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Thread: Minimum wage

  1. #16
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    San Fran will raise minimum wage in the city to $15 by 2017. After that, it will be tied to LOCAL inflation rate.

    I cannot wait to see this train wreck.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    doubt there will be much, if any effect. with the enormous amounts of tech money flowing in over there, it'll be relatively easy for businesses to raise costs. SF already has a high cost of living but people are still swarming in.

    moreover by doing this, the people on the bottom getting that minimum wage will be able to spend more, increasing demand. it'll all wash out.

    by the way, SF's unemployment rate is 3.4%, so much for the progressive economic nightmare.
    Last edited by astralis; 01 Aug 15, at 01:05.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #18
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    doubt there will be much, if any effect. with the enormous amounts of tech money flowing in over there, it'll be relatively easy for businesses to raise costs. SF already has a high cost of living but people are still swarming in.
    Already high, going higher.

    I'm surprised you aren't worried. Aren't democrats concerned about the "middle class?" Don't you care about the "working people?"

    The tech workers can afford it.

    The blue collar workers driving buses, collecting garbage, fixing plumbing, not to mention the "guest workers" hanging out in a "sanctuary city" can barely survive in this socialist paradise, let alone thrive.

    Pretty soon gay bay will have only 2 classes left: the rich and the exploited.

    Again, I can't wait for this train wreck.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    gunnut,

    I'm surprised you aren't worried. Aren't democrats concerned about the "middle class?" Don't you care about the "working people?"
    that's my point. with the enormous demand to live in SF, a rise in the minimum wage will have almost no impact whatsoever on unemployment levels. so it's going to be a good move for the people who AREN'T working tech.

    The blue collar workers driving buses, collecting garbage, fixing plumbing
    they're outnumbered by the people benefiting from this. SF's -median- annual income is $96K, which means the city's already pretty much made up of, as you say, "the rich and the exploited". actually if you look at how the poor will spend the extra money, consider this "trickling up" theory, as the middle class shopowners will likely see the money cycle back to them through broader increased demand.

    by the way, weren't you waiting for blue CA to just utterly collapse a few years ago? :-) hell's bells, -Jerry Brown's- governor, and CA's looking pretty decent.
    Last edited by astralis; 01 Aug 15, at 01:25.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    gunnut,

    by the way, weren't you waiting for blue CA to just utterly collapse a few years ago? :-) hell's bells, -Jerry Brown's- governor, and CA's looking pretty decent.
    Amen, brother.
    Amen.

  6. #21
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    gunnut,

    that's my point. with the enormous demand to live in SF, a rise in the minimum wage will have almost no impact whatsoever on unemployment levels. so it's going to be a good move for the people who AREN'T working tech.
    So why raise minimum wage? Everything is already expensive, no one is actually being paid at minimum wage, right? If so, in an environment such as SF, that means there's an excess of labor supply. If not, what's the point of raising it?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    they're outnumbered by the people benefiting from this. SF's -median- annual income is $96K, which means the city's already pretty much made up of, as you say, "the rich and the exploited". actually if you look at how the poor will spend the extra money, consider this "trickling up" theory, as the middle class shopowners will likely see the money cycle back to them through broader increased demand.
    So....wouldn't that cause general inflation?

    Minimum wage goes up from $8.50 to $15. What happens to those who worked their way up to $14? Now they make $15 minimum wage. Did they just get a pay cut or pay raise? What about those people who made $17? They used to have double the purchasing power of the wage floor. Now it's just over 10%. What about those people who made $30? They used to have 3.4 times more purchasing power than the wage floor. Now it's merely double. You see where this is going?

    How much do you make? Let's make that minimum wage. Wait, I've got a better idea. Make minimum wage higher than what you make now so you can get a raise. See how nice I am?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    by the way, weren't you waiting for blue CA to just utterly collapse a few years ago? :-) hell's bells, -Jerry Brown's- governor, and CA's looking pretty decent.
    Don't worry, the day is coming. It ain't gonna be tomorrow or next week. But that day is coming. It took 50 years, but democrats ruined Detroit. Ask any hardcore union worker in 1962 if he expected to see Detroit becoming a train wreck and he'd laugh you out of town.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    gunnut,

    So why raise minimum wage? Everything is already expensive, no one is actually being paid at minimum wage, right?
    if that's the issue, why are you against something that won't affect anyone? :-)

    more seriously, the point is that for minimal economic inefficiency, you broaden spending power base significantly. under current economic conditions, more people benefit than lose.

    So....wouldn't that cause general inflation?

    Minimum wage goes up from $8.50 to $15. What happens to those who worked their way up to $14? Now they make $15 minimum wage. Did they just get a pay cut or pay raise? What about those people who made $17? They used to have double the purchasing power of the wage floor. Now it's just over 10%. What about those people who made $30? They used to have 3.4 times more purchasing power than the wage floor. Now it's merely double. You see where this is going?

    How much do you make? Let's make that minimum wage. Wait, I've got a better idea. Make minimum wage higher than what you make now so you can get a raise. See how nice I am?
    argument of the extreme. there would be very little inflationary value when you're talking about a raise from $12.25 (what SF minimum wage is now, by the way) up to $15.

    Don't worry, the day is coming. It ain't gonna be tomorrow or next week. But that day is coming. It took 50 years, but democrats ruined Detroit. Ask any hardcore union worker in 1962 if he expected to see Detroit becoming a train wreck and he'd laugh you out of town.
    lol, you mean how free trade and robotics are all Democratic ideas that ruined an one-industry town? it's a good thing we have uber-conservative San Francisco being one of the fastest engines of economic development in the US to show the lib'rals how it's done, right? :-)

    the funny thing is that a high minimum wage/guaranteed minimum income used to be an idea championed by conservatives to get people off the welfare state (much like Obamacare).

    well, let me know when the day comes that SF goes completely bankrupt off the folly of increasing minimum wage from $12 to $15.
    Last edited by astralis; 03 Aug 15, at 23:38.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  8. #23
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    gunnut,

    if that's the issue, why are you against something that won't affect anyone? :-)

    more seriously, the point is that for minimal economic inefficiency, you broaden spending power base significantly. under current economic conditions, more people benefit than lose.

    argument of the extreme. there would be very little inflationary value when you're talking about a raise from $12.25 (what SF minimum wage is now, by the way) up to $15.
    So you are saying raising minimum wage from the existing $12.25 to $15 isn't a big deal for SF? OK, I'll take that. What about nationally? Do you think there is no inflationary pressure when federal minimum wage is adjusted from $8 to $15 in 2 years? Do you think the economic condition in Montgomery, AL is the same as SF, CA?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    lol, you mean how free trade and robotics are all Democratic ideas that ruined an one-industry town? it's a good thing we have uber-conservative San Francisco being one of the fastest engines of economic development in the US to show the lib'rals how it's done, right? :-)
    Go ahead and laugh.

    Businesses cannot control prices. Business can control costs. The higher the wage for low skilled worker, the more incentive there is to eliminate those jobs. Businesses don't waste money. They do things for a reason. They don't automate if manual labor is cheaper. If a low skilled labor is generating $30k in value but costs $35k to maintain, then I would rather install a machine that costs $50k and eliminate this job. I can recover that cost in 10 years and never have to deal with bad workers or work place violence.

    One more question for you: all those high paying tech jobs in SF, driving crazy growth, are they unionized?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the funny thing is that a high minimum wage/guaranteed minimum income used to be an idea championed by conservatives to get people off the welfare state (much like Obamacare).

    well, let me know when the day comes that SF goes completely bankrupt off the folly of increasing minimum wage from $12 to $15.
    When and where did I ever say SF will go bankrupt from increasing minimum wage from $12 to $15? Show me.


    edit: Oh yeah, you never answered my question about those people making $14 right now. What happens to them when minimum wage goes up to $15. Did they get a pay raise or a pay cut? And would you support raising the minimum wage to what your current salary is? Or even higher. We want you to get a raise.
    Last edited by gunnut; 04 Aug 15, at 00:24.
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    gunnut,

    Do you think there is no inflationary pressure when federal minimum wage is adjusted from $8 to $15 in 2 years? Do you think the economic condition in Montgomery, AL is the same as SF, CA?
    oh, i'm not for an immediate nation-wide minimum wage increase. i WOULD like to see something phased in within 5 years, to reduce the economic disruption (and not necessarily to $15 either). the inflationary pressure would actually be welcome right now-- this past year we've had no inflation/slight deflation. in fact, CBO already calculated that the costs of raising the minimum wage to $9 would cause no job losses to even a slight INCREASE in jobs. overall US family income would increase by $1 billion, inflation and employment adjusted.

    increasing to a $10 level would likely cost 500,000 jobs but overall family income would rise by an inflation/employment-adjusted $2 billion.

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44995

    the higher the wage for low skilled worker, the more incentive there is to eliminate those jobs. Businesses don't waste money. They do things for a reason. They don't automate if manual labor is cheaper. If a low skilled labor is generating $30k in value but costs $35k to maintain, then I would rather install a machine that costs $50k and eliminate this job. I can recover that cost in 10 years and never have to deal with bad workers or work place violence.
    no kidding, that's the econ 101 argument against minimum wages. but the world is more complex than basic econ 101.

    there's a world of difference when you raise wages when employment is going DOWN as opposed to when employment is going UP. moreover, at the levels we're talking about, it's roughly where the minimum wage was in 1968 after you adjust for decades of non-action.

    don't believe me? we've been running a natural experiment on minimum wages given our 50-state nation; here's the differential in employment growth when you compare states with, and states without, minimum wages.

    Name:  state comparison.jpg
Views: 573
Size:  25.5 KB

    One more question for you: all those high paying tech jobs in SF, driving crazy growth, are they unionized?
    not really relevant to the minimum wage conversation, but again-- huge difference between an industry where you have extremely highly-educated people in a high-demand industry environment that's hard to outsource, vs relatively low-demand, easily-outsource-able industries with high school graduates.

    When and where did I ever say SF will go bankrupt from increasing minimum wage from $12 to $15? Show me.
    OK-- let me know when SF becomes a "train wreck".

    edit: Oh yeah, you never answered my question about those people making $14 right now. What happens to them when minimum wage goes up to $15.
    they get a salary increase. they may or may not pay more depending on how the places they shop at respond to a minimum wage increase-- could be anything from reducing profit to cutting off management overhead to cutting people. by the way that's covered in the CBO report i mention above.

    and would you support raising the minimum wage to what your current salary is? Or even higher. We want you to get a raise.
    i answered this above. this is a reductio ad absurdum argument; of course doing that would be economically terrible.

    this argument is like me characterizing your argument as "heck, let's not even talk about raising the minimum wage, let's have no minimum wage at all. even better, let's just enslave foreign workers and make them do all our low-skill jobs, then we wouldn't need to worry about safety standards or salaries at all, or pensions, and if they try to unionize we can just gun 'em down and ship in the next batch."

    let's not dumb down the conversation like that.
    Last edited by astralis; 04 Aug 15, at 03:03.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #25
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    So....wouldn't that cause general inflation?

    Ah, inflation.
    I remember that.
    Yeah, that's another good reason to raise pay.

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    Asty, interesting how raising lower wages is good, but raising those slightly higher ones is a huge no, no.

    So, what you gona do to keep higher paying workers when they also ask for a raise?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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    Minimum wage requires minimum skills.

    There is no such law for minimum skills. Seriously, counting from 1 to 10 should be considered a minimum skill.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Minimum wage requires minimum skills.

    There is no such law for minimum skills. Seriously, counting from 1 to 10 should be considered a minimum skill.
    Well, you employed that person. The very fact assumes they have minimum skills.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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    The only thing that even come close to that assumption is on an employment application in which it asks what education level did you accomplish. And it is not a verifiable qualification. You're not asked to produce your high school diploma and most people just plain lie.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The only thing that even come close to that assumption is on an employment application in which it asks what education level did you accomplish. And it is not a verifiable qualification. You're not asked to produce your high school diploma and most people just plain lie.
    No interviews, some sort of limited time contract and such things?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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