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The 2016 US General Election

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  • When Trump was ahead post-RNC it was more than excusable to think it was a temporary blip.

    Right now Hillary looks extremely weak and her position is tenuous. The 538 projection has the race at 272-268. If polling is off even slightly in Trump's favor, Hillary is guaranteed to lose. Even flipping NH would decide the election.

    So, Ted is definitely positioning himself because it looks like Trump really has a shot.

    I agree Monday is do-or-die for the Don. He can easily fuck himself over bad enough that he'll fall to 40 or even sub-40.

    On the other hand, if he does somewhat well and Hillary has another coughing fit, or comes across as a crazy shrew like in that "50 point" video, Hillary is looking at a might tough electoral map.

    Hillary generally does well in these debates, but...she matches volume. Bernie was screaming, so Hillary was screaming. I don't think Hillary can sustain screaming given her current health and time on the trail.
    Then again, I dunno if Trump is gonna scream....because he can't look crazy, lol
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    • GVChamp,

      Right now Hillary looks extremely weak and her position is tenuous. The 538 projection has the race at 272-268.
      what, i don't see that.

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

      292-246, polls only; 287-251, polls+ forecast.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

      Comment


      • Originally posted by citanon View Post
        Late breaking news is that Ted Cruz might endorse Trump.

        Why is Cruz doing a 180? One reason has got to be that Clinton still looks eminently beatable, and increasingly vulnerable as we get to the end if the campaign.

        That's why moderate Republicans like Bush Sr are going public to prop her up, and why right wing Republicans are warming to Trump.

        Also, the 65% estate tax sure doesn't help. No doubt a desperation measure to bring out the Sanders base.


        Trump mainly need to reassure Republican mainstream on national security and respect for professional leadership of the military. Yet he seems incapable of doing so.
        Nah, he just sold his soul for some silver. Cruz likes the limelight just as much as Trump. To be out of it must have been grating on him. To be accused of allowing Trump to fail in November wouldn't be good for his long term image and interests. Now he has covered his six.

        On the other hand a major newspaper in Ohio has come out for Clinton after a century of backing Republicans. At least they could see what he really stands for.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          GVChamp,



          what, i don't see that.

          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

          292-246, polls only; 287-251, polls+ forecast.
          Look at the Snake map.
          "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

          Comment


          • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
            Look at the Snake map.
            Means nothing until the last week of October into first week of November. Have seen nothing that concerns me.

            Comment


            • Over here we'd consider those numbers a statistical dead heat as they are far too close to the margin for error to call an election. Essentially I think your set terms and mid terms mean that you view polls differently over there. Here, snap elections are often favored and called with minimal possible warning. A 2 month election is considered mammoth, a 6 week campaign is considered long. Given out lack of Super PAC's, our spending happens towards the end of the campaign.

              With numbers that close - and not a month away from polling day The script is possibly already written. Trumps appealed to the outer base already, one can talk about what that base is but it's probably irrelevant to his current tack, which is to target minorities or cast doubt. Keep his message positive whilst hers negative (which is actually easy enough to do)

              I don't think the election will be a landslide unless Trump really is unhinged - i.e a propensity to be all the negative things mentioned in the press - whoose material on the matter has speculated as such since day dot. Well - the polls don't match up with that. Long term trends don't account for spot factors, and when one thinks they do, there's ample evidence at least this side of the pacific to throw up the contrarian.

              My personal feelings about Trump have been thrown somewhat since those primaries - his debate body language is absolutely terrible - I haven't seen worse. I can't understand how someone would vote for him after seeing that. I wonder how much that will affect him in those debates. I'm used to seeing irrelevant cliche debates and body language - not that exhibited by Trump.
              Ego Numquam

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              • I think a lot of people loathe Hillary, but they fear Trump. Not so much his ideology (or lack of it) or even appeals to bigotry, but rather that he often comes off as unhinged and quite crazy. Fear of him starting a major war, fear of him ruining the economy with his trade wars , fear of tanking 401K's.

                When Hillary is doing well in these polls and a Trump Presidency looks remote, and Hillary's scandal's dominate the news, these people drift to not voting, voting 3rd party or maybe even voting Trump feeling their vote has no consequence. However, if Trump winning looks a distinct possibility a lot of these people will end up pulling the plug for Hillary on election day.
                Last edited by InExile; 24 Sep 16,, 02:39.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by InExile View Post
                  I think a lot of people loathe Hillary, but they fear Trump. Not so much his ideology (or lack of it) or even appeals to bigotry, but rather that he often comes off as unhinged and quite crazy. Fear of him starting a major war, fear of him ruining the economy with his trade wars , fear of tanking 401K's.

                  When Hillary is doing well in these polls and a Trump Presidency looks remote, and Hillary's scandal's dominate the news, these people drift to not voting, voting 3rd party or maybe even voting Trump feeling their vote has no consequence. However, if Trump winning looks a distinct possibility a lot of these people will end up pulling the plug for Hillary on election day.
                  I believe you are closer to the point. Trump has his hard core supporters who will ignore everything you said about him. Yet that group also presents a hard ceiling of support that can't expand much. Clinton's support is more on the soft side. So people will flit in and out from week to week when asked by polling people. Yet when the moment comes down to this is it, this is the time to be serious, then those soft supporters will say no way to Trump and go for Clinton.

                  Comment


                  • chunder,

                    Over here we'd consider those numbers a statistical dead heat as they are far too close to the margin for error to call an election. Essentially I think your set terms and mid terms mean that you view polls differently over there. Here, snap elections are often favored and called with minimal possible warning. A 2 month election is considered mammoth, a 6 week campaign is considered long. Given out lack of Super PAC's, our spending happens towards the end of the campaign.

                    With numbers that close - and not a month away from polling day The script is possibly already written. Trumps appealed to the outer base already, one can talk about what that base is but it's probably irrelevant to his current tack, which is to target minorities or cast doubt. Keep his message positive whilst hers negative (which is actually easy enough to do)

                    I don't think the election will be a landslide unless Trump really is unhinged - i.e a propensity to be all the negative things mentioned in the press - whoose material on the matter has speculated as such since day dot. Well - the polls don't match up with that. Long term trends don't account for spot factors, and when one thinks they do, there's ample evidence at least this side of the pacific to throw up the contrarian.
                    remember, Obama won by 3.9% and it was considered close to landslide territory.

                    political polarization is such that i don't think we'll go back to the days of election victories like Reagan's 1984 victory (59%-41%, 525-13 EVs) or FDR's 1932 victory (58%-40%, 472-59 EVs). Trump is essentially as bad a political candidate as they come, but I'll be surprised if HRC can win with a margin of over 7-8% and 400+ EVs.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                    • Gennifer Flowers said she will be front row center in the 1st debate.

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                      • Originally posted by Julie View Post
                        Gennifer Flowers said she will be front row center in the 1st debate.
                        So said Mark Cuban. Have already heard that those who run the event will not allow any political posturing to take place using the front row.

                        Comment


                        • ah, donald, the epitome of grace and class.
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                            ah, donald, the epitome of grace and class.
                            Must be something interesting to the debate as they are expecting 100 million viewers. That is Super Bowl numbers. I don't think Americans' #1 issue at this point is "grace and class." There also wasn't much grace and class going on under that presidential desk that Hillary may be sitting at either when Bill was in office.

                            Comment


                            • Julie,

                              I don't think Americans' #1 issue at this point is "grace and class." There also wasn't much grace and class going on under that presidential desk that Hillary may be sitting at either when Bill was in office.
                              and Gennifer Flowers has -what- to do with 'Americans #1 issue'? and what, exactly, does she have to do with HRC and this year's presidential election?

                              if HRC got Ivana Trump or one of Donald's multitude of mistresses to sit there just to shame Donald Trump, his current wife, and his family...what would you be saying about how this reflects on a Presidential nominee's character?

                              ====

                              all of this is just par for course for Donald. everything, from the birther conspiracies, to Ted Cruz's father and wife, to Ghazala Khan, Megyn Kelly, Judge Curiel, John McCain. casually cruel, bullying, crude.

                              note that i'm talking about just personal characteristics here, and not policy. if HRC or Obama was the type of flaming douche-nozzle that Donald is, i'd bloody well call them on it too.
                              Last edited by astralis; 25 Sep 16,, 03:08.
                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                              Comment


                              • Looks like Arcan Cetin an open Hillary supporter will join Omar Mateen as domestic jihadis who said, "I'm with her".

                                Looks like Jennifer Flowers will be at the debate as a tit for tat for Mark Cuban being put in the front row by the Hillary Camp. Of course as usual its only tasteless when Trump does it, not when Hillary does.

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