But there are undoubtedly sectors of the market that think it may not happen on schedule (or at all). Some smart investors are going make a killing.

    We are in the process of selling our house and moving to the eurozone so need Sterling to stay up! I'm on the sharp end of this!
    You know what will happen and you do the worst move. You will lose twice, once when you sell for lower price, second when the pound will fall again.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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