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Thread: WWII what-ifs

  1. #601
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The Soiets had several armies in the right place, they did die and did not achieve much. Had Hitler not been fixated on numbers and thus diverted the panzers to bag a huge but immobile army near Kiev he would have taken Lenningrad and Moscow.
    Those armies achieved a lot. They distracted Hitler and saved Moscow.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Those armies achieved a lot. They distracted Hitler and saved Moscow.
    Yup, had the corporal listened to his generals the Germans had a real shot at winning in 41. If the USSR loses Lenningrad and Moscow the whole strategic picture changes.

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    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Yup, had the corporal listened to his generals the Germans had a real shot at winning in 41. If the USSR loses Lenningrad and Moscow the whole strategic picture changes.
    It might not look good for the Red Army but I'd figure Stalin would just move east and continue the fight from there. Meanwhile the Germans would get sucked deeper and deeper into Russia. They not only had to deal with the Red Army, they had to deal with more and more partisans and spend resources on occupation.

    This same scenario played out in China when Chiang moved east (oops I mean west) and suckered the Japanese deeper into China. Japanese were better equipped but China had more men to throw at them. Japanese not only had to deal with the Nationalist army, they had to deal with occupying conquered land and the partisans.

    The overall picture doesn't change much. Germans would punch themselves out and then the Red Army would attack from east of the Urals.
    Last edited by gunnut; 07 Apr 16, at 22:43.
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    The overall picture doesn't change much. Germans would punch themselves out and then the Red Army would attack from east of the Urals.
    big disadvantages to doing so, though. Stalin could have very well been assassinated had Moscow been lost.

    moreover Moscow was a huge logistics/industrial hub for the Russians. they were desperately trying to shift things out to their back up capital at Kuibyshev until the Siberian troops saved their bacon.

    you're probably looking at the war being extended at LEAST an extra six months and probably anywhere from half a million to another million Soviet dead...and that's the optimistic scenario.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    but also 30% of some very critical areas.

    BTW, the importance of lend-lease went back to 1941, not just from 1943 (although that is when it significantly ramped up). for instance, 30-40% of USSR tank strength defending Moscow in Dec 1941 were british lend-lease tanks.
    http://www.historynet.com/did-russia...he-germans.htm

    Overstated. At less than 300 tanks, it was the Soviet infanteer that won the day, not British MATILDA or Canadian VALENTINE.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    It might not look good for the Red Army but I'd figure Stalin would just move east and continue the fight from there. Meanwhile the Germans would get sucked deeper and deeper into Russia. They not only had to deal with the Red Army, they had to deal with more and more partisans and spend resources on occupation.

    This same scenario played out in China when Chiang moved east (oops I mean west) and suckered the Japanese deeper into China. Japanese were better equipped but China had more men to throw at them. Japanese not only had to deal with the Nationalist army, they had to deal with occupying conquered land and the partisans.

    The overall picture doesn't change much. Germans would punch themselves out and then the Red Army would attack from east of the Urals.
    Without Lenningrad and Moscow the Soviet warmaking network is well and truly borked. Moscow in 1941 was the equivalent of NYC, DC, Detroit and the Panama Canal all rolled into one for the US. It was the socio-political-industrial-transportation center of the Soviet universe. Without Moscow any attacks in Russia have to come out of the Gorky Oblast... one rail line and one bridge to support an army big enough to beat Armygroup Mitte, not gonna happen.

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    Ok, all this did was to shift Stalingrad to Moscow. If the Germans must take Moscow, then Moscow must be defended and they had more soldiers and an excellent General in Chuikov and a LOC that would be damned impossible to cut.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Ok, all this did was to shift Stalingrad to Moscow. If the Germans must take Moscow, then Moscow must be defended and they had more soldiers and an excellent General in Chuikov.
    If Hitler had not become distracted by Kiev, he wouldn't have been able to stop them. The Siberian divisions had not really begun to move yet and the last of the Soviet forces in the West were encircled at Lenningrad or unable to move from Kiev. The road to Moscow was open with nary a single red army solider between the panzers and victory.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    If Hitler had not become distracted by Kiev, he wouldn't have been able to stop them.
    Then you let your favourite Soviet General, Vatutin, numeric superiority against a weakened German LOC.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Then you let your favourite Soviet General, Vatutin, numeric superiority against a weakened German LOC.
    Vatutin was in Leningrad, his troops didn't have the mobility to exploit German weakness, he tried and got mauled. He came closer than anyone else in 41/42, caused Mainstein to pause which likely saved Lenningrad but the terrain, poor troop quality and poor equipment meant he just couldn't do it.

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    But Manstein isn't at Leningrad. He's at Moscow, along with the soldiers that stopped Vatutin in the first place.
    Chimo

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    Got lost here. What's the story?
    Last edited by Doktor; 08 Apr 16, at 07:25.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    But Manstein isn't at Leningrad. He's at Moscow, along with the soldiers that stopped Vatutin in the first place.
    Manstein was commander of the LVI (56th) Panzer corps attached to Armygroup Nord under Von Leeb. Vatutin stopped him at Leningrad. By October 41 the maneuver units of the Red Army in the west were gone. All they had left was primarily infantry, either encircled in Leningrad or unable to influence the flow of events near Kiev. The big group in front of Moscow had gone in the bag in August 1941 when they got trapped at Smolensk. The last tank formations the Red Army had until the Siberians moved west was out of Gorky/Novgorod and they attacked and blunted Manstein at Leningrad but were left shattered. Had Hitler not gone after Kiev, Moscow was essentially defenseless.

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    Not so fast

    Battle of Kiev (1941) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    However, David Glantz argued that had Operation Typhoon been launched in September, it would have met greater resistance due to Soviet forces not having been weakened by their offensives east of Smolensk. The offensive would have also been launched with an extended right flank.[20] Glantz also claims that regardless of the final position of German Troops when winter came, they would have still faced a counteroffensive by the 10 reserve armies raised by the Soviets toward the end of the year. If Kiev had not been taken before the Battle of Moscow, the entire operation would have ended in utter disaster for the Germans.[20][21][22]
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    but also 30% of some very critical areas.
    http://www.historynet.com/did-russia...he-germans.htm

    It did not even reached that until after Stalingrad. Reading the numbers, British and Canadian LL was less than 6 percent of the Soviet output at the time. Canada gave 1400+ VALENTINE to the USSR during the entire war. The Soviets lost that much and replaced that much in a month.
    Chimo

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