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  • The Colonel has a point.
    But I disagree about the Germans.They won't fight the Russians in Poland,let alone in Belarus.Or not seriously,at least.More likely they will commit symbolic forces .Outright betrayal is not impossible.

    I also suspect the Russian main effort isn't in the North,but South.Here's why.Russian opportunities to break NATO do not mean attacking strength.In the South there are weaker and less willing NATO members.Hungary is a double agent.Bulgaria is in Russia's pockett.They can make them or break them almost at will.Turkey is an enemy of Russia,but a rather dubious NATO member of late.Greece is a friend of Russia,while Serbia needs no further explanation.All these nations can be influenced or controlled by Russia via soft power.
    The really hostile nations are Poland,the Baltics in the North and Romania in South.But Romania is both only half as powerful as Poland and surrounded by unreliable allies.
    In the North there is both greater strength and fewer prizes.In the South there is acces to the ME,encirclement of Turkey,discrediting NATO and further isolation of the remaining hostile nations of the East.
    Moreso,controlling the South gives them influence on the energy routes from both ME and Central Asia and makes Western inroads into the Stans futile.

    So,as personal opinion,I see the fuss about the Baltic states as playing a bit in the hands of Russian maskirovka.
    Military build-up in the N is of course good.But if I were to bet,I'd say we won't face a Russian invasion in the N,or even subversive wars Ukraine style.
    I also disagree a bit about US.The US won't die massively regardless of the type of war.But US has invaluable force multipliers.The cavalry is engaged in dog and pony shows.The ability of US is to lift a few Patriot btn's or a few C17's with PGM's .
    As the Colonel said,is not the WW3 of past.The stakes are a bit lower.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
      The Colonel has a point.
      But I disagree about the Germans.They won't fight the Russians in Poland,let alone in Belarus.Or not seriously,at least.More likely they will commit symbolic forces .Outright betrayal is not impossible.
      I wasn't discussing Bonn's willingness to fight. I was stating that only the Germans could scare the Russians into not misbehaving. It's up to everybody else to convince the Germans to scare the Russians.
      Chimo

      Comment


      • So how about we add an additional rotational US brigade to the mix.

        Currently 1/3 ID is on an extended rotation in Romania and then Poland.

        Starting next FY a heavy brigade from CONUS will rotate in for a 9 month duration.

        What if we make it 2 brigade mission...but one can be a fires brigade or a light infantry brigade.

        We could also integrate the Army National Guard into the rotations. The Guard of 2016 is much more robust than the ARNG of 2001.

        Of course the issue is will and cost.

        If those can be overcome will this be sufficient?
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

        Comment


        • Mihas raised a point. A distraction in the Pacific where US attention is extremely focused and then, the Civil War scenario. Let's say the ethnic Russian populations in the Baltics started making a fuss and started demanding political rights well beyond their population size. The Baltic Governments started to crack down, hard, and fearing a fifth column started throwing anyone and everyone into jail, causing (legitimately or not) a real uprising amongst the ethnic population.

          Do the American brigades really want to get into the middle of that?
          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Mihas raised a point. A distraction in the Pacific where US attention is extremely focused and then, the Civil War scenario. Let's say the ethnic Russian populations in the Baltics started making a fuss and started demanding political rights well beyond their population size. The Baltic Governments started to crack down, hard, and fearing a fifth column started throwing anyone and everyone into jail, causing (legitimately or not) a real uprising amongst the ethnic population.

            Do the American brigades really want to get into the middle of that?
            Great point sir and again I did a poor job.

            I meant the additional support to bolster the Southern tier of NATO. Base one in Romania and the other in Poland (Drawsko Pomorskie would be an awesome choice. Was there in 2002 and it was Hohenfels back in the day.

            That gives NATO a broader coverage and allows an ability to pivot North or South.

            As to your scenario...I don't so that as a straight up military manner. The Baltic Security services has to work with internal issues.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
              As to your scenario...I don't so that as a straight up military manner. The Baltic Security services has to work with internal issues.
              Here's the problem. Mercenaries would start flooding the area. This was what was happening in Yugoslavia. Some even under foreign direction. There were 3 Iranian Revolutionary Guards Battalions in Bosnia fighting. Hence, the Little Green Men scenario. Do you march on Kaliningrad, ie start WWIII, because Russian mercs are in the Baltics?

              And can the POTUS make that decision while the Chinese are raising a ruckus? Or would he rather just say it the Baltics, handle your own security issues?

              The reason why I raised the Germans is that they know who's who and they know the ethnic Russians don't belong there.
              Chimo

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                For the Russians to be convinced that there will be war that they can't win. They need a foe who can't be distracted by events in the Pacific, who is strong enough to challenge and even overcome the Russians, who isn't leaving, and who don't give a damn about little green men.
                I quite agree...

                Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                But I disagree about the Germans.They won't fight the Russians in Poland,let alone in Belarus.Or not seriously,at least.More likely they will commit symbolic forces .Outright betrayal is not impossible.
                but I also share Mihai's apprehensions regarding our German allies; Merkel is commendable in many ways but she is not a 'forever' solution and we know what happened with Schroeder. The main guard against war in the North is preventing another Molotov - Ribbentrop type deal and is therefore vital to keep the Germans onside. Without the North the South is harder. I also share Mihai's apprehensions in the south. In this regard the recent Ukraine - Turkey Military Coop deal is welcome. See the recent Atlantic Council chat on the Black Sea area; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGLpzD79_8E . Without the North the South is a whole lot more problematical. I understand Romania will soon present plans for a 'Southern International Brigade' akin to LITPOLUKRBRIG with Polish and Ukrainian (and others it is hinted) taking part but based in Romania. Really of course we should 'pinch out' Transdniestria once and for all and (re)unite Moldova with Romania - since half of the Moldovan population have Romanian passports anyway. Plans for such an operation exist but are rejected at the political level.

                The obvious answer to the Colonels search for "a foe who can't be distracted by events in the Pacific, who is strong enough to challenge and even overcome the Russians, who isn't leaving, and who don't give a damn about little green men" is a strong CEE alliance (or 'Intermarium' as it called traditionally) with Ukraine, Finland and Sweden - and maybe Belarus - included. The Ukrainians and Poles are best at handling Belarus issues - Ukraine in particular has quite a friendly relationship with their mini dictator but as ever Lukashenka continues his 'shuffling'.

                On the Kalinin issue they seek to make the area an A2/AD 'fortress' thus closing the 'Suwalki gap' to NATO reinforcement to the Baltics, should they be needed. This is fine as long as Belarus will reject transit through it's territory but should problems - 'little green Spetznaz' etc - arise in the Baltics it is quite likely (according to some) that the 'Lukashenka shuffle' would end; Belarus does not recognise the Muscovite annexation of Crimea and continues to reject the proposed new Muscovite airbase on their turf - for obvious reasons. If Belarus even permits overflight or transit Kalinin becomes a liability long term rather than asset. We too can do access denial and the area then becomes isolated. Hence the suggestions of a 'march on Minsk'.

                Great points raised about vital issues which I am sure foreshadows the NATO meeting in Warsawa next month. Suppose you were representing your respective nations at Warsawa, what would you propose?

                Comment


                • It ain't going to happen. Poland with the Baltics and Ukraines and Belarus against Russia? I will bet on Russia.

                  NATO is the ONLY FORCE capable of destroying a Russian invasion. That means NATO airpower, ie, German airpower.

                  All of you! Get off your fantasies. Vis-a-vi Russia, the only power that counts is Germany.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • But Colonel, some do not trust them now and long term it is not a solution and only self reliance is - but this takes time which NATO (all included) must buy for us. I would repeat Mihais apprehensions but I am sure I do not need to. Would you trust the Krauts? I agree we must keep them onside but the 'march on Minsk' or even intruding on Belarus turf? I share Mihais apprehensions about this - where are the Italians and the Spanish etc? Even the Frogs are absent. Seriously the 'European Union' and NATO seem to be disunites rather than 'unions' or 'alliances'. Much of this is Muscovite work but it is also partly the lameness of the Obama administration in part, from the "red line" in Syria onward, though of course it goes back way beyond that; Georgia etc. Doing nothing encourages the aggressor.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      It ain't going to happen. Poland with the Baltics and Ukraines and Belarus against Russia? I will bet on Russia.

                      NATO is the ONLY FORCE capable of destroying a Russian invasion. That means NATO airpower, ie, German airpower.

                      All of you! Get off your fantasies. Vis-a-vi Russia, the only power that counts is Germany.

                      And on the political front, the German foreign Minister has accused NATO of warmongering. Source. BBC.
                      "They want to test our feelings.They want to know whether Muslims are extremists or not. Death to them and their newspapers."

                      Protester

                      Comment


                      • Then your job is to beg for German protection!

                        Unless you want an open war that you will lose. I can tell you this. Germany is not coming to your rescue if you start a war that they didn't want.
                        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 18 Jun 16,, 19:04.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • German minister criticises 'warmongering' Nato exercises - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36566422
                          "They want to test our feelings.They want to know whether Muslims are extremists or not. Death to them and their newspapers."

                          Protester

                          Comment


                          • Sir,German policies aren't exactly what is needed.Heck,even if they were,the German army of today isn't ready.The US and UK are today the only powers that have a vested interest in keeping E Europe away from Russian influence.
                            As for losing wars vs Russia,I beg to disagree.The Russians do not win on home soil vs a militia.Let
                            Their forces aren't increasing at a rapid pace.Their response to this crisis is reorganizing a few Div's by merging a few Bde's.A war against regular NATO armies supported by American force multipliers and local militia(that will flock in the hundreds of thousands,unlike Ukraine) is going to ruin them.
                            Those who know don't speak
                            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              Unless you want an open war that you will lose. I can tell you this. Germany is not coming to your rescue if you start a war that they didn't want.
                              Ukraine didn't or do you suppose Estonia will invade Muscovy? We merely wish to deter a war.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                                Ukraine didn't or do you suppose Estonia will invade Muscovy? We merely wish to deter a war.
                                Very EU-like Can't shut their mouths about minorities, while at home... That's one pretext for Moscow.
                                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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