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Thread: Oil is at a 12-year low

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    No it can't. Production will always produce pollution. And the solution to pollution is dillution but elimination is imagination.
    Industrial pollution, yes.

    Vehicular pollution can be eliminated through technology. How much does a Tesla pollute?
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    Industrial pollution, yes.

    Vehicular pollution can be eliminated through technology. How much does a Tesla pollute?
    For the anticipated life of the car? 15 car batteries.
    Chimo

  3. #63
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    Did you not yourself say that oil is never going to run out?

    Oil is not free energy. There is a huge amount military and political capital spent by the USA in the Middle East and elsewhere to keep the taps running. What do you think is going to happen if the USA withdrew all military personnel from the Middle East? this is keeping aside the drilling, refining and transportation logistics.

    The benefits of oil are the following:
    1. High energy output per dollar (which will come under competition as renewables and green energy increase efficiency)
    2. Ability to store and transport - storing electricity right now is a more difficult proposition. However, battery technology is getting better
    Oil is "free energy" as in the work is already done by nature. Dig a hole and energy comes out. We don't have to convert it like change wind or sunlight into electricity. Refine it, yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    The revolutions in electricity technology is happening. We now have electric cars on the market that people lust for. If we have low cost versions of Teslas and Faradays running around, that would be a good thing.
    I don't deny this. Just don't use my tax dollars to subsidize rich people buying their large rolling gadget. Did the government subsidize air travel in 1930s to get the cost down? No. It was a life style choice for the rich. The rest of us rode in trains and ships.

    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    Once the Middle East and others annoying people are made impotent by the irrelevance of oil, there would be a lot less trouble in the world.
    Oil has to be used up. As of now, it's so cheap and incredibly efficient as a portable energy store that it cannot be made irrelevant. Battery technology cannot catch up that fast. The minute battery technology advances, demand for oil lessens, price goes down, and more people use it.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    Industrial pollution, yes.

    Vehicular pollution can be eliminated through technology. How much does a Tesla pollute?
    Where does that power come from? Wind? How much land does a wind farm take? How many birds does this wind farm kill per year? Solar? How much land does this solar farm take? How many animals does this solar farm kill per year? What do we use to augment the power production curve of a solar farm? What are those solar panels made of? What about those lithium ion batteries in the Teslas? Do we have an infinite supply of them to run every single car in the US? Think about the lithium mines we need to supply the needs of the entire nation's car fleet. No pollution there I'm sure.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  5. #65
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Where does that power come from? Wind? How much land does a wind farm take? How many birds does this wind farm kill per year? Solar? How much land does this solar farm take? How many animals does this solar farm kill per year? What do we use to augment the power production curve of a solar farm? What are those solar panels made of? What about those lithium ion batteries in the Teslas? Do we have an infinite supply of them to run every single car in the US? Think about the lithium mines we need to supply the needs of the entire nation's car fleet. No pollution there I'm sure.
    Compared to an oil well, refineries, power plant, an entire electrical grid and it's support structure, it's actually a far smaller footprint. For most developing nations, especially energy deficient nations such as China and India, renewable energy is the future. Ofcourse, if you have already spent billions on building the infrastructure, you may well use it; but for societies starting from scratch, building large electrical grids is on the crux of being redundant when you have direct access to energy. The price of Photovoltaic cells keeps dropping by the year, while their efficiency is on the rise.
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  6. #66
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    Compared to an oil well, refineries, power plant, an entire electrical grid and it's support structure, it's actually a far smaller footprint. For most developing nations, especially energy deficient nations such as China and India, renewable energy is the future. Ofcourse, if you have already spent billions on building the infrastructure, you may well use it; but for societies starting from scratch, building large electrical grids is on the crux of being redundant when you have direct access to energy. The price of Photovoltaic cells keeps dropping by the year, while their efficiency is on the rise.
    And of course renewable energy doesn't need any infrastructure at all. I'm sure your electric car charges itself. I'm sure your house is off the grid, powered by batteries at night. Those batteries never have to be serviced. They don't need support structures. They magically show up in your house and will run forever.

    Solar and wind are supplements. They are unreliable and thus can never be the primary source of power.

    I encourage China and India to develop alternative energy. That just leaves more oil for me.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  7. #67
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    And of course renewable energy doesn't need any infrastructure at all.
    It's miniscule compared to conventional energy.

    I'm sure your electric car charges itself. I'm sure your house is off the grid, powered by batteries at night. Those batteries never have to be serviced. They don't need support structures. They magically show up in your house and will run forever.
    The maintenance required by an electric motor compared to a combustion motor is miniscule! PV cells can just sit fine in one place for 20 straight years. Though yes, I'll concede that it remains easier to pay the utility company small monthly payments to maintain your power source than dishing out a lump sum thousand dollars every 7-8 years for new batteries.

    Solar and wind are supplements. They are unreliable and thus can never be the primary source of power.
    They are not as unreliable as you may imagine them to be. Their achilles heel is that they remain expensive technologies to pursue. It's also another matter that US tariffs on far cheaper imported PV cells keeps their price in the US artificially high (Infact, the price for PV cells in the US remains one of the highest in the world).

    I encourage China and India to develop alternative energy. That just leaves more oil for me.
    They already are becoming leaders in adaptation of renewable energy. India is running entire villages on renewable power and went from zero renewable energy generation to the sixth largest in the world in less then a decade. China generates more renewable energy than the US and Europe combined.
    Last edited by Tronic; 22 Jan 16, at 03:37.
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  8. #68
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Where does that power come from? Wind? How much land does a wind farm take? How many birds does this wind farm kill per year? Solar? How much land does this solar farm take? How many animals does this solar farm kill per year? What do we use to augment the power production curve of a solar farm? What are those solar panels made of? What about those lithium ion batteries in the Teslas? Do we have an infinite supply of them to run every single car in the US? Think about the lithium mines we need to supply the needs of the entire nation's car fleet. No pollution there I'm sure.
    Again, industrial pollution vs vehicular pollution. Industrial pollution can be cordoned off and dealt with, vehicular pollution is more difficult to control. By the way, gasoline cars don't need batteries nowadays, do they?
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  9. #69
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    From Sarah Palin's endorsement speech for Trump:

    “And you quit footing the bill for these nations who are oil-rich, we’re paying for some of their squirmishes that have been going on for centuries. Where they’re fighting each other and yelling ‘Allahu akbar,’ calling jihad on each other’s heads forever and ever. Like I’ve said before, let them duke it out and let Allah sort it out.”
    Awesome, lets do this. Lets remove the US troops from the middle east. Then we will realize the real cost of oil.

    Go Trump, lets take America back (to a place of high oil prices)
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  10. #70
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    It's miniscule compared to conventional energy.
    Uh...no. Electricity is electricity. It moves via transmission lines. It doesn't matter where or what generated it.

    Storage wise, that's a whole new world. Oil sits in tanks. They are relatively cheap and simple compared to the amount of energy stored. Electrical power needs batteries. They are heavy, expensive, and complex relative to the energy stored. Any time you put energy into or take energy out of batteries, heat is a byproduct. That's wasted energy, and need to be dissipated safely.

    Again, what kind of battery do you want to use? Lead Acid? Very environmental friendly. Lithium? Very environmental friendly. Nickel Metal Hydride? Very environmental friendly. Where do those things come from? Mines. We are back to digging into the earth.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    The maintenance required by an electric motor compared to a combustion motor is miniscule! PV cells can just sit fine in one place for 20 straight years. Though yes, I'll concede that it remains easier to pay the utility company small monthly payments to maintain your power source than dishing out a lump sum thousand dollars every 7-8 years for new batteries.
    Yes, electric motor is a very simple device, far simpler than ICE. We are back to storage problem. Electricity does not like to be stored. It's not the motor that's the problem. It's the batteries.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    They are not as unreliable as you may imagine them to be. Their achilles heel is that they remain expensive technologies to pursue. It's also another matter that US tariffs on far cheaper imported PV cells keeps their price in the US artificially high (Infact, the price for PV cells in the US remains one of the highest in the world).
    So...we switch our reliance on foreign oil that funds terrorism to reliance on foreign PV cells that funds....the Chinese?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    They already are becoming leaders in adaptation of renewable energy. India is running entire villages on renewable power and went from zero renewable energy generation to the sixth largest in the world in less then a decade. China generates more renewable energy than the US and Europe combined.
    Good for them. They can use their cheap solar and wind while I stick with my expensive oil.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  11. #71
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    Again, industrial pollution vs vehicular pollution. Industrial pollution can be cordoned off and dealt with, vehicular pollution is more difficult to control. By the way, gasoline cars don't need batteries nowadays, do they?
    Have you seen how clean our current cars are?

    ICE cars do need batteries. And they do wear out. Now, imagine that, but on a scale a few orders of magnitude larger.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  12. #72
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    From Sarah Palin's endorsement speech for Trump:

    Awesome, lets do this. Lets remove the US troops from the middle east. Then we will realize the real cost of oil.

    Go Trump, lets take America back (to a place of high oil prices)
    I agree with her. Don't interfere the muslims when they are killing each other.

    I am against pulling out our troops. We need to kinda prod them along in their killing process. Sell them more weapons. Then sell them counter measures....
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  13. #73
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Uh...no. Electricity is electricity. It moves via transmission lines. It doesn't matter where or what generated it.
    No, it does matter where or what generated it. Unlike conventional energy, PV or Wind is actual direct access energy. There are several farmhouses and cottages even in the US countryside who have gone completely renewable, not because they were trying to be green but due to it being the most economic option. In many places, paying utility companies a set cost/foot to lay down new transmission lines, where none exist, is a more expensive option than generating your own electricity. Now imagine how deep of a pocket would be needed if someone tried to generate their own electricity indefinitely using only ICE generators! Sure, the PV system will be a high initial cost compared to an ICE generator, but think of the operating cost! How long until the ICE burns through your budget?

    Storage wise, that's a whole new world. Oil sits in tanks. They are relatively cheap and simple compared to the amount of energy stored. Electrical power needs batteries. They are heavy, expensive, and complex relative to the energy stored. Any time you put energy into or take energy out of batteries, heat is a byproduct. That's wasted energy, and need to be dissipated safely.
    When you talk of using oil to generate mechanical work (which in turn generates electricity), you're talking about several layers of inefficiency and heat losses which makes this comparison with battery heat losses completely inane! Taking a perfectly reversible heat engine (theoretically, the Carnot cycle) you'd probably still be looking at maximum efficiencies of approximately ~50-60% in your current thermal power generation cycles. The fact that actually building a totally reversible system is physically impossible, you're looking at efficiencies which are on the lower end of 50%. Speaking of dissipating that heat 'safely', how do you imagine your common thermal plants do it? Ever notice how the temperature of the water source near the thermal plants is higher than normal?


    Again, what kind of battery do you want to use? Lead Acid? Very environmental friendly. Lithium? Very environmental friendly. Nickel Metal Hydride? Very environmental friendly. Where do those things come from? Mines. We are back to digging into the earth.
    We'll never stop digging into the earth, but atleast we reduce dumping into the air. Lithium would be my choice as of now, till we come up with something better. It's recyclable and re-usable. Why it's not being recycled faster than it's being dug up is the same reason as why people still cling to oil. It's still relatively cheap to dig until the demand shoots up.

    Yes, electric motor is a very simple device, far simpler than ICE. We are back to storage problem. Electricity does not like to be stored. It's not the motor that's the problem. It's the batteries.
    Again, Batteries are not as big of a problem as they are made out to be. Infact, you may not be used to it in the States, but having lived in India, most middle-class households already operate inverters and batteries to store their energy for use during downtimes (power cuts are a regular occurrence due to a deficiency in power generation).

    So...we switch our reliance on foreign oil that funds terrorism to reliance on foreign PV cells that funds....the Chinese?
    Aren't your Macbooks, iphones, IBM/Lenovos, already funding the Chinese?

    As for comparing oil with PV cells; not an adequate comparison. How about Lithium? Everyone would be funding the S.Americans; Bolivians, Chileans and Argentines mostly. The good thing with battery technology however is that it still remains very dynamic.

    Good for them. They can use their cheap solar and wind while I stick with my expensive oil.
    Trust me, I'm the last person to complain. I work in an industry where the more oil and natural gas you're willing to use, the fatter my bonus at the end of the year. (Only thing that has really driven us to higher efficiency products is government regulation, not lack of consumer demand).

    Going with the most convenient option available is totally understandable. Renewable energy has only started to mature in the last decade, while conventional has almost half a century worth of infrastructure built into it. I'm just sometimes dumbstruck on some of the arguments against renewable. I can understand if you work in the oil industry and it happens to be your bread and butter; otherwise, resistance to renewable is likely the same resistance to change which every major technology before it has faced.
    Last edited by Tronic; 23 Jan 16, at 17:13.
    The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but seeing with new eyes.

  14. #74
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    I agree that electricity storage problem when it comes to all these various forms of 'renewable' energy. How many car batteries would take to cook a roast dinner on an electric cooker? Who even wants to cook on an electric cooker?

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    I agree that electricity storage problem when it comes to all these various forms of 'renewable' energy. How many car batteries would take to cook a roast dinner on an electric cooker? Who even wants to cook on an electric cooker?
    One of the best ways to store electricity is to actually move water from a lower place to a higher place. Unfortunately not every place has the right geography.

    A second way is to use large scale batteries designed for storage. That technology is gradually coming along.

    A third way is to use electricity to produce hydrogen or hydrocarbons. The technology is slowly coming along. Hydrogen is probably going to work, hydrocarbons could be a dead end.

    For cooking, learn to love sou vide. :P

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