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  • I'll take that up. NATO expansion is stopped cold. Both Georgia and the Ukraines will not get NATO membership if only because it would be military suicide to do so. Both Georgia and the Ukraines might be gearing to the West but they will have to satisfy Russia's security concerns.
    NATO expansion was already at its limits in 2008 anyway. Ukraine wasn't even on the table in 2008 for that matter, Georgia's drive was stopped by Germany and France prior to the war.

    the 2014 revolution turned Ukraine from a puppet of Putin and a Russian arms factory to Ukrainians literally shooting and killing Russians. for that matter, same thing with Georgia-- it was a Russian puppet as late as 2003 prior to the Rose Revolution. given their respective location on the globe, of course they always have had cause to be worried about the Russians; now a good portion of their populace actively hates the Russians.

    IE, there's not going to be a return to puppet status. so much for eastern european hegemony, the cornerstone of Putin's strategy.

    Israeli air power is effectively neutralized and Assad's survival is no longer under threat.
    i dare say Israel would disagree with the first and as for the second, the US was never serious about taking him out anyways. Assad is simply not a major US concern.

    in short, "resurgent" Russia is significantly weaker economically (by 20%!) than she was in 2008, has weaker control of her periphery than in 2008, has far more hostile neighbors than she did in 2008, and has a hard US military presence in her backyard. her Ukraine adventure has proved to be a strategic disaster.

    Putin's goal for over the last decade was to exert hegemony over eastern europe, weaken NATO resolve, and get the US out of europe. none of that's happened. that's not even treading water, that's a collapse in strategy.
    Last edited by astralis; 12 Sep 16,, 02:09.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

    Comment


    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
      NATO expansion was already at its limits in 2008 anyway. Ukraine wasn't even on the table in 2008 for that matter, Georgia's drive was stopped by Germany and France prior to the war.
      And yet, the US got the Ukraines and the Georgia to commit to reforms to NATO standards. From everybody's POV, that was a backdoor attempt to get the Ukraines and Georgia in. Even the Ukrainians knew what the US was trying.

      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      i dare say Israel would disagree with the first
      Israel is not going to attack Russian SAM sites which means they won't be flying over them any time soon. Effectively neutralized.

      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      and as for the second, the US was never serious about taking him out anyways. Assad is simply not a major US concern.
      Obama screamed, "CHARGE!" Putin screamed, "STOP!" You're going to tell me that Obama didn't lose credibility and Putin didn't gain any?
      Chimo

      Comment


      • .....

        . un Sep 11, 2016 | 8:32 PM EDT
        Diagnosed with pneumonia, Clinton falls ill at 9/11 memorial


        0:00



        2h ago | 01:16
        Battling pneumonia, Clinton falls ill at 9/11 ceremony
        X
        By Amanda Becker | NEW YORK
        Hillary Clinton's personal doctor on Sunday said the Democratic presidential candidate was suffering from pneumonia after she fell ill at a Sept. 11 memorial, in an episode that renewed focus on her health less than two months before the general election.

        Clinton was diagnosed on Friday, but her condition only came to light several hours after a video on social media appeared to show her swaying and her knees buckling before she is helped into a motorcade as she left the memorial early Sunday.

        Clinton had a medical examination when she got back to her home in Chappaqua, New York, according to a campaign aide. Her doctor, Lisa Bardack, said in a statement that she has been experiencing a cough related to allergies and that an examination on Friday showed it was pneumonia.

        "She was put on antibiotics and advised to rest and modify her schedule. While at this morning's event, she became overheated and dehydrated. I have just examined her and she is now re-hydrated and recovering nicely," Bardack said.

        It was not yet clear whether Clinton would stick to a hectic schedule that has her travelling to California on Monday for several campaign and fundraising events.

        Regardless of how much the illness curtails the 68-year-old's campaigning, the diagnosis comes at a crucial time in the White House race against Republican rival Donald Trump. The first of three debates is on Sept. 26 and the election is on Nov. 8.

        Some Clinton allies said the incident underscored the candidate's resilience.

        "After being diagnosed with pneumonia, Hillary Clinton ran a two-hour national security meeting, gave a press conference, and spent an hour and a half in the heat at a September 11 event," said Peter Daou, who worked for Clinton in the past and now has a communications firm.

        "It was an impressive feat of physical strength that undermined weeks of health conspiracies."

        'LESS SPECULATION'

        Clinton abruptly departed the high-profile, televised event at Ground Zero and was taken to her daughter Chelsea's home in Manhattan. She emerged around two hours later on a warm and muggy morning, wearing sunglasses and telling reporters that she was "feeling great."

        The video that showed her swaying and buckling with aides holding her up came from an unverified Twitter account under the name Zdenek Gazda, who did not respond to a request for comment. The Clinton campaign did not respond to repeated requests for comment about the authenticity of the video.

        Political strategists said the campaign should confront the health issue head-on to tamp down any concerns, particularly as Republican rival Donald Trump and some of his high-profile supporters have repeatedly argued that she lacked the "stamina" to battle adversaries abroad.

        ADVERTISEMENT

        For Bud Jackson, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist, the statement from the doctor was a good start.

        “I think they did the right thing. They had her examined and put out a statement. It means less speculation,” Jackson said.

        Jackson said Sunday's incident will be “instructive” for the campaign and should encourage more transparency from the Clinton camp about her health. It is in their best interest to disclose anything in the future, he said, rather than have it leaked or exposed via another episode like Sunday's.

        As the solemn ceremony began at the site of the World Trade Center that was attacked by two hijacked airliners 15 years ago, there was patchy sunlight, with temperatures at about 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.6 Celsius). But the high humidity early into the ceremony caused it to feel much hotter in the crowd at times.

        Clinton wore a high-collared shirt and a dark pant suit and donned sunglasses for the morning event. Democratic Representative Joe Crowley of New York, a Clinton supporter who attended the event, told Reuters that it was "incredibly, stiflingly hot" during the ceremony.

        Clinton's pneumonia diagnosis follows a wave of conservative conspiracy theories that circulated in recent weeks suggesting that Clinton's coughing was a sign of deeper problems
        To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

        Comment


        • col,

          think you're losing sight of the big picture for the trees.

          And yet, the US got the Ukraines and the Georgia to commit to reforms to NATO standards. From everybody's POV, that was a backdoor attempt to get the Ukraines and Georgia in. Even the Ukrainians knew what the US was trying.
          BTW, these efforts are still continuing to this day. they are further changing orientation to the West. that's -still- a huge change from being Putin puppets.

          Obama screamed, "CHARGE!" Putin screamed, "STOP!" You're going to tell me that Obama didn't lose credibility and Putin didn't gain any?
          actually it was Obama who changed his mind at the last second and decided not to burn Assad.

          -regardless-, how is today a strategic improvement for the Russians in that regard? OK...they kept one of their puppets alive...a puppet located in the Middle East and thus has no bearing on Russian desires to exert hegemony on her borders. again, treading water.

          still don't see any major victory that countervails a 20% collapse in the economy and the loss of her next door puppets. where is this strategic genius?
          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

          Comment


          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
            col,

            think you're losing sight of the big picture for the trees.
            I see the big picture you don't.

            Originally posted by astralis View Post
            BTW, these efforts are still continuing to this day. they are further changing orientation to the West. that's -still- a huge change from being Putin puppets.
            Without NATO membership, both the Ukraines and Georgia MUST adhere to Russian security concerns, translation: beg Russia not to attack.

            Originally posted by astralis View Post
            actually it was Obama who changed his mind at the last second and decided not to burn Assad.
            We're talking influence. Obama lost big and Putin won big. Do note the world views Putin as the one who saved Obama's ass from himself.

            Originally posted by astralis View Post
            -regardless-, how is today a strategic improvement for the Russians in that regard? OK...they kept one of their puppets alive...a puppet located in the Middle East and thus has no bearing on Russian desires to exert hegemony on her borders. again, treading water.

            still don't see any major victory that countervails a 20% collapse in the economy and the loss of her next door puppets. where is this strategic genius?
            That collapse was coming regardless. Putin could have done nothing about the drop in prices. So, the question is suffer the loss with zero gains and hope the US gives you scraps for good behaviour OR suffer the loss and dictate from a position of strength.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • col,

              Without NATO membership, both the Ukraines and Georgia MUST adhere to Russian security concerns, translation: beg Russia not to attack.
              at best, they are neutral, but western-oriented neutral. again, loss of Russian influence and strength over puppetry.

              We're talking influence. Obama lost big and Putin won big. Do note the world views Putin as the one who saved Obama's ass from himself.
              don't see it. none of this, for instance, is persuading Putin's neighbors to essentially kowtow to Putin. if there was a loss of trust in the US role as an ally, then Eastern Europe wouldn't be begging for more Dragoon Rides from the US.

              Putin could have done nothing about the drop in prices. So, the question is suffer the loss with zero gains and hope the US gives you scraps for good behaviour OR suffer the loss and dictate from a position of strength.
              sure he could have. diversify his economy. integrate more closely with the international market. not bring on heavy sanctions. as it is, he's begging the Chinese will give him scraps for good behavior instead of the US, and this is better for Russia how?

              Putin is -reacting-, IE all of his strategy so far has been to at best ameliorate the enormous collapse of Russian influence and power in his periphery. and he's not particularly playing a good hand, either. where is he dictating to anyone, other than the "independent" Donetsk and Luhansk Republics?
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

              Comment


              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                at best, they are neutral, but western-oriented neutral. again, loss of Russian influence and strength over puppetry.
                Like I believe that will last. 1997, both Georgia and the Ukraines sided with Russia and gave the go for Russian paratroopers to fly through their airspace ... with popular support. Again, without NATO membership, both the Ukraines and Georgia will have to address all of Moscow's security concerns. For example, no one in the Ukraines nor Georgia is supporting their "NATO" ally Turkey against Moscow.

                Come to think of it, both the Ukraines and Georgia are still under the Russian nuclear umbrella.

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                don't see it. none of this, for instance, is persuading Putin's neighbors to essentially kowtow to Putin.
                Putin also stopped them from kissing Obama's ass.

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                if there was a loss of trust in the US role as an ally, then Eastern Europe wouldn't be begging for more Dragoon Rides from the US.
                Who else are they going to beg? France and Germany?

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                sure he could have. diversify his economy. integrate more closely with the international market.
                How was that going to stop the drop in oil prices?

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                not bring on heavy sanctions.
                The Ukraines and Georgia in NATO through the backdoor ... and please don't deny that was EXACTLY what the US was trying to do. With that in mind, sanctions were better, at least from Putin's perspective. Hell, even the Ukraines was actively seeking NATO membership.

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                as it is, he's begging the Chinese will give him scraps for good behavior instead of the US, and this is better for Russia how?
                The Chinese need him more.

                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                Putin is -reacting-, IE all of his strategy so far has been to at best ameliorate the enormous collapse of Russian influence and power in his periphery. and he's not particularly playing a good hand, either. where is he dictating to anyone, other than the "independent" Donetsk and Luhansk Republics?
                Israel for one. Stay the hell out of Russia's sphere of influence.
                Chimo

                Comment


                • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  if there was a loss of trust in the US role as an ally, then Eastern Europe wouldn't be begging for more Dragoon Rides from the US.
                  Why are there Dragoon Rides in the first place? Weren't we pivoting toward the Pacific?
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Well, this seems to be the moment in the election when the Clinton health story gains traction.

                    I wonder if this will detract or add to her support.

                    On the one hand, we want a healthy president. On the other hand, the idea that she might croak soon after the election might make her ticket more palatable to many, yours truly included. After all Tim Kaine has a pretty good reputation.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      And yet, the US got the Ukraines and the Georgia to commit to reforms to NATO standards. From everybody's POV, that was a backdoor attempt to get the Ukraines and Georgia in. Even the Ukrainians knew what the US was trying.
                      Georgian and Ukrainian membership of NATO was ruled out short term at the Bucharest NATO 'summit' in 2008 by the younger Bush in return for Muscovite permission and cooperation in the 'war on terror' which was rightly regarded at the time as higher priority.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      Putin's goal for over the last decade was to exert hegemony over eastern europe, weaken NATO resolve, and get the US out of europe. none of that's happened. that's not even treading water, that's a collapse in strategy.
                      I agree by and large by the question is how much of this is due to Obama rather than Muscovite mistakes and the answer would arguably be none of it.

                      Comment


                      • snapper,

                        I agree by and large by the question is how much of this is due to Obama rather than Muscovite mistakes and the answer would arguably be none of it.
                        thanks for re-centering this. the original argument is that Putin is a better leader than Obama. my assertion is that Russian strategy has fundamentally failed, and that Putin at BEST has ameliorated the worst effects of the failure. i'm not discussing Obama at this point.

                        he has, at very high cost to his state, prevented Georgia and Ukraine from formally joining NATO. which was the default state of affairs when they were puppets to begin with, and rather more friendly to Russia to boot.

                        more fundamentally, the internal steps Putin has taken is in effect a double-down of making Russia a petro state. given long-term trends in oil this is not a winning proposition-- especially as Russia's population has shrunk about 5% in the last generation...and will likely shrink by another 10-15% in the next.

                        this is not a Deng Xiaoping we're talking about here.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                          Why are there Dragoon Rides in the first place? Weren't we pivoting toward the Pacific?
                          The Dragoon Rides are mere dog and pony shows. No one is abandoning the agreement with Russia that the big NATO powers will not station permanent troops in Eastern Europe.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                            more fundamentally, the internal steps Putin has taken is in effect a double-down of making Russia a petro state. given long-term trends in oil this is not a winning proposition-- especially as Russia's population has shrunk about 5% in the last generation...and will likely shrink by another 10-15% in the next.

                            this is not a Deng Xiaoping we're talking about here.
                            I question your assertion that Putin would have been better off by diversifying his economy. In fact, I argue if he followed your suggestion, he would have been worst shape setting up the Russian economy to suffer even worst under sanctions. At the very least, the West do not control oil prices and he's open to sell to anyone who will buy and not afraid of sanctions on his oil.

                            In 2008, both the Ukraines and Georgia were openly seeking NATO membership. He stopped that cold.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • col,

                              I question your assertion that Putin would have been better off by diversifying his economy. In fact, I argue if he followed your suggestion, he would have been worst shape setting up the Russian economy to suffer even worst under sanctions. At the very least, the West do not control oil prices and he's open to sell to anyone who will buy and not afraid of sanctions on his oil.
                              i'd argue that diversification of the economy would make sanctions harder to implement-- both sides would have more to lose. moreover, he's putting all his eggs in the petro basket, which due to bigger swings in pricing hurts more than sanctions could due to single-point failure. IE, the recent sanctions were hard hitting but it was the extra 10-20% on top of the main damage caused by the oil.

                              and it's not long-term thinking, either. even if diversification were to cause more short-term damage, the idea would be that in the long-term you're not going to be stuck in an oil trap.

                              and that's precisely what's going to happen; the next innovations in tech will likely promote efficiency. there's going to be a glut of oil for a long time to come, and depressed oil prices. the West, and more specifically America, now DOES have a huge effect on oil prices; that's why there was an oil shock. American and Canadian shale flooding the market and paralyzing OPEC.

                              for practical intents and purposes there's a permanent $50-60 per barrel ceiling on oil (it is currently at $47 and even then US still finds it profitable to add rigs). Russia's breakeven is $100 per barrel and she's rapidly burning through her reserves to sustain things, even with drastic cuts and huge tax increases.

                              this is a strategic threat to Russia and there's dick all he's doing about it.
                              Last edited by astralis; 12 Sep 16,, 16:28.
                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                                i'd argue that diversification of the economy would make sanctions harder to implement-- both sides would have more to lose. moreover, he's putting all his eggs in the petro basket, which due to bigger swings in pricing hurts more than sanctions could due to single-point failure. IE, the recent sanctions were hard hitting but it was the extra 10-20% on top of the main damage caused by the oil.
                                I think you're forgetting the timeline. This is just 8 years. Hell, just 6 before all the mess in the Ukraines happened. That's barely enough time to put up a factory, tool it, and begin production of whatever widget you want to make. Then you got hit with sanctions that the West can afford, namely because Russia has not become a main supplier of whatever widget, and thus can go somewhere else, maybe even for a cheaper price.

                                In the meantime, you saw all that hardwork of keeping the Ukraines out of NATO just got tossed out the window when Putin's thug in Kiev had to run for his life.
                                Chimo

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