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Thread: North Korea nuke test

  1. #76
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    Another test. 5.3 Richter. By comparison, Hiroshima was a 6.
    Chimo

  2. #77
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    Finally, 10 kts.
    Chimo

  3. #78
    Contributor DarthSiddius's Avatar
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    Makes me wonder how long they can keep carrying out these tests without any serious repercussions. 5 tests now I believe...

  4. #79
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarthSiddius View Post
    Makes me wonder how long they can keep carrying out these tests without any serious repercussions. 5 tests now I believe...
    My guess is nothing will happen until NorK actually launches a missile (armed or not) at somebody (besides the Sea of Japan); the US (and, by extension, South Korea) have several contingency plans drawn up in the form of OPLAN 5015 and OPLAN 5027-16, which range from purely defensive actions by the Republic of Korea Armed Forces (and whatever US units happen to be in South Korea), to a full-scale combined-arms invasion of North Korea with the stated objective of neutralizing or destroying North Korea's immediate offensive capability. None of the stated options include a preemptive nuclear strike against key tactical and strategic targets in NorK, but that certainly can't be ruled out; I'm sure all options are considered and planned for. The most aggressive scenario involves:

    "Six B-2s each armed with 80 500-lb JDAMs sequentially launch from Guam. The strike is coordinated with several divisions of B-1s with 12 JDAMs per aircraft and F-22s with two laser-guided precision-guided weapons per aircraft, taking off from other bases in the region. These strikes would be deconflicted with the launch of more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the various cruisers and submarines positioned in the Pacific. Six additional B-2s, flying out of their home base in Missouri, time their arrival closely behind – loaded with 24 1,000-lb JDAMs or 16 2,000-lb JDAMs. One thousand targets could be destroyed prior to sunrise. This would prepare the battleground for ground forces to rapidly sweep to the North under a protective close air support umbrella of tactical aircraft from two carrier battle groups and other aircraft and assault helicopters in the South."

    http://openscenarios.ida.org/scenari...orth_Korea.pdf

    However, I imagine something on that scale would be an option of last resort (which is still better than a W88 or two detonating in Pyongyang).
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarthSiddius View Post
    Makes me wonder how long they can keep carrying out these tests without any serious repercussions. 5 tests now I believe...
    World's reaction has been rather ho-hum. Big Deal. They've been expecting this for over 10 years.

    It really changes nothing. North Korea is still an economic basket case, isolated, and the only real threat is opening the refugee flood gates. Everything else, under close examination, are mere dog and pony shows.

    The recent SLBM launch. South Korea TV using commercial satellite fees watched the sub leave port. And the sub only has 2 tubes and it launched those birds within sight of its port.

    The only thing of "interest" is that this was a solid fuelled bird meaning it would take minutes to launch ... but what this ignores is that it would still take hours to mate a warhead onto the bird.

    What's left unsaid is that Seoul has a first strike capability. The launch sites and the subs are known and minutes away from destruction. Seoul can drastically reduce North Korean nuclear strike capabilities to the point where Kim has to rely on luck to get a nuke through. It's not 100% and Kim is relying on this to get some respect. However, this allow Seoul to say, go fuck yourself.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 09 Sep 16, at 12:47.
    Chimo

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Finally, 10 kts.
    Some are estimating north wards of 20kt.....

    In any case this is a clear indication of advancement for North Korea while the free world sleeps. What I don't get is why democratic powers seem to be sleeping at the wheel while despotism is putting the pieces together to upset the free world, its almost 1930s replay again.

  7. #82
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    Maybe Zinja, the democratic powers are sleeping because President Clinton solved this problem in 1994.

    If you don't look for a problem..... wa-la!! problem does not exist.

    the following is a transcript from CNN 21OCT94.

    "Before I take your questions, I'd like to say just a word about the framework with North Korea that Ambassador Gallucci signed this morning. This is a good deal for the United States," Clinton said at the press conference.

    "North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons.

    "South Korea, with support from Japan and other nations, will bear most of the cost of providing North Korea with fuel to make up for the nuclear energy it is losing, and they will pay for an alternative power system for North Korea that will allow them to produce electricity while making it much harder for them to produce nuclear weapons.

    "The United States and international inspectors will carefully monitor North Korea to make sure it keeps its commitments. Only as it does so will North Korea fully join the community of nations."

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by looking4NSFS View Post
    Maybe Zinja, the democratic powers are sleeping because President Clinton solved this problem in 1994.

    If you don't look for a problem..... wa-la!! problem does not exist.
    The problem is long after Clinton, Bush & Obama are gone, this pussy footing is going to come home to roost. There is a clear pattern that is emerging here; the west lacks resolve, if you hold out long enough you get what you want. I really do feel sorry for Asian allies like Japan, SK, Australia, Phillipins etc in the region. One can't help but wonder what is going on in the minds of especially Japan and SK. You have two countries who are not your allies, to put it mildly, and they are deploying nukes. All you can do is just cling onto bluster and empty UN resolutions, and hope for the best, it really sucks!

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stitch View Post
    My guess is nothing will happen until NorK actually launches a missile (armed or not) at somebody (besides the Sea of Japan); the US (and, by extension, South Korea) have several contingency plans drawn up in the form of OPLAN 5015 and OPLAN 5027-16, which range from purely defensive actions by the Republic of Korea Armed Forces (and whatever US units happen to be in South Korea), to a full-scale combined-arms invasion of North Korea with the stated objective of neutralizing or destroying North Korea's immediate offensive capability. None of the stated options include a preemptive nuclear strike against key tactical and strategic targets in NorK, but that certainly can't be ruled out; I'm sure all options are considered and planned for. The most aggressive scenario involves:

    "Six B-2s each armed with 80 500-lb JDAMs sequentially launch from Guam. The strike is coordinated with several divisions of B-1s with 12 JDAMs per aircraft and F-22s with two laser-guided precision-guided weapons per aircraft, taking off from other bases in the region. These strikes would be deconflicted with the launch of more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the various cruisers and submarines positioned in the Pacific. Six additional B-2s, flying out of their home base in Missouri, time their arrival closely behind – loaded with 24 1,000-lb JDAMs or 16 2,000-lb JDAMs. One thousand targets could be destroyed prior to sunrise. This would prepare the battleground for ground forces to rapidly sweep to the North under a protective close air support umbrella of tactical aircraft from two carrier battle groups and other aircraft and assault helicopters in the South."

    http://openscenarios.ida.org/scenari...orth_Korea.pdf

    However, I imagine something on that scale would be an option of last resort (which is still better than a W88 or two detonating in Pyongyang).
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    World's reaction has been rather ho-hum. Big Deal. They've been expecting this for over 10 years.

    It really changes nothing. North Korea is still an economic basket case, isolated, and the only real threat is opening the refugee flood gates. Everything else, under close examination, are mere dog and pony shows.

    The recent SLBM launch. South Korea TV using commercial satellite fees watched the sub leave port. And the sub only has 2 tubes and it launched those birds within sight of its port.

    The only thing of "interest" is that this was a solid fuelled bird meaning it would take minutes to launch ... but what this ignores is that it would still take hours to mate a warhead onto the bird.

    What's left unsaid is that Seoul has a first strike capability. The launch sites and the subs are known and minutes away from destruction. Seoul can drastically reduce North Korean nuclear strike capabilities to the point where Kim has to rely on luck to get a nuke through. It's not 100% and Kim is relying on this to get some respect. However, this allow Seoul to say, go fuck yourself.
    See I get what you all are saying but think about what each additional test indicates to the nuclear establishment in India and Pakistan for instance. I'm sure the nuclear scientists there are itching for more tests. What about Iran? Everyone's like - "Darn! Here we go, NK did it again. Ah well". Wouldn't it be too late when they have an operational nuke and target another nation?
    Last edited by DarthSiddius; 10 Sep 16, at 04:06.

  10. #85
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    So my question for any resident experts with nuclear engineering experience is as follows. Is there any way to take out the NK reactor complex producing the feed-stock for their weapon program without a high probability of a causing a meltdown?

    Taking out peripheral systems like cooling towers, pump rooms and electricity sub-stations etc won't do more than cause a temporary set-back as they can be re-built I'm talking about the reactor containment systems proper.

  11. #86
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    Can't do it. You can't stop Kim from going self destruct.
    Chimo

  12. #87
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    This is the first time that Seoul acknowledges it's overmatch strength against the North.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37331852

    Implicit in this comment is that Seoul can destroy the North militarily.
    Chimo

  13. #88
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    Been thinking more about my own question. The reactor has been and needs to be shut down at intervals for maintenance etc yes? If thermal imaging and other sensors tell you this has happened take it out then. Presumably after very carefully calculating where (and with what) you need to hit it in order to cause a containment vessel collapse - as opposed to a more 'outwards' orientated demolition.

    Then carpet bomb the rest of the site for good measure.

    One thing seems certain as soon as they perfect their 'bomb' NK will start trying to sell the tech and/the bombs themselves. The lure of that much hard currency would be irresistible to the regime.

    I realize it's easy for me to suggest the above since I'm comfortably distant from both the prevailing fallout zones and the line of fire when NK responds (and I say when they respond because does anyone really see see them letting something like this slip through to the catcher?). It just seems to me that the rest of the world, including China is running out of options - the sanctions aren't working.
    Last edited by Monash; 12 Sep 16, at 09:28.

  14. #89
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    Things change. China would rather see a nuclear armed North Korea than a united Korea under American control. China no longer see a prosperous united Korea allied with the US as a good thing since the US has been actively denying China her "rightful" place in the South China Seas and the Sea of Japan.

    And China would be the one who would bore the brunt of any refugee crisis since people have a tendency to flee the fighting.

    And THAAD in Korea is not something the Chinese wanted. Then it is better that THAAD watch the North Koreans rather than the Chinese.
    Chimo

  15. #90
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    BBC reports Kim is considering going for test num 6 ?

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