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  • Armed Confrontation Between China and India

    The China-India relationship is remarkably stable in many ways. Bilateral summits and new multilateral groupings often bring the two Asian giants together in common cause. Both sides clearly appreciate the value of peace as a way to expand their trade and investment ties and to enable a continued focus on economic development at home. Yet important differences and suspicions persist; some date back to 1962, when India lost a short but decisive war to China. Others relate to the rising global ambitions, military capabilities, and political and economic influence of these two Asian neighbors.

    Although Beijing and New Delhi have repeatedly demonstrated a mutual desire to prevent conflict and mitigate tensions when they arise and have avoided a serious violent clash since 1967, the potential for their relationship to deteriorate is ever present. No single issue or crisis is likely to produce this result. However, a series of disputes in quick succession or their simultaneous emergence could lead to an armed confrontation worse than any since the 1960s. A border clash could inflict dozens of casualties, jolt global markets, hurt regional economic growth, and undermine cooperative China-India efforts on regional and global issues of concern to the United States, including counterterrorism and counterpiracy, even if both sides managed to avoid a more serious military escalation.

    The United States has a major interest in preventing armed confrontation between China and India. If preventive efforts fail, however, U.S. policymakers should work to limit the immediate costs of a confrontation and to avoid unnecessary new points of friction with Beijing. But in doing so they should seek to resolve the crisis on terms that favor a closer U.S.-India partnership.
    Full article @ CFR

    Long article, but the gist is US support for India incase of an armed conflict with China, to the extent of militarily siding with India.

    Preventive option - sale of US hi-tech weapons to India. Putting pressure on Pak to clamp down on LeT, HM, and initiate a triparty forum including US/China/India to resolve the LAC issue.
    Last edited by Oracle; 19 Nov 15,, 15:06.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  • #2
    A single man's opinion that has zero evidence from American policy makers. American pressure on Pakistan to date has not stopped artillery duels with India.
    Chimo

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    • #3
      The american hope is that both india and china use themselves up.

      BUT

      Pakistan would not miss this opportunity and then, neither would russia. This would force the americans to come into the picture. Another 1971 rewind. The old question again:

      the US administration asked China to move against India and the Chinese asked the question, "What happens if the Soviet Union moved against China?"
      For the americans, their main target is russia. To get to russia, they'll first need to check india which they do through a china-pak combo.
      Last edited by anil; 19 Nov 15,, 16:57.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by anil View Post
        The american hope is that both india and china use themselves up.

        BUT

        Pakistan would not miss this opportunity and then, neither would russia. This would force the americans to come into the picture. Another 1971 rewind. The old question again:



        For the americans, their main target is russia. To get to russia, they'll first need to check india which they do through a china-pak combo.
        A question to the sane people here - are sentiments like this common in India? Do people really believe that the US wants a 'weakened' India? (keeping in mind its not the 60s or 70s). Do people really think that it is necessary to 'check India' in order to deal with Russia?

        Obviously I'm not trying to gauge the worth of these assertions, just how much kool aid is being drunk in India.
        sigpic

        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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        • #5
          Originally posted by anil View Post
          The american hope is that both india and china use themselves up.
          I think the American hope is that India catches up to and serves as a counterweight to China. If China and India are closely matched economically and militarily, America benefits from two great trading partners with huge markets, and the ability to regulate the balance of power if one side decides to become expansionist.

          If India and China "use themselves up" then America loses out on great economic trade opportunities and suffers along with everyone else as the world economy takes a huge hit and massive numbers of refugees flood the rest of the world. Nobody wants that.

          Originally posted by anil View Post
          For the americans, their main target is russia. To get to russia, they'll first need to check india which they do through a china-pak combo.
          Why does the US need to check India today? Do you really see India going to war against the West if the Russians and Americans get into a tussle?

          Comment


          • #6
            @bf
            I'm the last person to peddle CT's

            @steve
            Once the dollar dies, all talks about trading with the largest economies and right of passage goes out the window. The security investments in SCS and indian ocean will have no return.
            Last edited by anil; 20 Nov 15,, 04:43.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
              A question to the sane people here - are sentiments like this common in India? Do people really believe that the US wants a 'weakened' India? (keeping in mind its not the 60s or 70s). Do people really think that it is necessary to 'check India' in order to deal with Russia?

              Obviously I'm not trying to gauge the worth of these assertions, just how much kool aid is being drunk in India.
              I thought you knew, you have engaged with him in the Canada thread. But to let you know, out of 1.23 billion, maybe a few hundreds or some 1000s.

              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              A single man's opinion that has zero evidence from American policy makers. American pressure on Pakistan to date has not stopped artillery duels with India.
              So all these US think tanks are basically useless to the point that their research and opinion aren't even considered by the USG? It's all about global economy and bigger markets. Obama doesn't run the US, giant business houses do having funding his election.
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                So all these US think tanks are basically useless to the point that their research and opinion aren't even considered by the USG? It's all about global economy and bigger markets. Obama doesn't run the US, giant business houses do having funding his election.
                Think tanks jobs to offer Cover Your Ass explanations. Not to make policy.

                IE, I made a wrong decision but look, this prestigious think tank also said I made the best decision possible.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by anil View Post
                  @steve
                  Once the dollar dies, all talks about trading with the largest economies and right of passage goes out the window. The security investments in SCS and indian ocean will have no return.
                  The legions ain't returning to Rome anytime soon.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    Think tanks jobs to offer Cover Your Ass explanations. Not to make policy.

                    IE, I made a wrong decision but look, this prestigious think tank also said I made the best decision possible.
                    I was under the impression big business houses run governments around the world. What's your take?
                    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by anil View Post
                      Once the dollar dies, all talks about trading with the largest economies and right of passage goes out the window. The security investments in SCS and indian ocean will have no return.
                      "Once the dollar dies" seems like a bit of a leap. The latest round of world recessions certainly seems to indicate that the dollar is still the prefered hedge against instability. Foreign investors have poured all kinds of money into US bonds despite an interest rate that is practically nothing. Frankly, nobody else has the kind of geopolitical security the US enjoys.

                      I think the US security investments in the Indian Ocean and SCS have less to do with a return on investment (although freedom of navigation is undoubtedly important) than with power projection to reassure regional allies and maintain the ability to put the screws to anyone that gets overly aggressive. For example, the ability for the USN to quickly close the Straits of Malacca to anyone we don't want getting through gives quite a bit of leverage over China who is so dependant on imports from the Persian Gulf and their own exports to keep their economy chugging along.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by anil View Post
                        @bf
                        I'm the last person to peddle CT's

                        @steve
                        Once the dollar dies, all talks about trading with the largest economies and right of passage goes out the window. The security investments in SCS and indian ocean will have no return.
                        And you are no CT? LMAO! US is an illegitimate civilization, Canada has no culture. You have set a record of CTs in WAB. Does Sterling die according to your future insights? I might need to check out soon then.
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                          I was under the impression big business houses run governments around the world. What's your take?
                          When was the last time that Putin obeyed Bill Gates?
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Well acc. to the Chinese an armed confrontation would be this:

                            PLA could blockade India with just 10 submarines: Sina

                            The People's Liberation Army Navy could block India's western and eastern coasts with just 10 submarines in the event of conflict in the Indian Ocean, according to the Sina Military Network website on June 2.

                            An article published last year claimed that a single attack submarine deployed to the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea could threaten the entire operations of the Indian Navy. It could even challenge the INS Vikramaditya, the former Russian aircraft carrier commissioned in 2013. This is a primary mission why India decided to build two additional carriers with the assistance of the United States, the piece said.

                            With the Indian Navy also adding more submarines to its fleet, the Sina Military Network concluded that the PLA's three Type 091 Han-class, four Type 093 Shang-class and two Type 095 attack submarines are not sufficient for a total blockade of the subcontinent. However, it said it would not be necessary for the PLA Navy to block the country's southern waters that are closer to the coast of Africa. In this case, about 10 attack submarines could suffice.

                            India has eight primary naval bases but only the three located in Mumbai, Karwar and Visakhapatnam are used for actual military operations. This being the case, the article said that even six nuclear-powered attack submarines are needed to block India's major naval bases completely with two covering each base.
                            Easy peasy. I don't know whether Sina Military netowrk can be called a think-tank though.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
                              "Once the dollar dies" seems like a bit of a leap.
                              The trade currency will shift. It is the next logical step for the supplier(market).

                              Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
                              I think the US security investments in the Indian Ocean and SCS have less to do with a return on investment (although freedom of navigation is undoubtedly important) than with power projection to reassure regional allies and maintain the ability to put the screws to anyone that gets overly aggressive.
                              Its all downhill after you loose an economic war
                              Last edited by anil; 21 Nov 15,, 18:37.

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