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  • col,

    hell, Deng did half the turnaround in eight years, from a far lower base. remember, 1989 was caused by overinflation and the beginnings of the Chinese economic boom. Deng pretty much told the PLA to eat budget cuts because he was -that- determined to use the money to turn his country around.

    what is Putin doing?

    he's trying to play out of his league, and the associated costs will dent the Russian economy and power, not just in the short-term but the long. how's Russia going to sustain this with a population 15% smaller and poorer than today's?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • to summarize as this argument thread is getting longish:

      Putin had a golden period of abnormally high oil prices from 2001-2008. during this time period, several Russian puppets were run out of town and turned into Western-friendly countries. he has in effect been using his reserves from that period to crush internal opposition and ensure that those new Western-friendly countries don't go outright Western.

      it's now 2016 and those reserves are now more than half gone, burned through in less than two years. oil prices will not be anywhere close to break even for Putin for the foreseeable future. so, this is great leadership how?
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

      Comment


      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
        hell, Deng did half the turnaround in eight years, from a far lower base. remember, 1989 was caused by overinflation and the beginnings of the Chinese economic boom. Deng pretty much told the PLA to eat budget cuts because he was -that- determined to use the money to turn his country around.
        The cost was also 30,000 lives; China effectively surrounded; and be the very good little boy to both the US and the USSR. Hell, China even had to cancel the sale of 8 J-7s to the USN AGGRESSOR Squadron because Moscow said no. China had to surrender her client, Cambodia, to Vietnam.

        You think Putin can surrender the Ukraines or Georgia to the US?

        And frankly, Putin is not even a quarter of the thug that DXP was.
        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 12 Sep 16,, 17:02.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • What Russian puppets were run out of town between 2001 and 2008?

          How is any of this WORSE than the nations added to NATO, which started in 1999, and more or less on schedule through the First Bush Term, about which Putin could do nothing?

          Russia has a crappy hand. That Putin is not World Emperor is not a reflection of Putin's skills. Russian relations with all non-European nations are dramatically better than they were when Putin took office. Putin's economic management has ridden out SIX YEARS of recession, whereas the 1998 crisis basically destroyed the nation in a matter of months. Putin has rebuffed all NATO advancement. Putin has chased NATO out of Central Asia at virtually no cost to himself. Putin kept his stooge in Syria in place despite the whole world wishing him gone.
          US troops in Europe are at their lowest point since, what, 1941?

          Putin, when he took office, was left with a navy so horrific the Kursk sank on its second voyage. Putin today can sail submarines into Stockholm without punishment and almost without anyone noticing, and can fly intercontinental bombing missions.
          "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
            snapper,


            thanks for re-centering this. the original argument is that Putin is a better leader than Obama. my assertion is that Russian strategy has fundamentally failed, and that Putin at BEST has ameliorated the worst effects of the failure. i'm not discussing Obama at this point.
            In that context I must agree with you; Putin is all about short term tactical victories - in some ways he has to be - at the expense of any long term strategic gain. 'Leadership' is not about being seen to always do something but about knowing when to do what and when to leave well alone - sitting on ones paws is sometimes the best option and though it may not be as popular as being seen to 'do something' a good leader will sometimes take that option. Sometimes a battle should be refused and there is no dishonour in that, it can be the best option but Putin by having to be seen to always be on the front foot either considers he doesn't have or that option or doesn't understand that sometimes it may be the best option and the result has been tactical victories and strategic loss.

            Comment


            • col,

              The cost was also 30,000 lives; China effectively surrounded; and be the very good little boy to both the US and the USSR. Hell, China even had to cancel the sale of 8 J-7s to the USN AGGRESSOR Squadron because Moscow said no. China had to surrender her client, Cambodia, to Vietnam.

              You think Putin can surrender the Ukraines or Georgia to the US?

              And frankly, Putin is not even a quarter of the thug that DXP was.
              and that's precisely my point. DXP took huge, absolutely huge risks to national security-- to include the possibility of war with the USSR-- to ensure China would diversify and transform itself into a modern power over the period of 25 years. he faced down his domestic opponents without the benefit of a huge reserve of petrodollars. he eschewed influence to ensure that China would grow, even happily working with japan to make it happen.

              Russia started from a far higher base-- even 1990s Russia was nothing as f*cked up as 1970s China-- and had the influx of hundreds of billions of dollars thanks to oil. yet Putin's strategy has completely been short-term and reactive, and the costs are adding up. as i said he's eaten through half his reserves and has damned little to show for it. good luck once those reserves peter out...

              http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-Ne...hortfalls.html

              and here's the russian problem:

              http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oi...-idUSKCN0ZK1TS
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

              Comment


              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                Russia started from a far higher base-- even 1990s Russia was nothing as f*cked up as 1970s China
                Are you kidding me? If anything, it was even more fucked up. 1990s Russia was not even a shadow of the USSR that was there just a year before. Beijing lost a client. Moscow lost the entire country.
                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 12 Sep 16,, 20:05.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • ^ GPCR.

                  Russia's GDP per capita in 1990 was $3500/yr.

                  China's GDP per capita in 1975 was $175/yr.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                    ^ GPCR.
                    And Zhou En Lai and his protogie won that Civil War and Deng won two more Civil Wars after that and crushed internal dissent with an iron fist that would have made Stalin proud.

                    Originally posted by astralis View Post
                    Russia's GDP per capita in 1990 was $3500/yr.

                    China's GDP per capita in 1975 was $175/yr.
                    Russia was barely a country and was in the process of losing Chechnya. All the major accounting and treaty obligations were not finalized which major countries like India defaulting on a few deals because they signed with the USSR and not Russia. The point here is that China was a national unified entity. Russia was not no matter what the GDP says. You can't make deals or decisions if you don't even know if your authority was going to be respected.

                    So, DXP was in a position to drag China forward. Boris Yeltsin was not and frankly neither was Putin until his second term when he re-established Moscow's authority.
                    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 12 Sep 16,, 21:03.
                    Chimo

                    Comment


                    • both Russia and China were chaotic in the 90s and 60s/70s respectively, I'd argue China had it worse given the number of deaths in the GPCR and the outright internal violence. the three civil wars you point to is evidence of that. a million dead from violence, countless number from famine, and by comparison how bad was Chechnya to that?

                      anyways, my one line excepted we're talking about post-chaos strategy. short-term, reactive to long-term, pro-active. the -results- couldn't be more different comparing the two countries today.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                      Comment


                      • The difference is the emergence of strong leaders in China while Putin was late to the game. Out of the internal strife, China put forth Zhou and Deng. Russia put forth Yeltsin. There was absolutely zero question who the leader was in China and cross him at your own pearl ... and a few tried, including Jiang Qing.

                        And truth be told, Deng and Zhou couldn't care less how many people died on the way to a prosperous China. Hell, Putin could not survive politically if too many Russians die in the Ukraines.

                        The same cannot be said of Yeltsin. So compare the Russia Yeltsin left to the Russia of Putin today.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Bill Clinton: Hillary Clinton has 'rarely,' but on occasion, had dehydration spells
                          Eric Bradner

                          By Eric Bradner, CNN

                          Updated 7:37 PM ET, Mon September 12, 2016



                          Washington (CNN)Former President Bill Clinton says Hillary Clinton has a history of occasionally becoming severely dehydrated and suffering "the same sort of thing" she experienced when she stumbled leaving an event Sunday.
                          "Rarely, on more than one occasion, over the last many, many years, the same sort of thing's happened to her when she got severely dehydrated, and she's worked like a demon, as you know, as secretary of state, as a senator, and in the years since," Bill Clinton told Charlie Rose, in a clip of an interview aired on CBS Monday evening.

                          Hillary Clinton is "doing fine" now as she recuperates from pneumonia at home in New York, Bill Clinton said.
                          "She was even better last night before she went to sleep. She had a good night's sleep. She just got dehydrated yesterday," the former president told Rose of Hillary Clinton's early departure from a commemorative ceremony at Ground Zero in Manhattan -- and her stumble at her campaign van.
                          Clinton's campaign revealed hours later Sunday that she'd been diagnosed Friday with pneumonia, and said she'd become overheated that morning. Bill Clinton said nothing more serious is happening.
                          "Well, if it is (more serious) then it's a mystery to me and all of her doctors," Bill Clinton said.
                          When Rose noted Clinton's age -- at 68, she'd be among the oldest first-term presidents -- and her grueling campaign schedule, Bill Clinton pointed to his wife's more recent campaign events.
                          "She had two-and-a-half hard days before the day when she got dizzy," he said. "Today she made a decision, which I think was correct, to cancel her campaign day to take one more day to rest."
                          Asked if the former secretary of state could miss weeks on the campaign trail, Bill Clinton said: "No, not a shot. I'll be lucky to hold her back another day."
                          Clinton canceled a planned trip Monday to California. Her campaign has said it will release more details about her medical history later this week in an effort to demonstrate she isn't suffering greater health problems.
                          http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/politi...lth/index.html
                          To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            And Zhou En Lai and his protogie won that Civil War and Deng won two more Civil Wars after that and crushed internal dissent with an iron fist that would have made Stalin proud.
                            Out of the internal strife, China put forth Zhou and Deng. Russia put forth Yeltsin. There was absolutely zero question who the leader was in China and cross him at your own pearl ... and a few tried, including Jiang Qing.
                            Zhou Enlai's death led to the First Tiananmen Incident (Qing Ming, 1976), at which time Jiang Qing and the other Gangsters were still waging Cultural Revolution. Mao Zedong chose Deng Xiaoping (in 1973-74) to rein in the post-Lin Biao PLA, and because he knew that Zhou was not healthy and might not be around to manage the post-Mao transition.


                            Deng Xiaoping was restored to power in August 1977, 11 months after Mao died. During those 11 months, Hua Guofeng established (in Feb 1977) the "Two Whatevers" principle (两个凡是): "We will resolutely uphold whatever policy decisions Chairman Mao made, and unswervingly follow whatever instructions Chairman Mao gave." Deng swallowed that malarkey for a bit more than a year, and then countered with an ancient couplet, "Seek truth from facts" (實事求是) that dates back to the Han.

                            After the 11th National Party Congress (Aug 1977) confirmed Hua as chair, premier and head of the military affairs committee -- more titles than Mao had -- Deng maneuvered to cut Hua's feet out from under him. He followed the old Mao strategy of surrounding the cities, in this case, by reorganizing the provincial Revolutionary Committees into People's Governments. At a stroke, dozens of RC vice chairs were out of jobs, and a few reliable ones made Vice Governors. Within about a year, Hua didn't have a leg to stand on.

                            Still, Deng had to content with Chen Yun and a couple of other party stalwarts. He ruled with the consent of his colleagues, but when they presented a united front in opposition to some part of his program (e.g., too rapid liberalization), he had to temporarily back down.
                            Last edited by DOR; 13 Sep 16,, 09:35.
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

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                            • She forgets to hydrate. So, what else will she forget when elected?
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                She forgets to hydrate. So, what else will she forget when elected?
                                My wife is 63 and also suffers from this on occasion. It happens in some post menopausal women. Its not something which is neither debilitating nor life threatening. It is annoying. She treats it radically...by improving her hydration. That is why she has a reminder to drink her water. Perhaps SEC Clinton should do the same. It happens sometimes when people get very busy in stressful situations. My wife runs a large hospital which serves as the major trauma center in Central Virginia from the Appomattox to the North Carolina border. Sometimes things get in the way.
                                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                                Mark Twain

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