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Thread: The 2016 US General Election

  1. #16
    Staff Emeritus Julie's Avatar
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    I'm a Walker Warrior.

  2. #17
    Regular Vargas's Avatar
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    For me it seems that there was an agreement behind the scenes with both parties that the next president will be a Republican... Obama is taking a bunch of really unpopular measures like legalizing the illegals right before the 2014 elections...
    This, among with many others, helped the Republicans to expand their majority in the House of Representatives and to win the Senate. This however, was predicted. What really astonished me was that Maryland elected a Republican.
    Now THAT means something! Maryland has more than twice registered Democrats than Republicans, is a multiracial state with only 58.34% white population and a huge, more than 30% black one.
    Not only the Democratic candidate, Anthony Brown was partly black, but also, as I mentioned before, the state has more than twice the number of registered Democrats than Republicans.
    And Larry Hogan won the gubernatorial elections with 6% of difference if you do not exclude third party votes. Now THAT is surprising. I wonder what surprises 2016 will have for us.

    I really, really hope we don't have Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee, this may be the only possible way that the Democrats will win, I see even Republicans voting Democratic only not to get him elected.
    If there is a real line separating Democrats and Republicans, he barely is to the Republican side of the line. I think the strongest candidate the Republicans can have is Ted Cruz.
    He is an excellent orator, is a neoconservative so he will surely raise a lot of money due to the Israel Lobby, is a great speaker and he is a white Hispanic.
    This last thing is crucial because allowed him in Texas to appeal both to the Anglo-Americans and to the Hispanics, politics is very tribal in America and he was able to get almost 50% of the Hispanic vote.

    With differential birth-rates and the immigration trends, the Hispanics, who are already 17.1% of the population, in the end of the decade will be at least 20% and the blacks stagnated with 13%.
    Even Republican presidents who won with landslides like Ronald Reagan, managed barely to get 2% of the black vote, the same percentage that David Duke when he got elected representative in Louisiana.
    Trying to appeal for the black vote is not only useless, but a shot in the foot for the Republicans... They never manage to get it and they alienate their own base when they do it. So the future seems to be with Ted Cruz.
    A white Hispanic (he is half-Cuban) that is a Neoconservative seem to be the only logic solution for the Republicans, they attract the Hispanic vote, the white vote and lots of money from the Israel Lobby.

    As Auguste Comte said: "Demography is destiny."

  3. #18
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    People need to vote in the primary elections!!!!! This is why we have such terrible choices - it isn't the party's fault, it is the lazy self absorbed couch potatos who make up this country who love to whine but won't get away from their tv to vote for a candidate.
    "Bother", said Poo, chambering another round.

  4. #19
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    tuna,

    This is why we have such terrible choices - it isn't the party's fault, it is the lazy self absorbed couch potatos who make up this country who love to whine but won't get away from their tv to vote for a candidate.
    well, politicians also have a nasty habit of choosing which voters get to vote for them...
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Whoever gets picked is going to piss off someone. Politics isn't about everyone getting along in Pleasantville, it's much more striking various deals that are just good enough and then letting people get along with their lives.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  6. #21
    Regular Vargas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Whoever gets picked is going to piss off someone. Politics isn't about everyone getting along in Pleasantville, it's much more striking various deals that are just good enough and then letting people get along with their lives.
    The only certain way to failure is trying to please everyone.

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    tuna,

    well, politicians also have a nasty habit of choosing which voters get to vote for them...
    The primaries are all about money, less so about the political machine (cf, Obama / McCain '08; entire GOP field '08 and '12). The only response to that wall of money -- far worse since "Citizens United" [sic] -- is a high voter turnout.

    2014 was a sad surrender to the wall of money.

  8. #23
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    DOR,

    The only response to that wall of money -- far worse since "Citizens United" [sic] -- is a high voter turnout.
    well, i was referring to gerrymandering, which can effectively negate high vote turnout.

    i think they've done some studies where even if the US had a mandatory voting system, the electoral map would not change significantly.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor bonehead's Avatar
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    Oh for the love of God. Someone please put this thread to rest for about 12 months. In the mean time I am wishing someone better than the usual clowns will step out from the shadows and be a viable candidate.
    Removing a single turd from the cesspool doesn't make any difference.

  10. #25
    Regular Vargas's Avatar
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    Another thing that would be great to happen would be the appearance of a Third Party that can at least elect one governor. This would put a lot of pressure in the donkeys and elephants.

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bonehead View Post
    Oh for the love of God. Someone please put this thread to rest for about 12 months. In the mean time I am wishing someone better than the usual clowns will step out from the shadows and be a viable candidate.
    Ah yes, election fatigue sets in after exactly how many days? Just think of all the joyous, fun filled months ahead! All those lovely news reports, caucuses, roundtables, pundits, charts and WAB posts. Sleeping pills anyone?

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    http://libertypell.com/running-for-s...not-president/

    Running for Something But Maybe Not President

    Payback Time for the Girl Who Wouldn’t be my Prom Date

    • Mark Everson, former IRS Commissioner
    • Bob Ehrlich, a former Maryland Governor who lost twice to a former Democratic Governor who will lose to Hillary Clinton if he runs
    • Jim Gilmore, a former Virginia Governor who was crushed in 2008 and then lost a Senate race
    • Peter King, a New York Congressman who hates Ron Paul and Ted Cruz
    • George Pataki, a former New York Governor who would be in the Vermin Supreme category if he wore a boot on his head


    I Don’t Want to be Fired on the Apprentice

    • Donald Trump (62% of voters promise never to vote for him, which is a problem since there are only 100% of voters available)


    Just Making Sure You Still Know Who I Am and Keeping My Speaking Fees High

    • Mitt Romney
    • Ben Carson, a physician at Johns Hopkins and leading expert on extracting feet from mouths


    Actually Running for Pope or Evangelical Equivalent

    • Rick Santorum
    • Mike Huckabee


    I Want to Run a Defense Company

    • John Bolton, hyper hawk, pro gay marriage, former Ambassador to the UN who did not much like the UN
    • Lindsey Graham, though he risks killing the South Carolina primary payday if none of the others waste their time competing against him


    Two- (or maybe Three-) Putt Green, Even if They Did Think 2016 Was Their Year

    • New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, but 2016 is a bridge too far
    • Indiana Governor, Mike Pence, if he ever gets past the Religious Freedom Restoration Act


    Running for Vice President

    • Former Hewlett Packard CEO, Carly Fiorina
    • Louisiana Governor, Bobby Jindal
    • Ohio Governor, John Kasich presently seeking “guidance from God” presumably about making his battleground state sufficiently important to get him the nod
    • Ohio Senator, Rob Portman, if he can nose Kasich out in the battleground race


    Keep My Name in the Paper and Because I Have the Backers

    • Libertarian Kentucky Senator, Rand Paul (and because it is the family business)
    • Texas Senator, Ted Cruz (and because he likes pissing people off)
    • Former Texas Governor, Rick Perry


    Actually Running for President in 2016
    With the 21 time wasters who are running for something but maybe not president now dismissed, you end up with three real candidates:
    • Marco Rubio
    • Jeb Bush
    • Scott Walker

  13. #28
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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  14. #29
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Nominee update! We’re up to 43 declared and suspected perps


    On the left, we have Bernie Sanders leading Martin O’Malley and the still invisible Joe Biden.

    In the middle, Hillary Rodham Clinton is miles ahead of Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee.

    Representing the Old School wing of the Republican Party, we have Scott Walker, Chris Christie, George Pataki, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham.

    The far right is fertile ground for Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal.

    The wing-nuts are led by The Donald Trump and The Two Ricks (Santorum and Perry).

    And tossing peanuts from the cheap seats are Ben Carson, Jeff Boss, Robby Wells, Mark Everson, Jack Fellure, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Bob Ehrlich and Willie Wilson.

    [The list of 14 third party / independent candidates features Roseanne Barr . . . enough said.]

    Amended.
    Last edited by DOR; 18 Jul 15, at 06:30.

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Nominee update! We’re up to 43 declared and suspected perps


    On the left, we have Bernie Sanders leading Martin O’Malley and the still invisible Joe Biden.

    In the middle, Hillary Rodham Clinton is miles ahead of Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee.

    Representing the Old School wing of the Republican Party, we have Scott Walker, Chris Christie, George Pataki, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham.

    The far right is fertile ground for Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal.

    The wing-nuts are led by The Donald Trump and The Two Ricks (Santorum and Perry).

    And tossing peanuts from the cheap seats are Ben Carson, Jeff Boss, Robby Wells, Mark Everson, Jack Fellure, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Bob Ehrlich and Willie Wilson.

    [The list of 14 third party / independent candidates features Roseanne Barr . . . enough said.]
    Good list, though I'm not sure I'd go with your categorizations in every instance. I would have thought Jeb was more 'Old School Republican' than Rubio or even Walker. Really only one serious contender for the Dems (for better or worse), but the GOP field is fun. Choose correctly and they are a big chance of winning the chokkies, choose incorrectly or make the fight too bloody (and on exposed form they are good at this) and they blow it again.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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