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Thread: Pentagon Fears Itís Not Ready for a War With Putin

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    IMHO, the only answer to that question should be "A Russian invasion of a NATO member".

    At this point, only Comrade Putin appears adventurous enough (read: "stupid enough") to make that happen.
    Hmm...

    Few places come to mind, but I believe those will be proxy wars.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  2. #17

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    "...For example, Eastern Europe has a different gauge railroad than Western Europe does so moving supplies is more difficult. So we are learning great lessons like that”

    Who's this nitwit again?

    Ummm...seems that's a lesson well-learned from the German Rail Administration during Barbarossa. Laid some serious amounts of re-gauged track throughout the war in the east.

    Pretty common knowledge at this point and seriously diminishes, IMV, the quality of this "study".
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
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  3. #18
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Don't know,sir.There are always new study that find water being wet a new thing.
    Especially in a military-bureaucratic culture that is obsessed with ''studies''.

    The operational implications of these findings are nil.Only the 3 Baltic states have the Russian gauge.It's true there are 700km from the Polish border to Narva,in a straight line,but if there are any manuever operations they'd take place at a shorter distance,mostly.Keeping 10 bde's supplied for a 2-3 weeks at most is well within our reach.
    In the S it may be about 200 km,from our border to Nistru,which also has no extraordinary need for railways.

    Frankly speaking,the civilian traffic these days that can be converted to military use is more than enough.
    Local resources can be used as well .Food can be taken completely from the natives.Fuel,at least in part.Only ammo and spare parts need to be fully brought in from the West.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  4. #19

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    Mihais,

    Rail is more than a logistical conduit. From the American Civil War through the eastern campaigns during W.W.II rail was the transportation mode of choice for operational maneuver and permitted the rapid re-deployment of huge numbers of troops (and heavy tracked vehicles). Both advantageous from an operational perspective enabling inter and intra-theatre re-deployment and absolutely critical from a maintenance POV concerning armored units arriving fit to fight.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Sir,that's not a concern in this case.Heavy units will disembarlk on the Polish frontier and carry on by themselves.Any operations in the Baltic states will be high intensity,high tempo,with high losses in a short time as well.
    It makes no sense to try to go further than the Polish border,for at least 2 reasons.One is that there won't be time to waste changing the gauge.The other is that it won't be advised to disembark heavy forces under the fire of the Russian advanced elements.

    As for armored units,they advanced 500km through the desert.They'll be fit enough .

    10 bde's may be massive to the current mindset,but by historical standards we're talking about puny forces.On both sides.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  6. #21

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    "...As for armored units,they advanced 500km through the desert.They'll be fit enough ."

    Advancing 500 km through the desert (and the enemy) is the point. Saving track and engine wear for when it matters. Also explains why those tanks didn't roadmarch from Dammon to Hafez Al Batin and their assembly areas.

    Forces will assemble as far forward as tactically prudent. It may only be the German/Polish frontier should we be surprised. It may, however, be possible that we're able to assemble further forward than you anticipate.

    I hope we plan and provide for all that's practical should we need to actively defend the east.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  7. #22
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    Obviously I don't know the scope of the 'table top exercise' but the Polish road and rail system is good to the eastern border, nearly all the Polish roads have been upgraded and the rail system is narrow gauge. But I think this is the point of the NATO 'forward presence' plan that Gen Breedlove is overseeing. I would certainly favour a permanent presence with the logistical base to support it in Poland but that is for others to decide. The real problem about any defence of the Baltics it would seem to me is Kaliningrad. Also it is worth considering the current Moscow request for a new airbase in Belarus - which so far Lukashenka has not given in to when considering any defence of the Baltics. It may be worth doing a deal with Lukashenka possibly.

    In general though I think this 'table top exercise' has probably over estimated the Muscovite troops. Ukraine wasn't in any way ready for them last year but can defeat them; the Poles would rip them apart in short order and the Romanians would gobble up Trandniestria within a week and look for more.

  8. #23
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Erm, be it as it is, do note that the Ruskies are not officially on a war foot or present in Ukraine. No disrespect here, but Poland or Romania alone would be wiped out by sheer Russian quality, which is the quantity. Of course we can debate this till the cows, since this is all purely hypothetical.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    There is no quantity.Their army is an expeditionary force,good to fight Islamists,an enemy like Georgia or delay a chinese invasion until nukes start raining.
    What they can do in Ukraine is probably their best.They fight in their own land,they have unassailable LOC's,the enemy is still divided and only one in 50 is probably doing anything for the war effort, they have a degree of intel that can't be compared with whatever they have in Warsaw or Bucharest .
    Any battle against a NATO army will mean as much destruction in a week as they had in A-stan in a decade.Even if they are victorious,there will be no one left to exploit it.
    Yeah,them alone vs us alone in a fight to the death,they'll probably win.But since nobody is alone nor ever was,such a victory will mean a predator alone in the jungle,with broken teeth and paws.Even a broken paw is deadly.Hence,detterence.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  10. #25
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    For the first half, they do not use their strengths in full force. No AF, no tanks, no columns, no engineers.
    For the second half, I agree.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    AF excepted,they use everything.And there is another problem.The Russians are in no mood to die.If they don't want to die liberating their brothers from the fscist yoke,they won't die on an even larger scale for.. well,nothing.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Thing is they are not there. If they were there, there would have been posters, movies, radio... All the media would have call in one voice that this is the second patriotic war in 100 years...
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  13. #28
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Yes and no.For a start you have protests against the war and the deployment of their troops.Not many,but there are.Second,given the amount of fascism genociding the peaceful people of Donbas,one would expect the people of all Russia's to be demanding something to be done.We have instead a meager flow of volunteers.The Russians are even less willing to fight and die than the Ukrainians.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  14. #29
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    The drums are silent, Russia is not at stake. Why would they be willing to die? OTOH, Ukraine is on a verge of dissolution.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    The drums are silent, Russia is not at stake. Why would they be willing to die? OTOH, Ukraine is on a verge of dissolution.
    "In two week we could be in Kyiv."

    "Some chicken... some neck."

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