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Thread: The Iran Deal

  1. #1
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    The Iran Deal

    To begin, I would like to point out that I am no apologist for Iran, or Israel, or Saudi, or any other regional player. There are too many instances of duplicity, broken promises, sabotaged agreements, and blatant lies to count on all sides.

    However, I find this deal to be a win for the US. Not because Iran agreed to inspections, cutting centrifuges, etc... hardly. It shows that all the hardline rhetoric got Iran, from the Ayatollah on down, nowhere. This is a coup of the status quo, and that is why so many feel threatened. The raison d'etre for hardliners everywhere has just suffered a major blow, and they now feel thteatened.

    Of course there are legitimate concerns. Will Iran stop reaching for a bomb? Will Iran stop supporting terrorist and criminal activities? These answers won't come over night and that ambiguity leaves many uneasy. I am one of the many, make no mistake.

    The world stands with nothing to lose if Iran choses to forego the agreement. It's not as if all of a sudden there is no threat, and we're all friends now. Business will continue to be conducted in the way it has since I have been alive. That's military business, intelligence business, and of course political business.

    This wasn't some mushy reunion on "Intervention" where the reformed person gushes tears of joy when they rejoin the family...this was the part where at least the person decided to go to rehab. The time in the family's life where they hope the person gets better, but they are willing to cut their losses because they can't bear to live with the addict any longer.

    But, assume that Iran is ready to rejoin the world already in progress. We win. The Saudis and Israelis don't like it; too bad. We need stability. We need unity. Unless a fractured middle east wants to see a United Islamic State of Arabia, and Israel truly wants to experience a struggle for survival the likes of which they have never seen - the world needs this deal to work.

    We have more than enough enemies to count, why not cross one off the list? Why not give Iran the chance to have a vested interest in regional stability?

    Anyway, that's my knee-jerk take on this subject. Thoughts? Comments? Insults? Post them!
    "We are all special cases." - Camus

  2. #2
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    My knee jerk reaction? Iran got five fucking bombs within 5 months from withdrawl from the NPT! Legally speaking, that ain't bad. Canada can have 100 bombs in 30 days mated to rockets.

    However, Canada got her knowledge legally before the NPT was formed. Iran did it illegally. If Canada did what Iran did, we would have 600 bombs ready. Iran at best can have 20 bombs in 10 years.

    But if Iran did nothing illegally, she would have zero bombs! There is a hell of a lot of difference between zero and 20 bombs.
    Chimo

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    Iran is sending 95% of her 20% EU put of the country in trade for the IAEA supplying the TRR with the 20% EU it needs. The Arak HWR is not going to produce easily extricable PU and all spent fuel will be sent out of the country. The number of centrifuges has been drastically cut severely limiting the ability to rapidly spin up production of bomb level EU. For us this is just about everything we could legally expect to get since Iran has a legal right to peaceful nuclear power.

  4. #4
    Senior Contributor DonBelt's Avatar
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    Iran is not the craziest player in the region anymore, which makes them more palatable by default.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DonBelt View Post
    Iran is not the craziest player in the region anymore, which makes them more palatable by default.
    That statement is scarier than you can imagined.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    That statement is scarier than you can imagined.
    Ok, Iran supports the Houthis, and other shia groups, the same way the KSA (sunnis) have been doing it for decades. How is Iran scarier?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Ok, Iran supports the Houthis, and other shia groups, the same way the KSA (sunnis) have been doing it for decades. How is Iran scarier?
    Nothing to do with Iran but who else is seeking the nuke and what no one has a plan to stop them.
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Nothing to do with Iran but who else is seeking the nuke and what no one has a plan to stop them.
    The Saudis (Pak bomb). Does US has plans to stop them? Maybe the US has already stopped the Saudis with the Iran deal (?).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    The Saudis (Pak bomb). Does US has plans to stop them? Maybe the US has already stopped the Saudis with the Iran deal (?).
    Neither the Saudis are that stupid to give up US nuclear protection (2000 nukes) for Pakisanti nukes (80 nukes) for which the Pakistanis can ill afford to lose against Indian nukes (110+)
    Chimo

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    BTW, add in the 10,000 inactive nukes the US has in inventory by treaty (ie, component form). Translation: For the Saudis to go for Pak nukes, she needs to give up American nuclear protection (12,000 nukes) for Pakistani protection (80 nukes) of which most of them has to target India.

    You want to do the math again?
    Chimo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Neither the Saudis are that stupid to give up US nuclear protection (2000 nukes) for Pakisanti nukes (80 nukes) for which the Pakistanis can ill afford to lose against Indian nukes (110+)
    Sir, I'm looking it from the PoV of the Saudis. Ofcourse they are under the US nuclear umbrella, but that doesn't mean Americans have leased their nukes to the Saudis for them to lob those at Iran. If Iran does get a bomb covertly, won't the Saudis rely on the Pakistanis more to have a bomb with codes and stuff that they can actually use without asking the Americans? Their (Saudis) displeasure of Iran going nuclear is on record, and also the rhetoric that they too will, if Iran does. How exactly will the Saudis go nuclear/get nukes? US, IMV won't let the Saudis go nuclear. Pakistan is their only choice, then. They bankrolled the Pakistani nuclear program.

    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    BTW, add in the 10,000 inactive nukes the US has in inventory by treaty (ie, component form). Translation: For the Saudis to go for Pak nukes, she needs to give up American nuclear protection (12,000 nukes) for Pakistani protection (80 nukes) of which most of them has to target India.

    You want to do the math again?
    No. I learnt the math, from you. I am not talking numbers here, but possible Iranian nukes and the possible Saudi reaction.

    Also, most major news outlets have stated that Indian has 90+ and Pakistan 110+ nukes. This is confusing.
    Last edited by Oracle; 16 Jul 15, at 07:44.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Good to see what i've been pushing for years here reach some sort of starting point

    Now the hard work and compliance begins. Iran agrees to ten years of body cavity searches and at the end of that the world begins to trust Iran some more.

    A LOT can happen in between. it will happen, but so long as the momentum is maintained i think we might come out ok.

    Nobody needs the ME to become a bigger mess that it already is.

    its a gamble. bigger than the one Nixon or FDR made. But Iran isn't looking too bad and that should help keep things under control in Iran. Rouhani has delivered to the Iranian people.

    Looking forward to Israel getting to know the Gulf and vice versa a little better now.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jul 15, at 16:22.

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    The protests and subsequent election of Rouhani are a good indication that the people in Iran are ready to rejoin the world community, and this deal gives the moderates in Iran a win they sorely needed.

    With more normal economic relations, I hope to see the moderates in Iran to strengthen their power in the Iranian government, and begin to marginalize most of the "Death to West" types. If we can get Iran invested in the international system, they are far more likely to curb their more unsavory behaviors.

    Besides, the last thing the region needs right now is another Ahmadinejad spitting fire and defiance after telling the world powers where they can stick their nuclear deal.

  14. #14
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    If we can get Iran invested in the international system, they are far more likely to curb their more unsavory behaviors.
    That is the carrot and the bet is they will go for it.

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    Senior Contributor DonBelt's Avatar
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    I don't think the average person in Iran has much interest in the Islamic revolution. The demographics are getting younger and all these people know from birth is that the regime is always getting in fights with the outside world, everything is in short supply and you have to keep your mouth shut if you don't want to disappear. But they are very nationalistic and if they feel like the US or the West is pushing them to get rid of the government or anything else I think they will rally around the government whether they like it or not. If the standard of living goes up for the average person, particularly the younger people and they see that as being part of the larger world and not as coming from the mullahs, then that is a good thing. They may eventually drive the theocracy out themselves and be a helpful counter against the Wahabi. If they think the good times (if there are improvements) are a result of the mullah's leadership, then that just emboldens Iran's theocracy and no good will come of that.

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