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Thread: 2017 American Political Scene

  1. #1276
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    ACA isn't conservative except in the broader spectrum of guaranteed health insurance programs. It'd garner Conservative votes if you were moving from the NHS to ACA, but obviously isn't going to get any votes if you're moving from 2008 status quo to ACA.

    The goal is to provide only guaranteed catastrophic coverage to serve as wealth insurance, with deductibles that can be funded in a fashion that hits the actual patients rather than the government wallet, and some work-around for high-risk patients that would otherwise be rejected. The high-risk patients should be put into a federal high-risk pool, or otherwise insurers can have a fiscal back-stop that scales in accordance with how sick their insurance pool is.

    Then the rest of the health care sector can move on.

    ACA does not accomplish that, it's a vehicle for increasing mandates and obfuscated costs.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  2. #1277
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Just forgot to mention it? Didn't see it as important or relevant? They tried to interfere in your election and when asked about what you might do if it were proven that the Trump campaign was in collusion he volunteered a lie about not having had any contact himself rather than answer the actual question. This guy knowingly lied, as sadly have so many of the Trump 'team' or if he is truly that confused needs to retire himself. Any court would convict a normal person for unbelievable testimony under oath. This does not end well for Trump.

    As regards the monitoring of Trump or some server in his home Clapper says it did not happen - and honestly that would be the best news Trump could get because if some service DID get a court to allow them to do this there must have been reasonable cause.
    Snapper, thats not how it works. Sessions is a lawyer, he took his own advice. When ever giving information in a formal interview, interrogation, hearing or other on record setting, only answer specific questions with specific answers. Franken asked him a very specific question, Sessions gave a specific answer. Goask your local attorney if they next time you are under oath you should just give wide open free ranging answers.

    As regards Trump tower, in the Obama DoJ, a warrant would not necessarily mean probable cause. FISA courts routinely rubber stamp government requests and they operate under what amounts to a reasonable suspicion not probable cause standard since their goal is surveillance and not criminal prosecution. In fact it is routine for the FBI to use gleaned intell not to prosecute, but to open the door for traditional gum shoeing in order to then wash the intelligence gathering out of the eventual prosecution in order to protect sources. In fact this was in the news jsut the other day in Tacoma Washington when the state supreme court ruled that Tacoma PD did not comply with state records laws. They had concealed the use of a cell tower stinger per an agreement with the FBI and did not disclose it to the defense.

  3. #1278
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Asty, JAD, anyone else willing to give an insight,

    How is DOS doing these days? Over here, we are very confused.

    We receive messages from carrier diplomats, but we also read that all they do is drinking coffee.
    Sorry, Dok, can't help you.

    You may have noticed that State held its first press briefing under Trump yesterday, and apparently it was well received. Also, note that Tillerson is off on a 3-country visit to Japan, S. Korea, and China.

    Wait a little longer and see how things shape up. Having been through 2 transitions myself, I can tell you there is always a period of uncertainty among the career people. Going from Obama to Trump and Kerry to Tillerson will take some adjustment.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  4. #1279
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    ...if the goal of the GOP was to create a new conservative healthcare system, that is curious because they took the old structure of the ACA.
    You may find it curious, but I don't. After 7 years, the ACA has become entrenched in our public health system. Immediate repeal, or even phased-in repeal, will unleash a enormous backlash by those who have come to depend on it. I don't think any party could withstand the fallout. That leaves the repeal and replace conservatives in a bind. The individual mandate, which is hated by most people, has no effective replacement, nor does the ACA itself. Without across-the-board participation by everyone who is eligible, the ACA becomes an actuarial nightmare. A majority of the people left in the pool will be the sickest ones. So, the GOP has to take the old structure and do what it can to replace the individual mandate, while still offering coverage to everyone eligible. Their proposed approach so far, as we have seen, is to cap costs to the Federal government using set tax credits to defray the cost of premiums. The GOP is thus substituting fiscal predictability for a widening money pit. This might just fly with voters, whereas repeal alone could hurt the GOP in the midterms next year.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  5. #1280
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Dazed,

    DOR simple yes or no is California bluer than Massachusetts in elective representation in non presidential elections?
    Yes.
    We don’t have a GOPer Governor, for starters.

    . . . . .

    How do REDMAP, ALEC and CrossCheck work in Massachusetts and California?
    They don’t.

    Why? Because you have to have a GOPer-dominated government before you can steal people’s votes. CrossCheck has to be asked for; it isn’t free and it certainly isn’t popular in blue states.

    It’s all there in the links at the start of this thread: http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=66755

  6. #1281
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Dazed,

    Yes.
    We don’t have a GOPer Governor, for starters.
    So looking at the empirical evidence below you determined that California is bluer than Massachusetts
    .
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    California state senate 27 Democrats 13 Republicans Massachusetts state senate 34 Democrats 6 Republicans In the California State Assembly 55 Democrats 25 Republicans Massachusetts House of Representatives 126 Democrats 34 Republicans. California US House Representatives 29 Democrats 14 Republican Massachusetts US House Representatives 9 Democrats 0 Republicans. In Massachusetts Democrat voters out number Republicans nearly 3 to 1 in Califronia it's 1.5 Dems to 1 Republican. The Cook Partisan Voting Index has Massachusetts bluer than California.
    DOR I am a dumb ass who can barely write not wicked smart like yourself. Seeing as you explained it so well. It wasn't the articles or other Republican maleficence, It was an unpopular US Republican House and Senate with a Democratic Presidents, but your reasoning/logic says it was a blue US House and Senate because of a Democrat President and Vice President. So the government in Washington DC was seen as a Blue Federal Government and that is why the Democrats didn't gain the US House or Senate and Executive branch. They punished and replaced the Blue Federal Government with a Red one. I would never have thought of that. Funny but I bet the HRC campaign strategy was to win the electoral college first and the popular vote second.

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    [How do REDMAP, ALEC and CrossCheck work in Massachusetts and California?
    They don’t.

    Why? Because you have to have a GOPer-dominated government before you can steal people’s votes. CrossCheck has to be asked for; it isn’t free and it certainly isn’t popular in blue states.
    The California State Democratic Party in 2009-2010 controlled the house and senate. The Democratic House and Senate legislatively referred to voters by the State Legislature Proposition 14. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califo...tion_14_(2010)

    "a California ballot proposition that appeared on the ballot during the June 2010 state elections. It was a constitutional amendment that effectively transformed California's non-Presidential elections from first-past-the-post to a nonpartisan blanket primary (similar to a two-round system). The proposition was legislatively referred to voters by the State Legislature and approved by 54% of the voters."

    "It consolidated all primary elections for a particular office into an election with one ballot that would be identical to all voters, regardless of their party preferences. The two candidates with the most votes in the primary election would then be the only candidates who would run in the general election, regardless of their party affiliation."

    A court challenge and a controversial ruling ensued. The constitutionality of the measure was challenged in Field et al. v. Bowen, et al. Not that it matters the Democratic Judge Curtis Karnow was appointed by Arnold S.

    "The plaintiffs represented a broad spectrum of the body politic in California:

    Mona Field, a professor of political science at Glendale Community College and elected member of the board of trustees of the Los Angeles Community College District,[6]
    Richard Winger, a Libertarian who publishes Ballot Access News,
    Stephan A. Chessin, a Democrat who is chair of Californians for Electoral Reform,[7]
    Jennifer Wozniak, an organizing and field service coordinator for the Laborers' International Union of North America, Local 777,[8][9]
    Jeff Mackler, a 2006 write-in senatorial candidate for Socialist Action (U.S.), and
    Rodney Martin.

    Looks like this isn’t popular in blue state like California. Democrats voters dominates the voter roles in California though in a lower percentage than they do in Massachusetts. But because of Prop 14 That is why Greens and Republicans and any other party can have a primary but your choice of US Senator and soon other state wide and national races is Democrat and Democrat.

    So if the majority legislature party controls the legislature and passes legislation that will empower that party through it's 51% base at the expense of the other party. This is OK if not a GOPer-dominated government, but undemocratic if GOP? One Party running for office is not a threat to democracy?


    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    It’s all there in the links at the start of this thread: http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=66755American Democracy in Trouble. The Election was Stolen – Here’s How…
    It appears only if Republicans win danger, but if only one political party and only one party only is allow to compete in a general election, that is OK? Look if I could only vote for Republicans and no other party on the general election ballot, I would agree democracy is under threat. 1 Billion People getting only one party on the ballot may work in China, but not the US.

    I read the Rolling Stone article on CrossCheck, I also read their Rape on Campus article, and checked out the rest as you know from a prior post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dazed View Post
    DOR I read them. REDMAP by my favorite science writer Elizabeth Kolbert. Her stuff on extinctions, global warming and ocean acidification excellent but her take on REDMAP not so much. I aspire to the view of Real Clear Politics on this matter. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...s__124626.html

    I don't believe there is that much voter fraud. What I do find odd is we want universal health care and to save on cost and you know provide better health care and not give penicillin to people who are allergic to it. Sameo for social welfare. Shouldn't there an ID be on file somewhere, you need that SS# = taxpayer ID # so a national ID is not out of the question.

    Every election is unique other than, the winning party always thinks it has a mandate though more people did not vote for the winner than did. (Hillary Clinton 66 million Trump 63 Million US pop 319 Million) and the losing party blames the voter. It's not conspiracy Democrats either adjust or lose elections sameo for Republicans and others.
    Last edited by Dazed; 10 Mar 17, at 02:43.

  7. #1282
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    http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...g-trafficking/

    Trump just lost my support for 2020. While I agree with the vast majority of his policies, the continuance of "The War on drugs" is going to cost him my vote in the next election.

    My one concern about voting for Trump was that he would continue the asinine war on drugs, which was reinforced when appointed Sessions. Einstein's theory of insanity at work...

    I wish Flynn would have stayed, but I'd love to see Sessions go. As a Trump supporter, I would actually hoping Sessions would resign, or get fired when the brouhaha with his testimony got started.

    Shame on you Donald!
    The purpose of all war is ultimately peace. - Saint Augustine
    For it tis' the doom of men that they forget. - Merlin the Magician
    The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing. - Albert Einstein

  8. #1283
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    OK, you (Dazed) don't believe there is that much voter fraud.
    I agree.

    It's the unAmerican voter SUPPRESSION that riles me.

  9. #1284
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Sessions is a lawyer, he took his own advice. When ever giving information in a formal interview, interrogation, hearing or other on record setting, only answer specific questions with specific answers. Franken asked him a very specific question, Sessions gave a specific answer.
    Then I suggest he seek better advice than his own. Listen to the question; "if x what would you do?" He didn't answer that "specific" question but volunteered false information about himself. Sessions perjured himself and his role as Attorney General now depends on Muscovite good will; one statement from them that he did discuss sanctions with them and he is gone. How does that leave the state of the inquiries?

    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    As regards Trump tower, in the Obama DoJ, a warrant would not necessarily mean probable cause. FISA courts routinely rubber stamp government requests and they operate under what amounts to a reasonable suspicion not probable cause standard since their goal is surveillance and not criminal prosecution. In fact it is routine for the FBI to use gleaned intell not to prosecute, but to open the door for traditional gum shoeing in order to then wash the intelligence gathering out of the eventual prosecution in order to protect sources. In fact this was in the news jsut the other day in Tacoma Washington when the state supreme court ruled that Tacoma PD did not comply with state records laws. They had concealed the use of a cell tower stinger per an agreement with the FBI and did not disclose it to the defense.
    Obviously I do not know how the Court works and I know nothing of Tacoma but surely if Trumps allegations regarding Obama 'wire tapping' him (which I understand is impossible unless he is alleging a private operation) were correct your Department of Justice would have confirmed this by now? They MUST know. On the other hand monitoring foreign agents, be they Ambassadors or 3rd 'Cultural Attache's', as I understand it is permissible with "reasonable suspicion" or probable cause whatever but with grounds provided sufficient to make prima facie case for doing so. How it is used in the longer term is of course I imagine a matter of what is gleaned and how the case builds as well as advantage gained and lost in exposure or other possible choices.

    The evidence now is overwhelming and anyone who cannot see it is willfully closing their eyes.

  10. #1285
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    The hot issue today is replacing Obamacare or the ACA, and a bill to do so will come up in the House for a vote within a week or so. As expected Democrats and their allies in the private sector are fighting tooth and nail to kill it while Republicans are divided over it, with the most conservative calling for repeal ONLY and no replacement and a few openly expressing doubts that the replacement will do what its proponents say it will.

    The issue is enormously difficult to understand, and has been since day one. Probably very few average citizens have ever understood it and, naturally enough, don't understand why conservatives want to replace it. One of the leading proponents of replacing Obamacare is Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, a prodigious numbers wonk, who has been studying the issue for years, took a stab at it a day or so ago with a Power Point presentation.

    Whether you agree with him or not, it's at least informative to understand where Republicans stand on the issue. If nothing else, he shows us how a presentation should be structured.

    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  11. #1286
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Whether you agree with him or not, it's at least informative to understand where Republicans stand on the issue. If nothing else, he shows us how a presentation should be structured.

    As someone whose (un)fortunate lot in life is to give lots of presentations (in person and remote), it shows some glaring issues in his presentation style. He is using a screen in a hall with lots of people, instead of a projector. He uses bullet points with very different font sizes and colors that do not contrast very well (slightly dark blue on light blue? Really?).

    He also introduces this doozy of a concept at 12:35 - "the whole idea of Obamacare is that ... people who are healthy, pay for people who are sick".

    DUDE, THAT IS HOW ALL INSURANCE WORKS.

    I have nothing against Speaker Ryan (except the fact that my wife took an unnecessary amount of interest in him while she was studying for her citizenship test), but if he things this will pass fast, he must be smoking something from Washington State
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  12. #1287
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    He is using a screen in a hall with lots of people, instead of a projector.
    He's using a specific technique. The speech and the way he uses the presentation is structured for using a whiteboard actually, intended for a much smaller group. Pin a bullet point that only serves to give the topic for the current 2-minute section; draw some simple graphs to support what you mostly transfer by gestures. Shift the audience focus attention on the speaker, not the presentation. It's somewhat doable with a screen presentation both in simple adaption and in a mixed mode (which is what he's trying), but the problem is that he's trying to use an actual presentation with way too many bullet points per slide. And that he takes far too long overall.

  13. #1288
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    "the whole idea of Obamacare is that ... people who are healthy, pay for people who are sick".

    DUDE, THAT IS HOW ALL INSURANCE WORKS.

    It's oversimplified and a wrong assumption. This is not how insurance should work.

    Insurance companies buy the risk FOR you. There is no risk if they accept you into the pool and you are already sick. I want to insure my burning house.
    Last edited by Doktor; 11 Mar 17, at 16:56.
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  14. #1289
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    It's oversimplified and a wrong assumption. This is not how insurance should work.

    Insurance companies buy the risk FOR you. There is no risk if they accept you into the pool and you are already sick. I want to insure my burning house.
    Right. To replace the individual mandate you essentially have to make sick people who only join after they become sick pay a significant financial penalty to compensate for not being a part of the insurance pool.

    I'm fine with that.

  15. #1290
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    JAD,

    You may find it curious, but I don't. After 7 years, the ACA has become entrenched in our public health system. Immediate repeal, or even phased-in repeal, will unleash a enormous backlash by those who have come to depend on it. I don't think any party could withstand the fallout. That leaves the repeal and replace conservatives in a bind. The individual mandate, which is hated by most people, has no effective replacement, nor does the ACA itself. Without across-the-board participation by everyone who is eligible, the ACA becomes an actuarial nightmare. A majority of the people left in the pool will be the sickest ones. So, the GOP has to take the old structure and do what it can to replace the individual mandate, while still offering coverage to everyone eligible. Their proposed approach so far, as we have seen, is to cap costs to the Federal government using set tax credits to defray the cost of premiums. The GOP is thus substituting fiscal predictability for a widening money pit. This might just fly with voters, whereas repeal alone could hurt the GOP in the midterms next year.
    the crux of the issue is that the Republicans have campaigned to the broader public (vice their own) that the ACA is an utter disaster on the verge of collapse, with insufficient benefits (premiums too high, high deductibles, etc) as exhibit A of why it needs root and branch repeal.

    so now their fresh new plan is simply half of the...utter disaster. without the cost controls.

    this half-a-bushel approach has flaws so obvious that just about every observer whom can count knows that implementation will rapidly doom the entire system to collapse, let alone provide better benefits.

    thus, the overall effect will essentially still be a massively expensive, phased-in repeal with no replacement.

    on a similar note, it's pretty funny to see Republicans pre-emptively attacking the CBO as a biased source. what do they imagine will happen when they actually implement this?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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