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Thread: North Korea nuke test

  1. #91
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Even With Failures, North Korea's Nuclear Program Races Ahead

    Last week, the U.S. and South Korea say they detected a failed North Korean missile test, probably of Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles. And last month, Pyongyang conducted a fifth nuclear test.

    "The (U.S.) president-elect is going to face a problem from North Korea that none of his predecessors or her predecessors have faced," says Jami Miscik, former CIA deputy director for intelligence. "It is well on the way to becoming not just a nuclear power, but a power able to deliver a nuclear missile."

    I still can't help but think that we have an OPLAN out there somewhere that is designed just for this specific contingency; a couple of Trident D5's or Minuteman LGM-30G's would certainly do the trick.
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  2. #92
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stitch View Post
    I still can't help but think that we have an OPLAN out there somewhere that is designed just for this specific contingency; a couple of Trident D5's or Minuteman LGM-30G's would certainly do the trick.
    If at all possible, I don't think we want to be the ones to deal with the aftermath of any North Korean regime removal. The refugee crisis would be just as bad or worse than Syria. North Korean refugees are far less likely to have marketable skills compared to their Syrian counterparts, which will hurt their chances of integration into other societies.

  3. #93
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    If at all possible, I don't think we want to be the ones to deal with the aftermath of any North Korean regime removal. The refugee crisis would be just as bad or worse than Syria. North Korean refugees are far less likely to have marketable skills compared to their Syrian counterparts, which will hurt their chances of integration into other societies.
    I've heard it said that that would probably be the most severe and far-reaching result of any large, armed conflict with NorK, is the refugee crisis, which would probably overwhelm both China and South Korea (probably mostly China).
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  4. #94
    Idiot Mode [ON] OFF Senior Contributor YellowFever's Avatar
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    I've had a discussion with my brother a few months ago about this and he takes the opposite view.

    His take on it is that the North Koreans are docile after 60 years of Kim's rule and as long as there isn't a vast amount of "Western news" flowing into North Korea, it should be OK.

    They will do what the authorities tell them to do and a lot of them are still under the illusion that they live better than anybody on earth.

    It will be a huge burden financially but he discounts any sort of civil unrest.

    There will probably be more South Koreans crossing the border with food and such to help their families than anything else.

    There are huge "save the North" campaigns all over Korea by groups of private citizens for contingencies for when the war is over (and we would have presumably won). The sad thing about it is it's mostly run by older people that still remember the Korean War (the young couldn't care less) and government is not helping at all.

    The know-how to farm and grow food is there. It's the infrastructure that lacks.

    I hope this happens...my family owns (on paper at least) about 150 acres about 20 miles North of the DMZ. :D
    Last edited by YellowFever; 26 Oct 16, at 22:15.

  5. #95
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Are things coming to a head now?

    I listen to others talk about a few bombs over here and a few missiles over there and we can eliminate the threat. I try to talk some sense to them that things aren't that easy and that Kim and his Army are no Saddam and his Army which they equate to each other. Being as how Kim can inflict tremendous damage to the area around Seoul, his good stuff is heavily bunkered, I ask them how many casualties are acceptable? A few answer that trading innocent Korean lives for Americans is Ok with them. Makes me wonder who the bad guy is when Assad kills innocent Syrians, Kim would kill innocent Koreans, some Americans would kill innocent Koreans.

    Is there going to be any clean way out of this since I can't believe that Kim would give up his nuclear weapon program voluntarily.

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    Another reason why China is leery about regime changing Kim III (apart from the refugees, reconstruction costs and transnational violence) is that it doesn't take too much to turn some of those Scuds and MRBMs at Shenyang and Beijing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Are things coming to a head now?

    I listen to others talk about a few bombs over here and a few missiles over there and we can eliminate the threat. I try to talk some sense to them that things aren't that easy and that Kim and his Army are no Saddam and his Army which they equate to each other. Being as how Kim can inflict tremendous damage to the area around Seoul, his good stuff is heavily bunkered, I ask them how many casualties are acceptable? A few answer that trading innocent Korean lives for Americans is Ok with them. Makes me wonder who the bad guy is when Assad kills innocent Syrians, Kim would kill innocent Koreans, some Americans would kill innocent Koreans.

    Is there going to be any clean way out of this since I can't believe that Kim would give up his nuclear weapon program voluntarily.
    There's no clean way out of this but we will not give KJU a shot at Seattle. Push comes to shove he will be dealt with no matter the cost.

  8. #98
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Media reports are now indicating a 2nd missile test timed to coincide with this weeks national celebrations in NK also failed (apparently by blowing up almost immediately after launch). So it would appear that propaganda aside, their capacity to produce and successfully launch long range strategic missiles remains hypothetical - in the immediate future at least. (Not that this is much comfort to SK nationals who live under the constant shadow of NK's short range missile and artillery arsenals.)

    As far as I can see the only way to really put pressure on NK is for China to impose an immediate and total freeze on all cross border trade with NK, in both directions. This is as opposed to recent restrictions they appear to have imposed on mineral (mainly coal) exports from NK. Yes these restrictions send a 'message ' of sorts to NK and go part way to appeasing US concerns but it would take a complete trade blockade to force NKs hand and I don't seen China being willing doing to do this as yet, not unless Trump puts something nice and shiny down on the table in exchange.

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    The problem is, what happens if China shutdowns trade completely (there are rumors going around that China threatened a permanent oil embargo if a sixth DPRK nuke was tested last weekend)?

    Kim almost certainly won't back down, and neither Seoul nor Beijing want to manage (and pay the reconstruction costs) of a North Korean collapse, or worse, the aftermath of the Korean War, the 21st Century edition.

  10. #100
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monash View Post
    Media reports are now indicating a 2nd missile test timed to coincide with this weeks national celebrations in NK also failed (apparently by blowing up almost immediately after launch). So it would appear that propaganda aside, their capacity to produce and successfully launch long range strategic missiles remains hypothetical - in the immediate future at least. (Not that this is much comfort to SK nationals who live under the constant shadow of NK's short range missile and artillery arsenals.)

    As far as I can see the only way to really put pressure on NK is for China to impose an immediate and total freeze on all cross border trade with NK, in both directions. This is as opposed to recent restrictions they appear to have imposed on mineral (mainly coal) exports from NK. Yes these restrictions send a 'message ' of sorts to NK and go part way to appeasing US concerns but it would take a complete trade blockade to force NKs hand and I don't seen China being willing doing to do this as yet, not unless Trump puts something nice and shiny down on the table in exchange.
    While it sounds tempting I don't like it. We are going to bargain with China over shutting down the border? What if they request all hands off regarding Taiwan? I know not one Taiwanese who wants anything to do with China given the nice example set in Hong Kong. What if they want the US navy out of the South China Sea for good? The sea belongs to us right up to the 12 mile limit of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines? What if they ask us to sell out Japan and remove our troops from Okinawa? There are all sorts of bad permutations possible not to mention setting a bad example for the rest of the world. Our interests are tradeable?

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    The problem is, what happens if China shutdowns trade completely (there are rumors going around that China threatened a permanent oil embargo if a sixth DPRK nuke was tested last weekend)?

    Kim almost certainly won't back down, and neither Seoul nor Beijing want to manage (and pay the reconstruction costs) of a North Korean collapse, or worse, the aftermath of the Korean War, the 21st Century edition.
    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    While it sounds tempting I don't like it. We are going to bargain with China over shutting down the border? What if they request all hands off regarding Taiwan? I know not one Taiwanese who wants anything to do with China given the nice example set in Hong Kong. What if they want the US navy out of the South China Sea for good? The sea belongs to us right up to the 12 mile limit of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines? What if they ask us to sell out Japan and remove our troops from Okinawa? There are all sorts of bad permutations possible not to mention setting a bad example for the rest of the world. Our interests are tradeable?
    I think the scenario Skywatcher paints is more likely rather than some outrageous demands from China. If China asked such things we would just say no. China ultimately has to act in its own interests, which includes NK's nuclear program going no further. The problem is China cannot risk collapsing the regime, which will be a calamity for the Chinese regions bordering NK. Ultimately, they may think even US military action that destroys NK's nuclear program but does not collapse the regime may be preferable to a total boarder blockade which probably will collapse the regime or lead it to desperate measures in retaliation against China.

  12. #102
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YellowFever View Post
    I've had a discussion with my brother a few months ago about this and he takes the opposite view.

    His take on it is that the North Koreans are docile after 60 years of Kim's rule and as long as there isn't a vast amount of "Western news" flowing into North Korea, it should be OK.

    They will do what the authorities tell them to do and a lot of them are still under the illusion that they live better than anybody on earth.

    It will be a huge burden financially but he discounts any sort of civil unrest.

    There will probably be more South Koreans crossing the border with food and such to help their families than anything else.

    There are huge "save the North" campaigns all over Korea by groups of private citizens for contingencies for when the war is over (and we would have presumably won). The sad thing about it is it's mostly run by older people that still remember the Korean War (the young couldn't care less) and government is not helping at all.

    The know-how to farm and grow food is there. It's the infrastructure that lacks.

    I hope this happens...my family owns (on paper at least) about 150 acres about 20 miles North of the DMZ. :D
    Rotten burgeoisie! You can retire to your estates in your old age.

    I agree with your bro,pal.The thing in any Korean war is to drop more food than bombs.They'll be too busy vomiting than shooting.If there is occupation or whatever intermediate regime,even private donations will be enough.Normal people have so much compared to those poor chaps is beyond ridiculous.

    I don't know what ''huge means''.Is just food.Then will be reconstruction,which will create an imbalance.The thing is to sideline the commie bureaucrats without getting them desperate enough to start troubles.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  13. #103
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    While it sounds tempting I don't like it. We are going to bargain with China over shutting down the border? What if they request all hands off regarding Taiwan? I know not one Taiwanese who wants anything to do with China given the nice example set in Hong Kong. What if they want the US navy out of the South China Sea for good? The sea belongs to us right up to the 12 mile limit of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines? What if they ask us to sell out Japan and remove our troops from Okinawa? There are all sorts of bad permutations possible not to mention setting a bad example for the rest of the world. Our interests are tradeable?
    I wasn't actually thinking of concessions on that kind of scale. But China could ask Trump to back down on the anti-China trade rhetoric, not push so hard in the South China Sea and agree to some kind of long term draw down in the US military presence in Korea assuming a Chinese trade blockage leads to:

    A) Some form of regime change in NK ie a military coup deposes Kim or leaves him in place as a puppet; or

    B) The trade blockade forces him to back down and let the West and China dismantle his reactor and bomb program.
    Last edited by Monash; 18 Apr 17, at 12:43.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    While it sounds tempting I don't like it. We are going to bargain with China over shutting down the border? What if they request all hands off regarding Taiwan? I know not one Taiwanese who wants anything to do with China given the nice example set in Hong Kong. What if they want the US navy out of the South China Sea for good? The sea belongs to us right up to the 12 mile limit of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines? What if they ask us to sell out Japan and remove our troops from Okinawa? There are all sorts of bad permutations possible not to mention setting a bad example for the rest of the world. Our interests are tradeable?
    whose us?

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    While it sounds tempting I don't like it. We are going to bargain with China over shutting down the border? What if they request all hands off regarding Taiwan? I know not one Taiwanese who wants anything to do with China given the nice example set in Hong Kong. What if they want the US navy out of the South China Sea for good? The sea belongs to us right up to the 12 mile limit of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines? What if they ask us to sell out Japan and remove our troops from Okinawa? There are all sorts of bad permutations possible not to mention setting a bad example for the rest of the world. Our interests are tradeable?
    I don't think it's a bad example for the rest of the world. When your position in the world order is not commensurate with your national power, you naturally want to upset that order. In that sense, China is not setting, but rather following examples set by others. It's human nature.

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