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Thread: Patton's Third Army in the Pacific instead of Europe

  1. #121
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    meh, not a believer in the systems theory. consider the performance of the Red Army in 1941. if the Red Army continued to suffer the type of losses it ate in 1941, then the war would have been over by 1943.

    the Russian numbers advantage was significant but not infinite, so they had more of a "cushion" in terms of men's lives to throw away than the Germans did so that the generals could learn their craft. but for the general to learn his craft, he needs to have SOME talent to begin with.
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  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    meh, not a believer in the systems theory. consider the performance of the Red Army in 1941. if the Red Army continued to suffer the type of losses it ate in 1941, then the war would have been over by 1943.

    the Russian numbers advantage was significant but not infinite, so they had more of a "cushion" in terms of men's lives to throw away than the Germans did so that the generals could learn their craft. but for the general to learn his craft, he needs to have SOME talent to begin with.
    For what it's worth I agree 100%.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Well, then someone else will rise to the occasion. There are many smart men in the military. Zhukov rose to where he was because of the purge. Had the purge not happen, there would be others before him to lead the Red Army. Had he been purged, there would be others to take his place.
    The same can of course be said for any of the great generals in history, fate plays some role but in the end without the basic raw talent no leader will rise. As for your comments on Zhukov, regardless of how he came to rise to command he still had to 'produce the goods'.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Too many butterflies. Without Guderian and Von Manstein and Rommell and Kesselring, etc Hitler would have been cowed before Austria.
    Possibly, but in the longer term I would never discount the ability of Hitler's (or for that Matter Stalin's) ego to override common sense. Give them a couple of years and (assuming the absence of these particular Generals) they would have found others to initiate their campaigns across Europe. As has been pointed out other candidates would have emerged - the question is would they have been as good or even perhaps better? Long term I don't think it would have mattered, given the nature of their respective leaders any successful German or Russian General would end up either having their advice ignored or facing a firing squad because they had become too 'popular'. Sucks to be them.
    Last edited by Monash; 27 Feb 16, at 12:08.

  5. #125
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    The Sudetenland. A very simple butterfly. Win or lose, the German war machine dies, even with all the best Generals you can name.
    Chimo

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    most likely had that been a failure, then there would have been an internal coup and Germany would just turn into a standard right-wing military dictatorship or oligarchy instead of a fascist state. one of the biggest miracles of WWII was that the countless number of attempts to kill Hitler or remove him from power never succeeded.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    here's a thought experiment: wonder what would have happened if Zhukov and Konev were Germans, with Manstein and Guderian being the Russians.

    this is a bit reminiscent of the "what if Lee and Grant had switched places" discussion we had a long time ago.
    I don't think there would have been that much of a difference. Hitler would still have saddled Zhukov and Konev with his strategic demands and Stalin would not allow von Manstein and Guderian one step back backwards. During BARBAROSSA, blitzkreig was deep battle. Entire armies were surrounded and destroyed. The idea of a fixing force would have dawned on Soviet generals (even if they are the fictional Guderian and von Manstein here) sooner or later.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Write good articles about theory.Reach 3 stars at most.In Zhukov's case maybe become a regimantal commander.Zhukov is a product of Stalinist era.His real merit is terrorizing.
    At Leningrad he ordered taking hostages and executing families of soldiers who surrendered.His attacks are bloodbaths and failures.
    Unfair assessment. Zhukov won. No matter what talk of German military prowess or brilliance, they had no answer to the Soviet juggernaut. Hell, they didn't even have an answer to the Soviet fixing force. Come to think of it, how many German generals even knew they were being fixed in place?
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 27 Feb 16, at 19:34.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    most likely had that been a failure, then there would have been an internal coup and Germany would just turn into a standard right-wing military dictatorship or oligarchy instead of a fascist state. one of the biggest miracles of WWII was that the countless number of attempts to kill Hitler or remove him from power never succeeded.
    leading to WWII starting in 43-44 when Stalin rolled west over Poland, Romania and Hungary. France would still say meh and do as little as possible to help the Poles, the UK and Italy as German allies would likely go to war if Germany decided to fight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    leading to WWII starting in 43-44 when Stalin rolled west over Poland, Romania and Hungary. France would still say meh and do as little as possible to help the Poles, the UK and Italy as German allies would likely go to war if Germany decided to fight.
    What would be the incentive? Stalin was getting ready to fight Hitler, the two biggest thugs on the block. Hitler gone, Stalin would be king of the hill.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    What would be the incentive? Stalin was getting ready to fight Hitler, the two biggest thugs on the block. Hitler gone, Stalin would be king of the hill.
    Even without Hitler, Germany is trending right through the 30's, Italy has already been in the hard right camp since the 20's, Poland, the Czecks and Finland are all rightwing and Stalin was building a military aimed at expansion, first the Baltic states but eventually Europe. While I don't think Germany interrupted a Soviet invasion in 1941, there is little doubt in my mind that by 1943 the Soviets would be rolling west if Hitler had not invaded in 41.

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    Agreed but without Hitler, Stalin eventually risks taking his place in the eyes of the Anglo/French alliance and other European nations who would tend to gravitate to them for political and military support. Stalin might risk his chances taking small chunks out of Poland, East Prussia, and Hungary etc (maybe even Turkey) but as soon as he tries to make a play for Germany/Central Europe as a whole he would end up facing Britain, France and possibly even Germany in a united campaign against him. And frankly I can't see him even being in a position to contemplate such a move sooner than say the mid 40's. After all Russia was still attempting to re-equip and re-build it's armed forces following the purges when Germany attacked in 41.

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    z,

    Even without Hitler, Germany is trending right through the 30's, Italy has already been in the hard right camp since the 20's, Poland, the Czecks and Finland are all rightwing and Stalin was building a military aimed at expansion, first the Baltic states but eventually Europe. While I don't think Germany interrupted a Soviet invasion in 1941, there is little doubt in my mind that by 1943 the Soviets would be rolling west if Hitler had not invaded in 41.
    i doubt this. Stalin himself said he didn't feel ready for a confrontation with Germany until 1943-1944 anyways. Stalin was never a gambler like Hitler, and he was not interested in the worldwide communism thing which Trotsky advocated for.

    besides, if there was going to be a Soviet offensive now that Germany quieted down, it'd probably be for another round of fighting against the Japanese.
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,



    i doubt this. Stalin himself said he didn't feel ready for a confrontation with Germany until 1943-1944 anyways. Stalin was never a gambler like Hitler, and he was not interested in the worldwide communism thing which Trotsky advocated for.

    besides, if there was going to be a Soviet offensive now that Germany quieted down, it'd probably be for another round of fighting against the Japanese.
    Without Germany, the strongest army in Europe is the Soviets and Stalin has a beef with most of his neighbors and invaded or made territorial demands on 5 of them IIRC and that was with Hitler in the picture. Without a strong Germany, hes not gambling as much as he is picking low hanging fruit. By 43 the purges are over and many of the mechanized formations have been converted to T-34 and KV tanks which are offensive platforms.

  14. #134
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    z,

    . Without a strong Germany
    hitler getting assassinated in 1938 or 1939 still leaves Germany in a fairly strong state.

    moreover there's an immense risk in this timeline that without the nastiness that was Hitler, the Western Allies would have easily found common cause with a right-wing Germany against the Red menace...along with the Poles, too, for that matter.

    I can see Stalin snaffling up the Baltic states but much more than that, he would have a real war on his hands. Germany would never stand by while Poland got swallowed down, and Poland was a pretty decent second-rate power all by herself.

    THAT would be an interesting war if Stalin decided to fight it. French and UK expeditionary troops fighting with the Germans and the Poles in a Russian offensive against Warsaw...
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    hitler getting assassinated in 1938 or 1939 still leaves Germany in a fairly strong state.
    What strong state? Your premise is that Hitler gets knocked off after Sudetenland and if the Germans did Sudetenland, they wouldn't have an army after that. At least, not a mechanized army.
    Chimo

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