The more I read and look around the more I understand that we are living in the pre-world conflict years.... just like the people of the 1930-es were not aware of what was cooking, we don't feel it yet. The BOIL THE FROM SLOWLY effect does not let us feel how stage for the new global conflict is gradually being set.
1. China has become much stronger economically, technologically and militarily than it was over the lat 40 years. The momentum is still up, though I read a lot of analytical research pointing at problems which shall stop China growth or slow it down dramatically.... nonetheless, I feel that even if these problems slow China down, it will pass through its crisis period and resume strong growth.
2. Most of the Asia (ex China and Japan) enjoyed unprecedented growth in all respect over past 40 years...... Asia is become gradually a dominant economic center of our planet. Population if most of Asian states grew dramatically over last 40 years.... and this trend continues. Moreover, human capital in Asia grew even larger due to education and development of high tech businesses.
3. USA and Europe gradually loosing their global economic dominance, if we judge by trends in global trade flows. The capital/financial markets are still mostly controlled by West, and this would remain for few next decades.
4. West still dominates the world with its culture, technology, and overall way of living. Western lifestyle has grown through many cultures, even Saudis love to wear Western luxury brands despite anti-western statements......
5. However, the global dominance of the West is under question.... if China and rest of Asia continue growth like last 40 years, then in observable horizon they take over economic and trade dominance from West. The growth of West can only be supported by technological and scientific innovation - the demographics, and other labor factors, as well capital are employed at peak - further grown due to these factors is limited... Plotting the average growth rates of the last 20 years gives a good view on how much West can grow over next decades... and it is too slow to keep its global share in economy and trade.
6. Today USA with less than 25% of global GDP are carrying defense burden for the planet, ensuring stability and free trade. Its fleet is yet giant (comparing to rest of the world), its airforce is yet largest, and its army is spread across the globe. However, the dents and decline can be already observed to a smart analyst. The inefficient democracy and elective procedures lead to high level of corruption, which dented its defense related sector - lobbying has killed rational. USA defense sector/industry is no longer is capable of renewing its arms at reasonable cost and speed, making further maintenance of existing size of army/navy/airforce too heavy for its economy (my opinion is shared by some.... and opposed by others). It is clear that today USA and NATO countries forces are much stronger that it would be in 20 years from now.... especially if you look relative to the forces of the rest of the world and China in 20 years from now...
7. Every world conflict has happened when a new challenge appeared to existing Hegemony - WW1, WW2, Napoleonic wars.... Roman wars... etc. We see that China, NOT WILLINGLY is heading towards becoming a new challenge to existing hegemony...............
China is actively growing into the emerging world... the size of transport and energy infrastructure it is building in Africa, Asia and South America is quite impressive.... new railroads, ports, channels, power plants, airports.... and also mines, wells, food processing plants... We sold them so many of our assets... and they keep on betting high over any western investor.... Economic dominance of China in many world regions is INEVITABLE, taking over from West...
Guys.... I am not stating that conflict (please don't call it a war yet) is inevitable.... I just want you to discuss and read your views how possible this is.... or how avoidable this can be. Indeed, nuclear weapons and communications make our planet too small for another fierce war between global powers.... I hope.... we all do... yes?
I am not here very often, I will be back in few weeks to read your views. I am intrigued.....
Garry The Nomad
ps. regarding Russia.... at this point China has ensured that Russia would supply energy, food and metal ores to China over land communication. Russia and Central Asia are becoming a safe rear supply for China.... Will this make them Chinese supporters if conflict arise? Lets discuss.... not clear yet.
1. China has become much stronger economically, technologically and militarily than it was over the lat 40 years. The momentum is still up, though I read a lot of analytical research pointing at problems which shall stop China growth or slow it down dramatically.... nonetheless, I feel that even if these problems slow China down, it will pass through its crisis period and resume strong growth.
2. Most of the Asia (ex China and Japan) enjoyed unprecedented growth in all respect over past 40 years...... Asia is become gradually a dominant economic center of our planet. Population if most of Asian states grew dramatically over last 40 years.... and this trend continues. Moreover, human capital in Asia grew even larger due to education and development of high tech businesses.
3. USA and Europe gradually loosing their global economic dominance, if we judge by trends in global trade flows. The capital/financial markets are still mostly controlled by West, and this would remain for few next decades.
4. West still dominates the world with its culture, technology, and overall way of living. Western lifestyle has grown through many cultures, even Saudis love to wear Western luxury brands despite anti-western statements......
5. However, the global dominance of the West is under question.... if China and rest of Asia continue growth like last 40 years, then in observable horizon they take over economic and trade dominance from West. The growth of West can only be supported by technological and scientific innovation - the demographics, and other labor factors, as well capital are employed at peak - further grown due to these factors is limited... Plotting the average growth rates of the last 20 years gives a good view on how much West can grow over next decades... and it is too slow to keep its global share in economy and trade.
6. Today USA with less than 25% of global GDP are carrying defense burden for the planet, ensuring stability and free trade. Its fleet is yet giant (comparing to rest of the world), its airforce is yet largest, and its army is spread across the globe. However, the dents and decline can be already observed to a smart analyst. The inefficient democracy and elective procedures lead to high level of corruption, which dented its defense related sector - lobbying has killed rational. USA defense sector/industry is no longer is capable of renewing its arms at reasonable cost and speed, making further maintenance of existing size of army/navy/airforce too heavy for its economy (my opinion is shared by some.... and opposed by others). It is clear that today USA and NATO countries forces are much stronger that it would be in 20 years from now.... especially if you look relative to the forces of the rest of the world and China in 20 years from now...
7. Every world conflict has happened when a new challenge appeared to existing Hegemony - WW1, WW2, Napoleonic wars.... Roman wars... etc. We see that China, NOT WILLINGLY is heading towards becoming a new challenge to existing hegemony...............
China is actively growing into the emerging world... the size of transport and energy infrastructure it is building in Africa, Asia and South America is quite impressive.... new railroads, ports, channels, power plants, airports.... and also mines, wells, food processing plants... We sold them so many of our assets... and they keep on betting high over any western investor.... Economic dominance of China in many world regions is INEVITABLE, taking over from West...
Guys.... I am not stating that conflict (please don't call it a war yet) is inevitable.... I just want you to discuss and read your views how possible this is.... or how avoidable this can be. Indeed, nuclear weapons and communications make our planet too small for another fierce war between global powers.... I hope.... we all do... yes?
I am not here very often, I will be back in few weeks to read your views. I am intrigued.....
Garry The Nomad
ps. regarding Russia.... at this point China has ensured that Russia would supply energy, food and metal ores to China over land communication. Russia and Central Asia are becoming a safe rear supply for China.... Will this make them Chinese supporters if conflict arise? Lets discuss.... not clear yet.
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