Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 37

Thread: The coming battle between West and China + Russia.... the conflict of 21st century

  1. #1
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    18 Jun 04
    Posts
    1,845

    The coming battle between West and China + Russia.... the conflict of 21st century

    The more I read and look around the more I understand that we are living in the pre-world conflict years.... just like the people of the 1930-es were not aware of what was cooking, we don't feel it yet. The BOIL THE FROM SLOWLY effect does not let us feel how stage for the new global conflict is gradually being set.

    1. China has become much stronger economically, technologically and militarily than it was over the lat 40 years. The momentum is still up, though I read a lot of analytical research pointing at problems which shall stop China growth or slow it down dramatically.... nonetheless, I feel that even if these problems slow China down, it will pass through its crisis period and resume strong growth.
    2. Most of the Asia (ex China and Japan) enjoyed unprecedented growth in all respect over past 40 years...... Asia is become gradually a dominant economic center of our planet. Population if most of Asian states grew dramatically over last 40 years.... and this trend continues. Moreover, human capital in Asia grew even larger due to education and development of high tech businesses.
    3. USA and Europe gradually loosing their global economic dominance, if we judge by trends in global trade flows. The capital/financial markets are still mostly controlled by West, and this would remain for few next decades.
    4. West still dominates the world with its culture, technology, and overall way of living. Western lifestyle has grown through many cultures, even Saudis love to wear Western luxury brands despite anti-western statements......
    5. However, the global dominance of the West is under question.... if China and rest of Asia continue growth like last 40 years, then in observable horizon they take over economic and trade dominance from West. The growth of West can only be supported by technological and scientific innovation - the demographics, and other labor factors, as well capital are employed at peak - further grown due to these factors is limited... Plotting the average growth rates of the last 20 years gives a good view on how much West can grow over next decades... and it is too slow to keep its global share in economy and trade.
    6. Today USA with less than 25% of global GDP are carrying defense burden for the planet, ensuring stability and free trade. Its fleet is yet giant (comparing to rest of the world), its airforce is yet largest, and its army is spread across the globe. However, the dents and decline can be already observed to a smart analyst. The inefficient democracy and elective procedures lead to high level of corruption, which dented its defense related sector - lobbying has killed rational. USA defense sector/industry is no longer is capable of renewing its arms at reasonable cost and speed, making further maintenance of existing size of army/navy/airforce too heavy for its economy (my opinion is shared by some.... and opposed by others). It is clear that today USA and NATO countries forces are much stronger that it would be in 20 years from now.... especially if you look relative to the forces of the rest of the world and China in 20 years from now...
    7. Every world conflict has happened when a new challenge appeared to existing Hegemony - WW1, WW2, Napoleonic wars.... Roman wars... etc. We see that China, NOT WILLINGLY is heading towards becoming a new challenge to existing hegemony...............
    China is actively growing into the emerging world... the size of transport and energy infrastructure it is building in Africa, Asia and South America is quite impressive.... new railroads, ports, channels, power plants, airports.... and also mines, wells, food processing plants... We sold them so many of our assets... and they keep on betting high over any western investor.... Economic dominance of China in many world regions is INEVITABLE, taking over from West...

    Guys.... I am not stating that conflict (please don't call it a war yet) is inevitable.... I just want you to discuss and read your views how possible this is.... or how avoidable this can be. Indeed, nuclear weapons and communications make our planet too small for another fierce war between global powers.... I hope.... we all do... yes?

    I am not here very often, I will be back in few weeks to read your views. I am intrigued.....

    Garry The Nomad

    ps. regarding Russia.... at this point China has ensured that Russia would supply energy, food and metal ores to China over land communication. Russia and Central Asia are becoming a safe rear supply for China.... Will this make them Chinese supporters if conflict arise? Lets discuss.... not clear yet.
    Last edited by Garry; 19 May 16, at 06:46.

  2. #2
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,364
    I agree with you that China has come a long ways, and after dealing with its current problems, will likely continue to grow in strength and influence.

    And, the Western determined capital / financial rules will remain in force ... at least, in the West. China is setting up a new multi-national regime in Asia, as seen in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and multiple bilateral currency swaps.


    Small points: population growth plateaued in the 1970s in most of Asia (ex-J,C). Thereafter, the rise declined sharply. Rising incomes / education tend to do that.

    US and Europe losing economic dominance?
    • Did you write that on an iPhone?
    • Is the [Western] International Space Station due for servicing?
    • Does your GPS have genome mapping?

    Moving goods isn't "economic dominance;" it's cargo. Conceptualization, followed by hard research and eventual development pays better.

    It is obvious that the US purchased Western (European and Pacific) defense over the past 65 years, while our allies bought social security and healthcare. Probably cheaper in the long run, but that run is now coming to an end, as witnessed by the US putting Europe on notice over conflicts in North Africa. Those hundreds of thousands of refugees aren't washing up on our shores; they're Europe's problem.

    Still, count the carriers operated by the US Navy and match those against the entire rest of the world. Global reach is unique to one country today; others either don't have it or won't use it. China can barely keep PLAN ships serviced off of Eastern Africa, and hasn't sent a fleet around Cape Hope in nearly 600 years.

    There may be a conflict between the US and China on the distant horizon, but neither wants it and both have the means to both avoid or, if desired, delay the onset. Geography favors China for the simple reason that American allies are either too close (Japan, Korea, even Australia) or much too far away (Europe). But, geography is much less important than it used to be (the same is true of aircraft carriers, but both are still important).

  3. #3
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    12,978
    - china is not going to sustain previous or even current growth rates for another 40 years. it's probably not going to sustain it for even 10-15. china's growth is hampered by long-term issues, not short-term correctable trends.

    - Russian short-medium term growth is badly hampered by oil dependence and Putin.

    - re: US military power/acquisitions. it's true that the US acquisitions system is bulky and slow. but this needs to be viewed relative to other powers. moreover, this is not the most important part. the core of US military strength does not come from technology but its people. UK, Australia, Japan, etc all have access to largely similar technologies but none of them have the breadth of capability/experience that the US does.

    and the further away you move from a "western" cultural construct, the harder that is to achieve. Japan and South Korea have quite capable militaries and technologies, and have worked with the US for decades...but if you ever ask a USAF pilot who's studied and trained with them what they, they will invariably have an eye-opening answer.

    this is not to say the US does everything great, in fact, the way we put it is more along the lines of "oh man, we do stupid stuff...but those guys..."
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  4. #4
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    4,122
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    7. Every world conflict has happened when a new challenge appeared to existing Hegemony - WW1, WW2, Napoleonic wars.... Roman wars... etc. We see that China, NOT WILLINGLY is heading towards becoming a new challenge to existing hegemony...............
    China is actively growing into the emerging world... the size of transport and energy infrastructure it is building in Africa, Asia and South America is quite impressive.... new railroads, ports, channels, power plants, airports.... and also mines, wells, food processing plants... We sold them so many of our assets... and they keep on betting high over any western investor.... Economic dominance of China in many world regions is INEVITABLE, taking over from West...
    I am always very wary of such carte blanche statements; when x always y. WW1 and WW2, from my point of view, were tragic mistakes that could easily have been avoided. Si vis pacem para bellum.

  5. #5
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Aug 13
    Location
    Kansas City, United States
    Posts
    1,252
    The world isn't seeing the decline of the West, it is seeing the "rise of the rest". While this does result in a decline in relative power for the US, but it isn't indicative that the US is undergoing internal rot or imminent collapse.

    You focus largely on China as the most recent great power to undergo rapid development, but I don't foresee a return to a bipolar world. Brazil, India, and Nigeria are all poised to emerge as great powers in their own rights with regional influence/hegemony in the coming decades.

    What none of these powers possess however is the ability to project power to the extent that the US is able to. They may be able to eventually dominate their neighborhood, but can't throw their full military weight into offensive action far from home without exposing themselves to powerful neighbors. Friendly relations with the Indians or Russians could change in a matter of months, and if China is busy fighting a foreign war instead of guarding her borders, she may lose territory at home as a result.

    The US, on the other hand, can afford to go full offensive because the geography of the US makes any notions of conquest completely untenable. No neighboring countries present a threat of invasion, and 3000 mile moats to either side mean that no army large enough to have a chance could be transported, much less supplied. US geography doesn't feature any handy islands just offshore to build a credible invasion force upon.

    Overall I think we are headed for a world of regional great powers with hegemony in their immediate backyards with the US remaining as the lone superpower that can credibly project power worldwide.

  6. #6
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    18 Jun 04
    Posts
    1,845
    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    I am always very wary of such carte blanche statements; when x always y. WW1 and WW2, from my point of view, were tragic mistakes that could easily have been avoided. Si vis pacem para bellum.
    Hi Snapper, good to hear from you. There was a lot of diplomatic activity just before WW1 and 2. But they did not avoid a war..... moreover, there were warnings, a smaller wars raging before a big war hit in.... looks like it is not easy to turn around and resolute, when conflict becomes so profound.

    I hope I am wrong, though. Don't want to see my kids to live in a world of a global conflict

  7. #7
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    14 Mar 08
    Posts
    1,900
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    - china is not going to sustain previous or even current growth rates for another 40 years. it's probably not going to sustain it for even 10-15. china's growth is hampered by long-term issues, not short-term correctable trends.
    Well, I'd say limiting Chinese growth is structural/technological issues that face any large economy which isn't commodity dependent, eventually the rate of return on investment and productivity gains become harder to realize as you move up the value chain.

  8. #8
    New Member
    Join Date
    17 May 16
    Location
    Abuja,Nigeria
    Posts
    1
    China's economic growth and eminent dominance of the African continent via expert of commodities,intelligence and technology is arguably at a high pace. The West+US has a strong contender in China,if their growth rate continues at this frequency.
    The Chinese government is gradually introducing the Yuan to these African nation its conducting business with. I see the Yuan running a race with the Dollar on the long run.

  9. #9
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    3,089
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    - china is not going to sustain previous or even current growth rates for another 40 years. it's probably not going to sustain it for even 10-15. china's growth is hampered by long-term issues, not short-term correctable trends.
    Working population decrease. Birth rate decrease. Elderly population increase. Too many males, too few females. One son only to carry on bloodline...

    http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/a...graphic-crisis

  10. #10
    Staff Emeritus
    Military Professional
    Contrary by Nature.
    zraver's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 Oct 06
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    14,515
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    The more I read and look around the more I understand that we are living in the pre-world conflict years.... just like the people of the 1930-es were not aware of what was cooking, we don't feel it yet. The BOIL THE FROM SLOWLY effect does not let us feel how stage for the new global conflict is gradually being set.

    1. China has become much stronger economically, technologically and militarily than it was over the lat 40 years. The momentum is still up, though I read a lot of analytical research pointing at problems which shall stop China growth or slow it down dramatically.... nonetheless, I feel that even if these problems slow China down, it will pass through its crisis period and resume strong growth.
    Doubtful, a lot of China's problems are structural and will take generational change. official corruption, lack of protections for intellectual property stifling conceptual leaps, aging population, serious crippling pollution, lack of personal liberty, law of dimi9shing returns. Long termed sustained growth at any thing like recent levels is unlikely.

    2. Most of the Asia (ex China and Japan) enjoyed unprecedented growth in all respect over past 40 years...... Asia is become gradually a dominant economic center of our planet. Population if most of Asian states grew dramatically over last 40 years.... and this trend continues. Moreover, human capital in Asia grew even larger due to education and development of high tech businesses.
    To an extent, but tis very concentrated- China, Japan, Singapore, S Korea... meanwhile you still have areas that are very much part of the developing world what ever little tech gems they might have.

    3. USA and Europe gradually loosing their global economic dominance, if we judge by trends in global trade flows. The capital/financial markets are still mostly controlled by West, and this would remain for few next decades.

    Maybe, but the current way the UN, IMF, and WB are st up mean the financial and political centers of gravity are not tied to the economic center of gravity.

    4. West still dominates the world with its culture, technology, and overall way of living. Western lifestyle has grown through many cultures, even Saudis love to wear Western luxury brands despite anti-western statements......
    Unlikely to change, though other culture trends have been gaining slowly since the late 60's.

    5. However, the global dominance of the West is under question.... if China and rest of Asia continue growth like last 40 years, then in observable horizon they take over economic and trade dominance from West. The growth of West can only be supported by technological and scientific innovation - the demographics, and other labor factors, as well capital are employed at peak - further grown due to these factors is limited... Plotting the average growth rates of the last 20 years gives a good view on how much West can grow over next decades... and it is too slow to keep its global share in economy and trade.

    Assuming no revolution in energy or productivity is developed


    6. Today USA with less than 25% of global GDP are carrying defense burden for the planet, ensuring stability and free trade. Its fleet is yet giant (comparing to rest of the world), its airforce is yet largest, and its army is spread across the globe. However, the dents and decline can be already observed to a smart analyst. The inefficient democracy and elective procedures lead to high level of corruption, which dented its defense related sector - lobbying has killed rational. USA defense sector/industry is no longer is capable of renewing its arms at reasonable cost and speed, making further maintenance of existing size of army/navy/airforce too heavy for its economy (my opinion is shared by some.... and opposed by others). It is clear that today USA and NATO countries forces are much stronger that it would be in 20 years from now.... especially if you look relative to the forces of the rest of the world and China in 20 years from now...
    NATO is going to get stronger not weaker. Had Putin played nice its entirely possible the Alliance would have fallen apart in 20 years. But an endless series of dickhead moves have given the alliance new life.

    7. Every world conflict has happened when a new challenge appeared to existing Hegemony - WW1, WW2, Napoleonic wars.... Roman wars... etc. We see that China, NOT WILLINGLY is heading towards becoming a new challenge to existing hegemony...............
    China is actively growing into the emerging world... the size of transport and energy infrastructure it is building in Africa, Asia and South America is quite impressive.... new railroads, ports, channels, power plants, airports.... and also mines, wells, food processing plants... We sold them so many of our assets... and they keep on betting high over any western investor.... Economic dominance of China in many world regions is INEVITABLE, taking over from West...
    China might want to look at who won those wars. No entrenched global hegemon has ever been supplanted by force of Army. Granted there have only been 2, but the UK/US have ruled the seas beating all comers since the Spanish Armada wrecked in Ireland, they lost some battles, even a couple of small wars but not global dominance. Every single continental power that has tried, has failed and China is in the worst strategic position of any of the continental contenders. Its incredibly long indefensible coast line and multiple near by major powers whose interests align against any Chinese usurpation of the US role likely predict the winner of any future armed conflict.

    Guys.... I am not stating that conflict (please don't call it a war yet) is inevitable.... I just want you to discuss and read your views how possible this is.... or how avoidable this can be. Indeed, nuclear weapons and communications make our planet too small for another fierce war between global powers.... I hope.... we all do... yes?
    We may or may not make it through the "Great Filter"... so far we've found no evidence that anyone in our galaxy made it.



    Garry The Nomad

    ps. regarding Russia.... at this point China has ensured that Russia would supply energy, food and metal ores to China over land communication. Russia and Central Asia are becoming a safe rear supply for China.... Will this make them Chinese supporters if conflict arise? Lets discuss.... not clear yet.
    If Russia is smart, she'll back the west not China

  11. #11
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    3,089
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    The more I read and look around the more I understand that we are living in the pre-world conflict years.... just like the people of the 1930-es were not aware of what was cooking, we don't feel it yet. The BOIL THE FROM SLOWLY effect does not let us feel how stage for the new global conflict is gradually being set.

    1. China has become much stronger economically, technologically and militarily than it was over the lat 40 years. The momentum is still up, though I read a lot of analytical research pointing at problems which shall stop China growth or slow it down dramatically.... nonetheless, I feel that even if these problems slow China down, it will pass through its crisis period and resume strong growth.
    2. Most of the Asia (ex China and Japan) enjoyed unprecedented growth in all respect over past 40 years...... Asia is become gradually a dominant economic center of our planet. Population if most of Asian states grew dramatically over last 40 years.... and this trend continues. Moreover, human capital in Asia grew even larger due to education and development of high tech businesses.
    I don;'t know what you are reading to reach those conclusions but that is opposite what I read. Read my link where population experts put China in a highly undesirable position. In fact they say the major counties of Asia i.e. Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan all suffer from very low birth rates now. Japan leading the way to the bottom first with an aging population. The others not far behind. As the populations age they will consume less since that is typical what an older population does.

    The link says the real winner, by 2040, will be India given their far greater younger population. I have read that the U.S. also will not be in such a bad situation with her now 360 million people constantly refreshed by immigration. China looks to be the very bright star that burns itself out simply because of it's clumsy People's Party. Russia can't be any better off with only 160 million and her constant corruption. To me it sounds as though the West, at least the U.S., is sitting in a pretty good position which will only get better because others have made bad decisions that will haunt them.

  12. #12
    Military Professional
    Join Date
    06 Aug 03
    Posts
    29,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    The more I read and look around the more I understand that we are living in the pre-world conflict years.... just like the people of the 1930-es were not aware of what was cooking, we don't feel it yet. The BOIL THE FROM SLOWLY effect does not let us feel how stage for the new global conflict is gradually being set.
    Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan ain't scared into an alliance yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    China might want to look at who won those wars.
    Doesn't mean they won't be stupid or miscalculate or being scared into action. The 1979 1st Sino-Vietnam War was a disaster of over-confidence and strategic blunder of unbelievable proportions.

    The strategic objective was to break the Soviet encirclement only to learn the Soviets don't need it at all.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 May 16, at 21:24.
    Chimo

  13. #13
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    14 Mar 08
    Posts
    1,900
    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    I don;'t know what you are reading to reach those conclusions but that is opposite what I read. Read my link where population experts put China in a highly undesirable position. In fact they say the major counties of Asia i.e. Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan all suffer from very low birth rates now. Japan leading the way to the bottom first with an aging population. The others not far behind. As the populations age they will consume less since that is typical what an older population does.

    The link says the real winner, by 2040, will be India given their far greater younger population. I have read that the U.S. also will not be in such a bad situation with her now 360 million people constantly refreshed by immigration. China looks to be the very bright star that burns itself out simply because of it's clumsy People's Party. Russia can't be any better off with only 160 million and her constant corruption. To me it sounds as though the West, at least the U.S., is sitting in a pretty good position which will only get better because others have made bad decisions that will haunt them.
    The problem with India is that they can't follow the East Asian economic development model, thanks to changes in manufacturing.

  14. #14
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    4,122
    Quote Originally Posted by Garry View Post
    Hi Snapper, good to hear from you. There was a lot of diplomatic activity just before WW1 and 2. But they did not avoid a war..... moreover, there were warnings, a smaller wars raging before a big war hit in.... looks like it is not easy to turn around and resolute, when conflict becomes so profound.

    I hope I am wrong, though. Don't want to see my kids to live in a world of a global conflict
    Serbia was at war nearly full time from the Ottoman independence war in 1878; Serbo - Bulgarian War (1885), First Balkan War (1912-13), Second Balkan War (1913) and suddenly the assassination of the Austro Hungarian heir causes a world deluge? The Muscovites were insane to insist of supporting Serbia and the Germans equally insane to match it by insisting on their support of Austro Hungary, Bismark would never have been so insane. No reason it could not have remained just another Balkan War. As for WW2 it could have been stopped before it started - the occupation of the Ruhr was contrary to the armistice and at the time the French were far superior to Hitlers military. Had we even defended Czechoslovakia actively there would have been no Molotov Ribbentrop and no invasion of Poland. Wars start because one side thinks they can win cheaply and make a fait accomplis which others will be forced to accede to; the Crimean and Donbass invasions is just another example of the same. That is why a robust response to Muscovite breaches of international law by military aggression is deterrence.

  15. #15
    Military Professional
    Join Date
    06 Aug 03
    Posts
    29,353
    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    As for WW2 it could have been stopped before it started - the occupation of the Ruhr was contrary to the armistice and at the time the French were far superior to Hitlers military.
    France was not going to spend a million lives keeping what belonged to the Germans, not after the mad rush into WWI.

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Had we even defended Czechoslovakia actively there would have been no Molotov Ribbentrop and no invasion of Poland.
    For all practical purposes, the Czechs were alone. There was no way to give them the help that they needed. They were going to lose the Sudetenland one way or the other. What was going to change if we encouraged them to fight was that they would die inflicting a mortal wound onto the German war machine.
    Chimo

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Dumb Bombing in the 21st Century
    By Aussiegunner in forum Military Aviation
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 31 Dec 10,, 06:06
  2. The Rise of China in the 21st Century & US Policies
    By Freeloader in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 02 May 10,, 23:40
  3. Piracy in the 21st Century
    By BadKharma in forum Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation New Dawn
    Replies: 78
    Last Post: 12 Jan 09,, 11:15
  4. Airline flying in the 21st century.
    By wabpilot in forum Military Aviation
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 06 Sep 07,, 01:05
  5. Fresh Water in the 21st Century
    By wkllaw in forum International Politics
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 30 Aug 07,, 03:04

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •