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Saudi Arabia breaks off ties with Iran after al-Nimr execution

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  • #16
    Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    More importantly, such a war isn't likely to end anytime soon. It's nice to fantasize that the Middle East could just go up in flames for a year or two in the absence of any external intervention, work out all their tensions and problems, and establishing a new and stable regional order.

    For such a thing to occur however, there need to be powers involved that are strong enough to win decisively in order to avoid a Syria situation that just keeps grinding on endlessly as it devolves into tribal warlords and city states. Neither the KSA nor Iran possess the wherewithal to pull off a decisive strategic victory, thus their heavy investment into proxies.

    As bad as the American Civil war was, can you imagine the carnage if the Confederates had been a closer match for the Union? It might have raged for 14+ years instead of 4, and may not have settled the issue even then!
    Imagine? I'm counting on it.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by gunnut View Post
      A lot of oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. The first thing Iranians will do if a war breaks out is to lob missiles at passing oil tankers. Which has happened in the late 1980s. Who would want to drive a tanker through that region if it happens? Gulf states would not be able to sell their oil. Their revenue goes down. Oil price goes up due to decreased supplies. World economy experiences a "disruption."

      I'm all for sitting back and watching the show. But this war might cost me in terms of a stock market decline.

      Whys it so cheap right now then? half the middle east and Libya are burning to the ground.

      I just don't think we need to cuddle up so close to the Saudis just to protect the oil supply - They want to sell it as badly as we want to buy it. Surely the straight of Hormuz can be secured without allowing them to build these Madrassas all over the world to preach their vile form of Islam. Have you ever seen the children books they send to Britian and no doubt other places? They depict Jews drinking Palestinian blood and promote hatred all over the world.

      Far worse than Iran in my opinion.




      Indeed, we'd be looking at Tanker War II.

      Zara, the problem is that oil is bought and sold on the world market. Regardless of where one gets their oil geographically, the price will rise or fall on a planet-wide basis.
      Couldn't they just send it out of Aquaba in Jordan like they did in the Tanker war you linked to?
      Last edited by zara; 07 Jan 16,, 12:23.

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      • #18
        Iran accuses Saudis of bombing embassy in Yemen

        Iran has accused Saudi-led coalition warplanes of bombing its embassy in Yemen's capital Sanaa, state media say.

        Broadcaster Irinn said missiles had struck the embassy, causing damage.

        Sanaa residents said there were dozens of air strikes on Thursday morning by the coalition, which is battling the Houthi rebel movement.

        Riyadh, which is embroiled in a diplomatic row with Iran over the execution of a Shia cleric, accuses Tehran of supporting the Houthis.
        http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35251917

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        • #19
          Originally posted by zara View Post
          Whys it so cheap right now then? half the middle east and Libya are burning to the ground.

          I just don't think we need to cuddle up so close to the Saudis just to protect the oil supply - They want to sell it as badly as we want to buy it. Surely the straight of Hormuz can be secured without allowing them to build these Madrassas all over the world to preach their vile form of Islam. Have you ever seen the children books they send to Britian and no doubt other places? They depict Jews drinking Palestinian blood and promote hatred all over the world.

          Far worse than Iran in my opinion.
          Clearly oil prices are not as tied to trouble in the middle east as much anymore, the markets are not as responsive as they used to be. Oil is more diversified, think shale, and other forms of energy are becoming more important. And as you said, it tends to keep flowing, besides there is currently more oil in than the global economy can handle and nobody will agree to reduce the amount out of the ground.

          Right or wrong, the US had historical reasons for dealing with the Sauidis in a certain way that are not as relevant today, so agree with you on that. Despite that not sure how much there is to be gained by favouring the stick over the carrot. Quietly behind the scenes, a soft approach may be the best way for the US to influence the situation positively. Its easy to take the position of your assholes, might not be the most productive. It may also be easy to over estimate americas influence on the situation, if they weigh in too heavy, that may become more apparent, and quickly.

          Far worse than Iran in my opinion.
          These days, maybe, but I wouldnt be reorienting alliances quickly to give them a cuddle. This takes on a sunnia-shia dimension for many, best to distance oneself from such a dispute.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by tantalus View Post

            Right or wrong, the US had historical reasons for dealing with the Sauidis in a certain way that are not as relevant today, so agree with you on that. Despite that not sure how much there is to be gained by favouring the stick over the carrot. Quietly behind the scenes, a soft approach may be the best way for the US to influence the situation positively. Its easy to take the position of your assholes, might not be the most productive. It may also be easy to over estimate americas influence on the situation, if they weigh in too heavy, that may become more apparent, and quickly .
            Do we have any influence at all? They wont take any refugees from Syria, they continue to support Islamist groups within Syria and peddle violent ideology around the world. We cant seem to influence OPEC deals and we cant get them to change any of their medieval laws towards women or Jews.
            I just don't think wed lose anything by cutting off ties. Maybe lucrative Arms deals, but I think they're pretty indefensible anyway the way they are treating Yemen.

            These days, maybe, but I wouldnt be reorienting alliances quickly to give them a cuddle. This takes on a sunnia-shia dimension for many, best to distance oneself from such a dispute.
            Oh I wasn't advocating a closer relationship with Iran! Just think we should stay well clear of this religious civil war that will no doubt last longer than our lifetimes. Probably longer than our childrens lifetimes too.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by zara View Post
              Do we have any influence at all? They wont take any refugees from Syria, they continue to support Islamist groups within Syria and peddle violent ideology around the world. We cant seem to influence OPEC deals and we cant get them to change any of their medieval laws towards women or Jews.
              I just don't think wed lose anything by cutting off ties. Maybe lucrative Arms deals, but I think they're pretty indefensible anyway the way they are treating Yemen.
              I cant say what influence there is, but given US economic and military might, and close diplomatic, military and trade ties over last couple of decades, its hard to imagine there are not a lot of ways that the US can influence the saudis. Over all I imagine the saudi royal family probably want to improve their reputation on the world stage, as do Iran currently, not go the way of north Korea. You can be a lot stronger moving forward with the help of the US and western nations.

              It's too simplistic to cut ties with them. You lose many ways you can influence the situation behind the scenes, for some short term satisfaction and a sound bite. Work with countries, and encourage them to reform. Alienate them, and things are likely to get worse, and encourage them to with business with the likes of Russia and the Chinese, who keep their opinions to themselves.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                It's too simplistic to cut ties with them. You lose many ways you can influence the situation behind the scenes, for some short term satisfaction and a sound bite. Work with countries, and encourage them to reform. Alienate them, and things are likely to get worse, and encourage them to with business with the likes of Russia and the Chinese, who keep their opinions to themselves.
                Cutting ties with apartheid South Africa worked didn't it?

                I'm sorry but I just don't see any evidence that we have any influence on them. If its 'behind the scenes' its not accomplishing much if anything. We cant even stop them teaching British Muslim children (In British Schools!) to hate Jews. Its outrageous! They are completely barbaric.
                They are entirely resistant to world opinion because our support gives them legitimacy.

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                • #23
                  I remember the 60s and 70s when we had 1000s marching the streets demanding we unilaterally dismantle our own nuclear arsenals without asking Moscow to do the same thing.
                  Chimo

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by zara View Post
                    Cutting ties with apartheid South Africa worked didn't it?
                    .
                    South Africa had a majority ruled by a minority of a different race. There's no such distinction in Arabia except on a tribal level, and Syria represents what happens when they go against each other.
                    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                    Leibniz

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                      South Africa had a majority ruled by a minority of a different race. There's no such distinction in Arabia except on a tribal level, and Syria represents what happens when they go against each other.
                      Sorry about the tangent here....

                      Ever noticed that the left wants minorities to succeed. But when they do, like in South Africa, it's also racist. There's no pleasing them.
                      "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by zara View Post
                        Cutting ties with apartheid South Africa worked didn't it?
                        It didn't. Apartheid South Africa was still the largest, most developed and successful country on the continent.

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                        • #27
                          Irrespective of oil, this thing is a clusterfuck waiting to happen. A pan Arabia/Persia/Nth and Central Africa 'religious' war between Sunni & Shia. Millions of deaths. Tens if not hundreds of millions of refugees. The Suez Canal closed. A very real possibility of nuclear exchanges. Clusterfuck of immense proportions.
                          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                          Leibniz

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                          • #28
                            it is a fantasy to think that a middle eastern war will cause a giant price spike.
                            That ship has sailed. That was a pre-shale go-go BRIC era possibility .. but no more.

                            No doubt Brent and WTI are undershooting of what they should be (whatever that is); but make no mistake, it is buyer market for the medium term

                            As far as Saudi' getting excited and growing a pair .. Well who cares they always have Uncle Sam applauding them for triggering or escalating conflicts.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by S2 View Post

                              The 5th Fleet is in Bahrain to assure no Iranian invasion of the GCC or Saudi Arabia. None of us need such assurance WRT to an invasion of Iran by the GCC and/or Saudi Arabia. So long as our fleet remains, however one-sided it appears, all sides can be assured of safely shipping their oil and everybody else can be assured of free and unfettered access to market-priced oil.
                              .
                              Agree that the 5th is playing stabilizing force v-a-v energy supplies coming out of the Gulf

                              But do you REALLY believe that Iran can take on KSA and their minions (invasion as you say)
                              sounds like it is other way around with all the weaponnery that KSA and UAE and others operate

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by xerxes View Post
                                Agree that the 5th is playing stabilizing force v-a-v energy supplies coming out of the Gulf

                                But do you REALLY believe that Iran can take on KSA and their minions (invasion as you say)
                                sounds like it is other way around with all the weaponnery that KSA and UAE and others operate
                                For all the discrepancy in tech levels so far the Iranians and their minions have proven competent so far whereas Saudi and co has proven far less effective.
                                The best part of repentance is the sin

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