Germany's Refugee Crisis

[Doktor]

... the "many of 500-600 per week" and "700 total right now" numbers don't exactly mesh. If one assumes six months, that'd be a grand total of 5%. Also, 500-600 per week are less than 15000 in the last six months. That'd be less than one migrant for 600 Swedes, where Germany has more like one migrant per 60 Germans. Getting ridiculous.

Sweden is doing that now because numbers are down. Germany is only getting 600-700 per week itself now (instead of 40000-50000 like a while ago), and German state refugee camps are down to only 20-40% filled.

Are you saying that you have cams ready for, erm, like 20% of the population?

Why are there homeless in Germany?

[kato]

Any homeless in Germany are living on the streets voluntarily - or for various reasons do not want to be registered for shelters. All towns have to set aside a certain amount of low-standard housing as shelter for homeless people, which usually ends up underused. As for homeless and refugees - well, most Germans would regard the 4.5 square meters we're affording each refugee... a bit cramped.

We currently have refugee camps at state level with capacities of broadly half a million people, of which about 70-80% are suitable for overwintering (most other sites were closed before winter); local districts currently house up to 900,000 people in addition to that in distributed sites at the moment. Total capacity is equal to around 1.7% of the population - or, for comparison, about two thirds of the entire population of Macedonia. If we get more we'll just expand again.

The only places that have problems are the two city states - Berlin in particular, being Germany's economic blackhole and having a not exactly pro-refugee government. There's been some voices - from Berlin, where else - to modify the distribution key to lower their intake, but the current distribution already massively underburdens them in comparison to other states.

Most districts have only just begun to setup - i.e. build - new permanent housing for refugees though. Many of the current district housing sites are e.g. converted commercial space or container housing; there's new light/cheap real housing being set up to replace that.
Many of the state camps instead are likely to be shut down by the end of this month to reduce current overcapacity; this is obviously done in such a way that they can be set up there or at other places within a few weeks again. If necessary - as has been done a couple times last year - a state will just rent some large building and set up up to a thousand cots in there until something better can be found. That's doable within less than a week without problems at any time.

The number of people living in the state camps should currently be somewhere around 150,000; there's no aggregated statistics on that. Most people in the state camps are not newly arrived refugees but instead people without much chances at asylum that we haven't deported or coaxed into leaving yet (about half of all Yugoslavs agree to leave for a couple hundred bucks with a multi-year entry ban, much cheaper than housing them till their asylum request is denied).
Newly arriving refugees are distributed through a number of levels; first comes emergency shelter near the border for a day or two, then transport to one of the state camps where they stay 2-8 weeks (1), then (if they're not from "safe countries") distribution to the districts that each have to take in a set number based on their population (2); finally, usually after asylum requests have been granted, distribution to municipalities within the districts and usually individual apartments.

(1) capacities of typically between 500 and 10,000 per site, often sharing your room with 200+ others (or, at least here in the South, living in converted US Army barracks).
(2) capacities of typically between 40 and 400 per site, usually set up with at most 10-20 people per apartment.

[tankie]

Ah well , refugees welcome huh .

Panic As Muslim Migrants March Through Hannover And Claim Germany For Allah.

Last week in the town of Hannover in Germany, Muslim migrants, no longer pretending to be “refugees”, marched through the city streets waving the black flag of ISIS and claiming the land for Allah. I don’t know how many times we have to say it – but – they are not refugees and they are not migrants.





They are Islamic jihadis who are acting en masse to claim Europe for Allah and Islam. They are not assimilating and they will not assimilate into the culture of their host nations. They will demand that you submit to the Sharia, and guess what? That’s exactly what’s happening. In England, it has already happened. If you ever wanted to know what it was like to watch the downfall of a major nation, you’re looking at it.

[tankie]

And this is Germany's answer , still she looks like a merkel clone , sour faced numnut , looks ecstatic huh ,

What ever happened to your national anthem ????, replace uber with unter , so much for women in charge . Kato , are you getting it yet .

[Officer of Engineers]

[ATTACH]41209[/ATTACH]

I agree. They should start conceal carry and practice enough to have a 3 inch grouping at the groin area.

[kato]

What ever happened to your national anthem ????, replace uber with unter

Uh, that verse you're referring to was declared not part of our national anthem in 1991 (and had already retroactively to 1952 been clarified to be not part of it by the German Supreme Court in 1990).
It was last part of the German national anthem in 1945, until yon occupying powers outlawed it. Remember that?

As for the Hanover thing, source? And by source I mean something that's not linked on Stormfront.

[tankie]

Uh, that verse you're referring to was declared not part of our national anthem in 1991 (and had already retroactively to 1952 been clarified to be not part of it by the German Supreme Court in 1990).
It was last part of the German national anthem in 1945, until yon occupying powers outlawed it. Remember that?

As for the Hanover thing, source? And by source I mean something that's not linked on Stormfront.

Nope i never knew about your nat anthem being tampered with ,maybe because i aint bothered , GOD SAVE THE QUEEN , ,,and nope , link as posted from another forum ,the mayor looks like a dachshund sucking a wasp ,how come merkel knows it , mayor of cologne knows it , everyone in the EU knows it , but you kato ?????? your bubble will burst eventually .

[kato]

Neither of my sisters have ever found any reason to carry. Not when they were teens, not today.

[tankie]

Neither of my sisters have ever found any reason to carry. Not when they were teens, not today.

Well before the tears start may i make a suggestion , get tooled up . Because its gonna get worse , much worse . Stay safe .

.

[drhuy]

And this is Germany's answer , still she looks like a merkel clone , sour faced numnut , looks ecstatic huh ,

What ever happened to your national anthem ????, replace uber with unter , so much for women in charge . Kato , are you getting it yet .

[ATTACH]41209[/ATTACH]

this woman could really use some hijab.

[tankie]

And these , Ivans ok tho lol .

[Repatriated Canuck]

Thats a dark view of history. While ethnic conflict is very common with a dozen going on at any given time, genocides are somewhat rarer. The right wing in Europe does present the refugee crisis in apocalyptic terms, but out of the 60 million or so refugees that are currently in the world, barely 2-3% have made their way to Europe. Even in the worst case projections for the next few years, the figure is not going to rise much above 5%. The countries with the largest number of refugees at the moment are Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan with a combined number of more than 5 million who are registered, the total numbers might be even more. Turkey and Jordan are relatively peaceful countries inspite of this.

So I don't have a lot of sympathy for Europe in this regard, especially given that it is much wealthier than Jordan or Pakistan, even though I agree that encouraging mass migration and asylum 'shopping' is very bad policy.

I know its an older post but had to respond.

I think genocide is more common than you think. We've even had it within our own country. My family history has Mi'kmaq in it. My tribal ancestors wiped out all the indians on PEI. Killed and enslaved the lot.

I doubt this one would not be the only one within our continent. I heard those Aztecs where pretty brutal too. That's just a start.


Pacific Islanders ate each other..... I bet at least one nation was wiped out during those wars.

[kato]

Switch of topic:

Since the beginning of March, the current crisis is no longer refugees. The crisis is the lack of refugees.

We're currently getting less refugees than at any time since the beginning of 2015. Intake in calendar week 13 - that's last week - was about 4604 refugees, at the beginning of 2015 it was 5413 per week. High point was about 78524 in calendar week 45, 2015.


(numbers are for Baden-Württemberg state; for Germany multiply by 7.7)

State refugee camps are working considerably under capacity now, a real problem given money has been invested into them; in Baden-Württemberg, by comparison to the beginning of the year, numbers of refugees in camps have fallen by 75%.

For those who clamor about all-male, all-youth refugees, here's the differentiation by age and sex for all (16858) asylum requests in Baden-Württemberg in the first quarter of 2016. It basically confirms what some claim, but not quite to the same extent. In case you're wondering, the tables (available here show a similar distribution throughout 2015).


(blue is male)

During 2015, Baden-Württemberg had 97,804 people applying for asylum. These consisted of:

- 47.65% / 46,604 Arabs (35869 Syrians, 10735 Iraqis)
- 18.07% / 17,676 South Asians (11676 Afghans, 3278 Pakistanis, 1961 Iranians, 570 Indians, 191 Sri Lankans)
- 17.45% / 17,067 Balkan Europeans (5759 Albanians, 5053 Kosovarians, 2726 Serbs, 2422 Macedonians, 1107 Bosnians)
- 10.45% / 10,222 Black Africans (4580 Gambians, 1945 Nigerians, 1941 Eritreans, 849 Somalis, 693 Cameroonians, 314 Togolese)
- 2.33% / 2,279 North Africans (1577 Algerians, 649 Tunisians, 53 Moroccans)
- 1.60% / 1,562 East Europeans (734 Georgians, 424 Turkish, 404 Russians)
- 0.50% / 487 East Asians (436 Chinese, 51 North Koreans)
- 1.95% / 1,907 other (1228 of undefined statehood, 591 other countries, 88 stateless)

During the first quarter of 2016, 16,919 applied for asylum (2392 of these in March). These consisted of:

- 57.20% / 9,677 Arabs (6847 Syrians, 2826 Iraqis, 4 Lebanese)
- 21.68% / 3,668 South Asians (2653 Afghans, 327 Pakistanis, 492 Iranians, 173 Indians, 23 Sri Lankans)
- 9.34% / 1,581 Black Africans (832 Gambians, 329 Nigerians, 144 Eritreans, 110 Somalis, 113 Cameroonians, 53 Togolese)
- 3.79% / 642 Balkan Europeans (142 Albanians, 126 Kosovarians, 194 Serbs, 70 Macedonians, 110 Bosnians)
- 2.40% / 406 East Europeans (150 Georgians, 197 Turkish, 59 Russians)
- 2.29% / 387 North Africans (253 Algerians, 117 Tunisians, 11 Moroccans, 6 Libyans)
- 0.51% / 86 East Asians (86 Chinese)
- 2.20% / 372 other (290 of undefined statehood, 73 other countries, 9 stateless)

(note for these numbers: The state only lists the Top 25 explicitly, as long as these are over 1 person. These do not really change much. In March 2016 only 23 countries had more than 1 person applying for asylum in the state)

The only real obvious change in numbers is with the Balkan Europeans due to declaring their area "safe states" and actively dissuading these from even applying for asylum. Their numbers went down 80% compared to last year, and their share was redistributed to the others almost equally.

Other than a lowering of overall numbers, there is no distinct change to the shares due to the closing of the Balkan route. This only becomes more visibly when only looking at the March 2016 numbers, where the share of Arabs among the above dropped considerably to only about 35%. Interestingly the overall share of South Asian applicants did not change in March at all, despite these - mostly Afghanis and Iranians - taking the same route.

[Doktor]

What's with som rumors that there are half a million not registered immigrants?

I guess this goes for all nationalities including those from here.

[kato]

The rumours are about the socalled "Easy Gap". Easy Gap is the hip word for the differences between registration in the socalled "Easy" system where police registers any "new arrivals" encountered, and the number of asylum requests filed with states. The Easy Gap is currently around 350,000 and at its high point three months ago was around 480,000. Obviously the press tends to use the largest number it can find.
It began "opening" last August when people were basically registered in Easy and then carted off to refugee camps where they had to wait to file their asylum request; by September it had reached 290,000 since the departments for asylum requests began assigning priorities (to certain nationalities).

The primary problem with Easy is that its numbers are unreliable though. There's literally tens of thousands of double and triple registrations in it, people who are registered at a border, then put on a train and registered again when they arrive due to miscommunications. The semi-official - not communicated - estimate is usually that to come at a serious estimate of arrivals, one has to reduce the Easy numbers by around 15% (i.e. at least 160,000 for 2015). This is roughly the same number that some international press has previously claimed "disappeared" or "went undercover" btw.
For the remainder, one can estimate that currently around 50,000 out of the Easy Gap are in state refugee camps and at least twice that number in municipal housing, waiting to file their asylum request.

There probably are in fact quite a number of immigrants who just went their merry way and are living in Germany illegally; but they're nowhere close to half a million, probably at most 50,000 - and given that Germany has always - for decades, literally - had at least half a million illegal residents with estimates ranging up to one million and an estimated "throughput" of 30,000 new illegal residents per year, they're more of a drop in the bucket.


For 2015, Easy registered:

- 428,468 Syrians
- 154,046 Afghans
- 121,662 Iraqis
- 69,462 Albanians
- 33,049 Kosovarians
- 285,207 other nationalities

The problem - when comparing to asylum requests - is that one always has to assume a few weeks difference; as an example: for 2015, the number of asylum requests from Kosovarians actually exceeded that of Kosovarians registered as arriving in Easy due to overhang from the previous winter. As a general delta estimate, one can assume that some 250,000 Syrians, 100,000 Afghanis, 50,000 Iraqis, 25,000 Albanians and 50,000 others arrived in 2015 were not yet able to file an asylum request by the end of the year (but have mostly been able to file one since then).

For the first quarter of 2016, the number of asylum requests exceeds that of new arrivals in Easy, hence the Easy gap is slowly closing again.

"Easy" is an abbreviation for "Erstverteilung der Asylbegehrenden" - "initial distribution of asylum seekers". Easy is not used for personalized data, but only to register in anonymized form: country of origin, number of people, gender, family status. Easy uses that data to distribute the person just registered to one of Germany's 16 states so police knows where to send them. Once arriving at the state camps, refugees are newly registered in a separate application run by the German Red Cross. Once they're registered in that one they're "trackable".