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Thread: The Iran Deal

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Gentlemen,welcome to Shiastan,the biggest oil producer of tomorrow.

    The pro's for the West are fairly simple:fvck Russia.And that's about it short term.Long term,there will be somebody that can screw the Sunnis,who are nothing but trouble.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Iran is sending 95% of her 20% EU put of the country in trade for the IAEA supplying the TRR with the 20% EU it needs. The Arak HWR is not going to produce easily extricable PU and all spent fuel will be sent out of the country. The number of centrifuges has been drastically cut severely limiting the ability to rapidly spin up production of bomb level EU. For us this is just about everything we could legally expect to get since Iran has a legal right to peaceful nuclear power.
    As much as it pains me, I agree 100%.

    Consider: the last time Iran invaded anybody it was still called Persia, 189 years ago this month. Given that the Russians had been attacking Persia for decades, it seems fairly justified.
    Last edited by DOR; 17 Jul 15, at 07:30.

  3. #18
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    BTW, add in the 10,000 inactive nukes the US has in inventory by treaty (ie, component form). Translation: For the Saudis to go for Pak nukes, she needs to give up American nuclear protection (12,000 nukes) for Pakistani protection (80 nukes) of which most of them has to target India.

    You want to do the math again?
    You keep insisting that SA is somehow under US nuclear protection. I see no evidence of that, certainly not in writing.
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  4. #19
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    As much as it pains me, I agree 100%.

    Consider: the last time Iran invaded anybody it was still called Persia, 189 years ago this month.
    Iran is currently occupying coastal Syria, most of Lebanon and central Iraq.
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  5. #20
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    You keep insisting that SA is somehow under US nuclear protection. I see no evidence of that, certainly not in writing.
    It dates back to Carter.

    The Brits left the gulf in the early 70s, this left Iran in charge of policing. Then Iran went native and decided they wanted more. Enter US carrier groups to escort tankers through the gulf. The US bases become more important in the smaller states.

    US nukes, blood & treasure defend Jerusalem & Mecca.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Jul 15, at 09:43.

  6. #21
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It dates back to Carter.

    The Brits left the gulf in the early 70s, this left Iran in charge of policing. Then they went native and decided they wanted more. Enter US carrier groups to escort tankers through the gulf. The US bases become more important in the smaller states.

    US nukes defend Jerusalem & Mecca.
    Nope, neither in writing or word. Ha-aretz thought Kerry might be offering it in March of this year but nothing came of it. Certainly SA would want such an undertaking in writing given Obama's betrayal of Poland and the Czech Republic and there has been nothing. the US has secured the sea routes and found SA and the other Sunni's useful but has now made it entirely plain they side with the Shia. There is no protection for Saudi Arabia, now or in the future other than that they negotiate themselves, hence their rapport with Israel.
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  7. #22
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Wait for the next administration.

    Not in writing or word but in action. See both gulf wars. The pressure on Syria. Action against Da'esh. The sanctions on Iran for the last thirty years. Consider the Israeli side, how many billions in support has it been since the Camp David accords. Support to Egypt as well. Pressure on arms dealers not to upset the balance.

    So do you beleive if any one messes with either of those two countries that the US wil idly sit by. i don't.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Jul 15, at 10:18.

  8. #23
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Wait for the next administration.

    Not in writing or word but in action. See both gulf wars. The pressure on Syria. Action against Da'esh. The sanctions on Iran for the last thirty years. Consider the Israeli side, how many billions in support has it been since the Camp David accords. Support to Egypt as well. Pressure on arms dealers not to upset the balance.

    So do you beleive if any one messes with either of those two countries that the US wil idly sit by. i don't.
    Iran is already messing with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Yemen, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The US is making deals with Iran and not making deals with Saudi Arabia.
    Last edited by Parihaka; 17 Jul 15, at 10:36.
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  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    You keep insisting that SA is somehow under US nuclear protection. I see no evidence of that, certainly not in writing.
    American military bases in the KSA. That is a bigger committement of nuclear protection than anything Israel have. After all, they are primary military nuclear targets.
    Chimo

  10. #25
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    American military bases in the KSA. That is a bigger committement of nuclear protection than anything Israel have. After all, they are primary military nuclear targets.
    At current open source I see a few Americans based at Eskan, that's it. How does that provide a nuclear umbrella for SA?
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility

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  11. #26
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    well, "a few" being one of the largest (if not the largest) US security assistance organizations...there's probably some 200-300 US personnel, trainers, and support in SA.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  12. #27
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    I find The 64th Air Expeditionary Group to be a very viable nuclear target.
    Chimo

  13. #28
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    I don't think KSA is important enough to the US to justify carte blanche nuclear protection. I'm certainly not too keen on being overly invested in a country that is as ripe for civil unrest and instability as KSA. I happen to think that Iran has the makings of a better long term strategic partner for the US than the Saudis anyhow.

    The US has certainly proven willing enough to go to bat with conventional forces to protect the Saudis in the recent past, but what do the Saudis have to offer that would justify a formal promise of US nuclear protection? In the past their oil reserves might have been enough, but between hydraulic fracturing, renewable energy development and detente with Iran, that isn't going to carry nearly the same weight going forward.

  14. #29
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Certainly SA would want such an undertaking in writing given Obama's betrayal of Poland and the Czech Republic and there has been nothing.
    Betrayal? Last I heard, the US is currently prepositioning more heavy weapons and equipment in Eastern Europe than anytime since the fall of the Soviet Union. Poland is also slated to receive ballistic missile interceptor sites in 2018, and NATO members certainly do fall under the US nuclear umbrella. That doesn't exactly sound like Obama is selling Warsaw to Moscow.
    Last edited by SteveDaPirate; 17 Jul 15, at 20:57.

  15. #30
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    Betrayal? Last I heard, the US is currently prepositioning more heavy weapons and equipment in Eastern Europe than anytime since the fall of the Soviet Union. Poland is also slated to receive ballistic missile interceptor sites in 2018, and NATO members certainly do fall under the US nuclear umbrella. That doesn't exactly sound like Obama is selling Warsaw to Moscow.
    The quote refers to a specific instance
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ng-Poland.html
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