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2017 American Political Scene

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  • Predictions are pretty hard, especially about the future. ;)

    Parties can change pretty rapidly, so I can't say what 100% certain how voters are going to vote in 2024 or beyond. I'm just pretty sure that the partisan bent is going to continue for a while, because it's been a growing trend for decades.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
      yup, doubt Sanders would have done better, despite all the talk about all the hidden enthusiastic liberals that just couldn't pull for Clinton.
      Sanders would have been murdered. A grumpy old Socialist with more baggage than a Napoleonic army. Apparently the 'dirt file' was 2ft thick. Literally. There were also some very damaging video clips. If Bernie is the answer the question is wrong.

      The problem was Clinton running in the first place. She scared out all the other decent candidates & made the Primaries a race between two deeply flawed alternatives.


      on the other hand, the existing, default demographics usually point to narrow-but-growing Democratic wins, at least at the Presidential level. Trump essentially won by scrambling the system with his "outsider" status-- by polarizing the right people at the right time. his narrow win actually represents a blow-out in GOP terms, because they were working at a disadvantage to begin with.

      this may be my partisan bias talking, but i honestly think this is sort of an all-or-nothing gamble, that WON in an improbable way against a complacent Democratic electorate. there won't be this complacency in 2020, that's for sure.
      The problem may not be complacency, but excessive zeal. Trump will bring out a lot of determined people, but their determination may extend to another bout of 'all or nothing' . Been there, done that, does not end well.

      Dems need someone young & appealing and they need to not tear themselves apart doing it. If they pick a candidate who is toxic to a key demographic or section of the party throws a giant sulk they can stuff it up.
      sigpic

      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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      • in short, they need 2008 Obama back...lol.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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        • So what policy has lead to the poor condition of what is left of the Islamic State? The press appears not to be reporting on it or if any credit is due?

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
            The problem may not be complacency, but excessive zeal. Trump will bring out a lot of determined people, but their determination may extend to another bout of 'all or nothing' . Been there, done that, does not end well.

            Dems need someone young & appealing and they need to not tear themselves apart doing it. If they pick a candidate who is toxic to a key demographic or section of the party throws a giant sulk they can stuff it up.
            Come 2020 there should be another group beginning to make their voices heard. Millennials, as a generation, are just as big as the boomer generation. One is starting to fade out some while the other is starting to appear on the political scene. In my dealings with them they are quite liberal on social issues and a lot of them have been aggravated by Trump. I guess we will see if 2020 brings them out in force for the first time and the torch gets passed.

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            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              in short, they need 2008 Obama back...lol.
              No, but a moratorium on angry pensionable white people would be a good start. :-)


              Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
              Come 2020 there should be another group beginning to make their voices heard. Millennials, as a generation, are just as big as the boomer generation. One is starting to fade out some while the other is starting to appear on the political scene. In my dealings with them they are quite liberal on social issues and a lot of them have been aggravated by Trump. I guess we will see if 2020 brings them out in force for the first time and the torch gets passed.
              The trick is going to be harnessing that demographic in a useful way. Their performance in this election was less than impressive - tantrums, conspiracy theories & sulking. A repeat of the sort of 'all or nothing' thinking displayed last time will see Trump back in the WH one way or another. An attempt to find a 'left wing Trump' would be just as misguided. Some hard work ahead.
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

              Comment


              • When 18-30 year-old women vote in the same proportion as 50-70 year-old men, America will change.
                Dramatically.
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                  The trick is going to be harnessing that demographic in a useful way. Their performance in this election was less than impressive - tantrums, conspiracy theories & sulking. A repeat of the sort of 'all or nothing' thinking displayed last time will see Trump back in the WH one way or another. An attempt to find a 'left wing Trump' would be just as misguided. Some hard work ahead.
                  I don't know about that being an issue. I look at them like I look at new technology. Something new comes along and it may take time to find an application for it, how to use it and then how to integrate it. This last election could be considered their first big foray into a presidential election. Now you can take that experiment, live, learn and move on to apply what you learned. In 2020 all will be four years older, more will now be in their 30's, and we will get to see what they learned. Maybe voting will be seen to be more useful than marching around the street carrying signs.

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                  • surfgun,

                    So what policy has lead to the poor condition of what is left of the Islamic State? The press appears not to be reporting on it or if any credit is due?
                    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...bb9_story.html

                    written by the Post's foremost foreign policy opinion writer. not exactly a news blackout.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • BF,

                      Their performance in this election was less than impressive - tantrums, conspiracy theories & sulking. A repeat of the sort of 'all or nothing' thinking displayed last time will see Trump back in the WH one way or another. An attempt to find a 'left wing Trump' would be just as misguided. Some hard work ahead.
                      a lot of differing demographics at play. age demographics actually held relatively steady; for all the whining of the Sanders millennial set, HRC only lost a few percentage points of support among the young.

                      HRC suffered rather greater losses proportionally among Hispanics and blacks, while white turnout went up slightly-- and went considerably more for Trump than they did Romney.

                      i can't blame HRC too much because she ran a competent campaign; her biggest mistake was probably opening up a campaign headquarters in Brooklyn. she was hit by several black-swan events (the Russian interference and Comey). her lead was such that even with the first, she would have -still- beat Trump were it not for Comey. statistical analysis indicates she probably would have won by a slighter larger margin than Trump did, and by only slightly less than Obama in 2012.

                      and then the talk would be about the concrete Democratic majority, and how things have changed since Virginia went from being a red state to a blue state, and how that was a harbinger for states like North Carolina.

                      hard work ahead, yes, but Trump is pretty much the biggest focusing point there is for Dems.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        surfgun,



                        https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...bb9_story.html

                        written by the Post's foremost foreign policy opinion writer. not exactly a news blackout.
                        Wow! Not a bad article out of the old Washington compost!

                        Comment


                        • I blame Hillary Clinton for only getting some 3 million more votes than her opponent, despite Russian hacking, fake Facebook posts and widespread voter suppression. Apparently the minimum requirement last year was 5 million.

                          But, for the life of me I can’t figure out how any other Democratic candidate, or any Democratic other policy platform, or any other Democratic election strategy would have stopped the Russians, cleaned up the Facebook posts or prevented Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach’s efforts to undermine democracy through voter roll purges.


                          (KK of K is now Vice Chair of The Trumpet’s Commission on Election Integrity [sic] and a candidate for governor of his state.)
                          Trust me?
                          I'm an economist!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            When 18-30 year-old women vote in the same proportion as 50-70 year-old men, America will change.
                            Dramatically.
                            So, never? Young, single adults care about politics a lot less than committed citizens with decades of experiences and an ocean of invested sentiment. I don't see this changing unless you force people to vote.

                            Young, single adults are also largely idiots.
                            "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
                              So, never? Young, single adults care about politics a lot less than committed citizens with decades of experiences and an ocean of invested sentiment. I don't see this changing unless you force people to vote.

                              Young, single adults are also largely idiots.
                              Ban abortion and there will be a backlash.
                              Trust me?
                              I'm an economist!

                              Comment


                              • Other than some hardcore bible thumpers ( when it comes to abortion); most just don’t want their tax dollars subsidizing something that is deemed evil.

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