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Thread: North Korea nuke test

  1. #46
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Steve you are not ruthless enough in your reasoning, as a result you got the answer backwards.

    The chief danger from successfully killing Kim is a collapse of the regime. if the regime does not collapse the results will be largely positive.
    I tend to see the Kim family as figureheads who have had a cult of personality built around them by the real power brokers in NK who are probably high ranking military. If that is indeed the case, then assassination would piss them off without actually causing much disruption in the running of the state. I guess it depends on how much influence the Kims have in state affairs.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    I tend to see the Kim family as figureheads who have had a cult of personality built around them by the real power brokers in NK who are probably high ranking military. If that is indeed the case, then assassination would piss them off without actually causing much disruption in the running of the state. I guess it depends on how much influence the Kims have in state affairs.
    Not at the rate Kim Jong Un is killing off senior advisors. He and he alone is in charge, and it's a Stalinist reign of terror.

  3. #48
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    So here's a question, what if the US killed Kim Jong Un. Decapitation strike, shot down his airplane, Hellfire from a drone, what ever. Kills him and just him. What happens next?
    Not much would change.

    Someone else, possibly even worse than Lil' Kim, would fill the power vacuum, and nothing would change; my guess is it would be a high-ranking military official, not another member of the Kim family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a few of the more powerful warlords in NorK don't already have plans in place for a takeover should the "worst" happen to Lil' Kim.
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  4. #49
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    It would be akin to a religious civil war. Those who will want to follow Kim's vision and those who would said enough is enough. Both Beijing and Seoul could collapse Kim today. Neither has done anything to do so and even put up with his nuclear bomb tantrums. Mainly because both fear his absence far, far worst.
    Chimo

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    It would be akin to a religious civil war. Those who will want to follow Kim's vision and those who would said enough is enough. Both Beijing and Seoul could collapse Kim today. Neither has done anything to do so and even put up with his nuclear bomb tantrums. Mainly because both fear his absence far, far worst.
    Both fear a NK collapse. No one will be following Kim's ideology because there's nothing coherent there they can follow. he's just their king, pure and simple.

    if Kim goes, every one of those guys will be out for themselves, and they'll be ready to koto to Beijing because let's face it, they got to where they are by crawling on their knees all their lives, not about to change now.

    problem is if Kim dies those guys may not be able to hold it together. indeed if they could Kim would already be dead.

  6. #51
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    This came out of left field.

    Russia warns North Korea over threats of nuclear strike

    While I wouldn't go as far as some other people suggesting that Moscow has invasion plans (although it's been 5 days and no clarification statements from Moscow about intent), it does point out if Kim wants to threaten nuclear war, then he will die alone and Moscow will do nothing to stop it.

    There's a hint that Moscow might even help to kill Kim.
    Chimo

  7. #52
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    This came out of left field.

    Russia warns North Korea over threats of nuclear strike

    While I wouldn't go as far as some other people suggesting that Moscow has invasion plans (although it's been 5 days and no clarification statements from Moscow about intent), it does point out if Kim wants to threaten nuclear war, then he will die alone and Moscow will do nothing to stop it.

    There's a hint that Moscow might even help to kill Kim.
    Well, if either one of the two Asian giants were to invade NorK, it would probably be Russia; Putin's desperate to make Russia a superpower again, and China knows it would be more trouble than it's worth to invade Nork (they saw what a headache we had with Iraq after 2005).
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  8. #53
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    As of right now though, only the Chinese are militarily ready to do the job. The 38th and 39th Group Armies are still on the North Korean border.
    Chimo

  9. #54
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    As of right now though, only the Chinese are militarily ready to do the job. The 38th and 39th Group Armies are still on the North Korean border.
    They have this habbit to appear out of nowhere
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  10. #55
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    This came out of left field.

    Russia warns North Korea over threats of nuclear strike

    While I wouldn't go as far as some other people suggesting that Moscow has invasion plans (although it's been 5 days and no clarification statements from Moscow about intent), it does point out if Kim wants to threaten nuclear war, then he will die alone and Moscow will do nothing to stop it.

    There's a hint that Moscow might even help to kill Kim.
    Is Russia signalling the Norks, or China?
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility

    Gottfried Leibniz

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Is Russia signalling the Norks, or China?
    China-Russia Talks Focus on North Korea

    China also had been quiet about the Russian statement.
    Chimo

  12. #57
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    China-Russia Talks Focus on North Korea

    China also had been quiet about the Russian statement.
    Because the Russians are right. NKs nuclear threats are exactly the kind of thing the US could use as a casus belli if we decided to intervene. Particularly now that they have demonstrated that they can build a somewhat functional bomb and claim to have miniaturized them. The Russians may very well see the deployment of THAAD and large US/SK exercises as laying the groundwork for just such an intervention.

    With Russian commitments in Syria and the economic pressure they are currently under, they aren't in a great position to help NK should such an intervention take place. That would leave the competition to decide the fate of the Korean peninsula without a Russian seat at the table. They may fear that the US and China will decide to partition NK without their input.

  13. #58
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    I really can't see a Russian brigade group coming under Chinese command. That's about the size of what the Russians could commit.
    Chimo

  14. #59
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Looks like both China and Russia are not happy with Kim. Both voted for sanction (first time ever?) and now Russia signals war if NK continues with the nuke bullshit. Lil Kim might want to think about what his next speech should be.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  15. #60
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    I recently came across one of the best analysis I've seen about the ability of the DPRK to follow through on their frequent boasts to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire". I've included an excerpt to get you started, but I highly recommend giving the whole thing a read.

    http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-...c-and-reality/

    “Mind the gap between rhetoric and reality”
    by Roger Cavazos

    North Korea occasionally threatens to “turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire”. The South Korean, U.S. and other international media often relay this statement, amplifying its effect. But can North Korea really do this? Does it matter if they can? The short answer is they can’t; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime. Therefore, it doesn’t matter whether they can do it directly since they have the capability to ignite a sequence of events leading to widespread destruction and likely regime change in Pyongyang. Previous Nuclear Weapon Free Zones have usually required about three decades to implement after discussions started during periods of stasis. Therefore, this is a period of stasis in which to explore confidence building measures and possibly something as radical as a Korea Japan Nuclear Weapon Free Zone.

    If the North Korean Peoples Army (KPA) were to start a doctrinal, conventional artillery barrage focused on South Korean forces, we could expect to see around three thousand casualties in the first few minutes, but the casualty rate would quickly drop as the surprise wears off and counter-battery fires slow down the North Korean rates of fire. If the KPA were to engage Seoul in a primarily counter-value fashion by firing into Seoul instead of primarily aiming at military targets, there would likely be around thirty-thousand casualties in a short amount of time. Statistically speaking, almost eight-hundred of those casualties would be foreigners given Seoul’s international demographic. Chinese make up almost seventy percent of foreigners in Seoul and its northern environs which means KPA might also kill six-hundred Chinese diplomats, multi-national corporation leaders, and ranking cadre children who are students in Seoul. Horrible, but nothing approaching “millions”. Three primary factors and three secondary factors account for the huge discrepancy between rhetoric and reality:

    Three Primary Factors


    1. Range – Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;

    2. Numbers – Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA can’t emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Korea’s expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;

    3. Protection – Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply won’t be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.

    Three Secondary Factors

    1. Dud rate – the only numbers available—to the DPRK as well as the rest of the world—indicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. It’s like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.

    2. Counter-battery fires – shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.

    3. Logistics – in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.
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