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Thread: EU break-up no longer unthinkable

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    It may long term be better for those of us who would welcome European unity to rip up the EU and start again. The EU in it's current form reminds me of what Talleyrand said of the restored Bourbons; "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing". The Brexit vote doesn't seem to have caused any 'wake up call' on the need for reform which it so clearly should have done. Those institutions which cannot adapt to the needs and aspirations of those people they claim to serve are doomed.
    I'm glad you are coming around. The EU in its current form is an arrogant, undemocratic, increasingly authoritarian, bureaucrat run socialist boondoggle. In the long run an unreformed EU is weakening Europe against Russian aggression rather than strengthening it.,

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    A kinda sensationalist headline.
    How can they say the UK is the worlds top performer post Brexit when Article 50 hasn't been even served, let alone separation?

    The Brexit vote honeymoon is drawing to a close. The consequences, good or ill will begin this year.

    More important for Europe is the Dutch and French elections in the coming months
    I thought you Subscribed to the FT........Look up the FT100 and feel the joy rush through your veins.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Pari, if you post the title, we can Google it and then use the Google link to access it. Many pay-walled sites will allow you to access via Google so that people following Google links can be "introduced" to their content.

    Edit: I found it:

    British economy world’s strongest after Brexit

    Britain ended last year as the strongest of the world’s advanced economies with growth accelerating in the six months after the Brexit vote, it was revealed overnight.

    Business activity hit a 17-month high last month, meaning that the economy grew by 2.2 per cent last year — more than the six other leading nations, including the US, Germany and Japan.

    Far from slowing after the referendum in June, as predicted by the Treasury and Bank of England, growth appeared to have improved. GDP grew at 0.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent in the first two quarters of last year, compared with 0.6 per cent and an estimated 0.5 per cent in the final period.

    Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, suggested that economic forecasters were facing a “Michael Fish moment” over their mistaken predictions, referring to the BBC weather forecaster. Mr Haldane, comparing the profession’s failure to spot the 2008 recession to Mr Fish’s infamous assurance of “no hurricane” on the eve of the great storm of 1987, said: “It’s a fair cop to say that the profession is to some degree in crisis.”

    He also admitted to shortcomings in pre-Brexit predictions, saying that “the data has surprised to the upside”.

    He insisted that the Bank’s errors were “more a question of timing than of a fundamental reassessment of the fortunes of the economy” and warned that inflation would squeeze household incomes this year. He said that a slowdown was still likely. The Bank is forecasting growth in 2017 of 1.4 per cent, which would put the UK in the middle of the G7.

    Steve Baker, the Brexit-supporting MP, said that the performance of the economy since the referendum was a reproach to those who warned of dire consequences. “This is another moment to reflect that the horror stories that we were told simply didn’t come to pass,” he said.

    An assessment by Cambridge University criticised “flawed and partisan” Treasury forecasts of Britain’s economy outside the EU. Only one, the fall in sterling, had proved correct, according to the Centre for Business Research. Treasury predictions on the prospects of trade outside the EU came in for particular criticism in the academic assessment published last month.

    “We have looked very carefully at what the Treasury has said about this and we find its work very flawed and very partisan. It is not objective,” Graham Gudgin, one of the authors of the report, said.

    Britain’s robust performance means the economy heads into 2017 on solid ground. James Knightley, UK economist at ING Financial Markets, said that it “indicates that the UK economy has strong momentum”.

    The purchasing managers’ index survey of business activity across the services, construction and manufacturing industries also pointed to further hiring by companies. It was released before official GDP data for 2016 as a whole on January 26.

    Recruitment across all three industries accelerated at the fastest pace in 11 months and, in a positive sign for the months ahead, new orders in the services sector, which accounts for four fifths of the economy, hit a 17-month high.

    Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, which produces the survey, said: “The UK economy ended 2016 on a high. Hiring has also revived alongside upturns in new orders and business confidence.” Using historical comparisons of PMI surveys and official GDP numbers, he said that the survey pointed to growth in the final quarter of 0.5 per cent.

    December’s PMI reading for services, which was jointly produced with the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, rose from 55.3 to 56.2, with any figure over 50 indicating growth. It beat forecasts of 54.7 and was the strongest since July 2015.

    It took the composite index of all private sector activity, including manufacturing and construction, to 56.7, a 17-month high.

    Mr Williamson warned that the strong growth rate and signs of rising inflation could force the Bank to raise its official rate from the record low of 0.25 per cent. “All of which adds weight to the argument that the next move by the Bank of England is as likely to be a rate hike as a cut,” he said.

    Economists also warned that economic conditions this year were expected to deteriorate. Higher inflation will eat into pay packets, potentially depressing consumer spending, and the triggering of article 50 in March may provoke business into cutting investment plans because of the uncertainty.

    “A moderation in growth in 2017 seems likely,” Scott Bowman, UK economist at Capital Economics, said. “Our forecast is for GDP growth to ease from around 2 per cent in 2016 to about 1.5 per cent in 2017.”

    The Times

  4. #19
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Here you are Zara

    FTSE 100 Index
    INDEXFTSE: UKX - Jan 6, 4:35 PM GMT
    7,210.05Price increase14.74 (0.20%)

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    I thought you Subscribed to the FT........Look up the FT100 and feel the joy rush through your veins.
    My point was that the article said 'post brexit'. Sorry but that's futurology.

    As for the FT, you understand the F100 is companies with dollar-denominated assets and the relationship with a depreciated pound right?

    KPMG decribe it in detail

    https://home.kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2016/12/uk-stocks-real-performance-since-brexit-vote.htmlv
    Last edited by zara; 09 Jan 17, at 10:32.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I'm glad you are coming around. The EU in its current form is an arrogant, undemocratic, increasingly authoritarian, bureaucrat run socialist boondoggle. In the long run an unreformed EU is weakening Europe against Russian aggression rather than strengthening it.,
    I would not describe my view as "coming around" as I have probably been more critical of the EU financial mess ups than anyone here. It saddens me because I do genuinely believe European free trade and cooperation is vital to stability in our homelands - if an effective and representative system could be created I would back it. What annoys me so much that is that todays eurocrats are so pigedly single minded in their approach; all the time it has to be THIS way. "No it doesn't" I want to say "there are many ways to skin a cat"; they have made countless un-needed mistakes that have antagonized the cat instead by insisting on getting 'their way' while breaking their own rules all the time. As an organisation it must rate among the lowest in history for competence and decisiveness and for that the structure is mostly to blame.

  7. #22
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    A kinda sensationalist headline.
    How can they say the UK is the worlds top performer post Brexit when Article 50 hasn't been even served, let alone separation?
    The article covers that but to precis for you, if the UK economy were still being treated as BAU (business as usual) they would be reporting the same recessionist figures that the EU is. Forward planning by companies knowing that brexit is happening is what has caused the boom.

    That and the dropping of the Pound. Also caused by brexit.
    Last edited by Parihaka; 09 Jan 17, at 00:18.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility

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  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Pari, if you post the title, we can Google it and then use the Google link to access it. Many pay-walled sites will allow you to access via Google so that people following Google links can be "introduced" to their content.

    Edit: I found it:
    Good point, will do in future

    This pretty much sums up the state of the civil service led bremain campaign.

    An assessment by Cambridge University criticised “flawed and partisan” Treasury forecasts of Britain’s economy outside the EU. Only one, the fall in sterling, had proved correct, according to the Centre for Business Research. Treasury predictions on the prospects of trade outside the EU came in for particular criticism in the academic assessment published last month.

    “We have looked very carefully at what the Treasury has said about this and we find its work very flawed and very partisan. It is not objective,” Graham Gudgin, one of the authors of the report, said.
    Last edited by Parihaka; 09 Jan 17, at 00:16.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility

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  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Basically, the British economy is the worlds top performer amongst advanced economies post Brexit.
    The problem is that it's only been six months since the vote, and Brexit isn't even in sight yet. Meaning any variations in business - including the fall of the pound, the main stimulus for current British performance - are merely speculation in that regard.

    Realistically, have a good look at the economy in around one year - once the election scares in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands including the 100-day initial programs are over, the UK has declared exit and hopefully a timetable towards what they think they'll be doing afterwards, and the EU parliament will have a new president for the negotiation timeframe. That's about the point where one can make a somewhat more certain prediction.

    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    More important for Europe is the Dutch and French elections in the coming months
    Eh, it's not like there'll be any surprises in that. In France Le Pen will reach second round and will then be completely destroyed by Fillon who'll tank to around 65-70% of the ballot against her. In the Netherlands Wilders will rise, but there'll be a all-party coalition preventing him.
    The more interesting election to come right now is Italy, as M5S is on the verge of self-destructing now that they've been given enough rope to hang themselves with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    What about 1980,.... with countries that actually pay their way
    You mean before Thatcher began undermining the EU to that effect? Because there's only one country in the EU - of sufficient status to actually matter - that hasn't been "paying their way".

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    The article covers that but to precis for you, if the UK economy were still being treated as BAU (business as usual) they would be reporting the same recessionist figures that the EU is. Forward planning by companies knowing that brexit is happening is what has caused the boom.

    That and the dropping of the Pound. Also caused by brexit.
    Boom?
    We have wage stagnation. Growth at around 0.6% a quater. Productivity growth at about 0.3% output per hour.
    No significant sales increases to speak of. Doesn't sound like a boom to me.

    I suppose inflation always accompanies a boom - we do have that!
    Last edited by zara; 09 Jan 17, at 10:35.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Eh, it's not like there'll be any surprises in that. In France Le Pen will reach second round and will then be completely destroyed by Fillon who'll tank to around 65-70% of the ballot against her. In the Netherlands Wilders will rise, but there'll be a all-party coalition preventing him.
    The more interesting election to come right now is Italy, as M5S is on the verge of self-destructing now that they've been given enough rope to hang themselves with.
    I hope to god your right, but after Brexit and Trump can we really be so complacent?

    The Italian election shouldn't be till be 2018 right? Whats going on with M5S? Are they in trouble?

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    You mean before Thatcher began undermining the EU to that effect? Because there's only one country in the EU - of sufficient status to actually matter - that hasn't been "paying their way".
    You always manage to emit an air of entitlement, lets call it what it is "Socialism". Or could it be like a Mafia henchman upset with a business in the neighborhood for not paying their protection money in full. I seem to remember the rebate happening shortly after Greece , Spain and Portugal were mysteriously allowed entry into the EU after not complying to ANY of the criteria for Membership.....Hayho, I guess you reap what you sow!

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    The problem is that it's only been six months since the vote, and Brexit isn't even in sight yet.
    It bewilders me how often this point needs reiterating to people.. honestly!

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    The Italian election shouldn't be till be 2018 right? Whats going on with M5S? Are they in trouble?
    It's highly likely the government will collapse in the next couple months, leading to early elections. M5S is calling for them too since Renzi's withdrawal. Gentiloni has to make far too many backroom deals with different party wings and other parliamentary groups right now for the government to become stable.

    M5S has intense problems with corruption for the people they lifted into positions of power. Since in Italy this is a problem that is more societal, they have an ethics code to deal with that - once investigations are opened against a M5S politician he should step down from his position. Grillo however announced a change to their ethics code - on Twitter no less - changing that thing in particular (instead they'd only have to inform the party that they're under investigation).

    People both within M5S and outside (PD in particular tries to exhort it) largely see this as protegism towards a single politician who'd technically have to step down now, Rome's mayor Virginia Raggi. This thing has been going on in various stages for the last three months, mostly under wraps until the referendum in November was through: Grillo's announcement of the ethics code change came in November (followed by a claim that 91% of M5S members support it - only 30% of members participated in the vote though); the party leadership then stripped Raggi of powers within the party in December, after the referendum; Grillo subsequently announced they'd keep Raggi in position. All while she is frantically trying to recover trust among the population - and as a legal strategy - by e.g. having decisions investigated of those other city government officials who were arrested or stepped down.

    Adding to that is that in those places where M5S came into power with promises of transparent, down-to-earth, problem-solving politics ("being different than those politicians") last year they have utterly failed at their job - in fact they've at best shown that they're even more corrupt and self-serving. And since Italy is still a very religious country, the recent break between Raggi and the Holy See - Raggi not being invited to the end celebrations for the Holy Year of Mercy, unlike 400 other politicians - and the Vatican's open criticism of Raggi - after having supported her in elections in June - will be noticed by people.

    Raggi's performance in Rome is largely seen as a lithmus test whether M5S is capable of real politics. And it doesn't look particularly good right now.
    Last edited by kato; 09 Jan 17, at 11:14.

  15. #30
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    Interesting... Is this connected to Grillos announcement that they will have a referendum on whether to leave the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Party?

    Hopefully, this year will see a backlash against the new politics in the west as people begin to realise how vacuous is really is.
    Last edited by zara; 09 Jan 17, at 11:56.

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