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Thread: Netanyahu Addresses Congress

  1. #121
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    JAD I take your point.
    Two effects of bibis speech that I would anticipate.

    1- the acceleration of acceptance of the idea that Israel ought to be cut off from unconditional american support. George Friedman made a pretty compelling case for that, and sticking his thumb in Obamas eye won't make bibi more attractive to the proponents of it.

    2- associated with that, the growth of the Iran as potential ally camp. Let's face it, they're doing a lot of heavy lifting in Iraq now. Those contacts would tend to have a natural growth, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see an embassy back in Tehran within a decade.

    I get the feeling that there is a natural drift away from Israel nowadays- it's hard to see what America gets out of the relationship, besides grief, and bibis display sounded more like impotent rage than threat to me.


    My 2 cents.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    And why would I feel bad using the best weapons for the job, that I am legally allowed to use because they violated the NPT?
    Because the NPT automatically becomes void once the first nukes are used. The NPT is a peacetime treaty. The treaty has zero authority once nukes are used.

    That's how both the US and the USSR get away with training non-nuclear weapons allies to deliver their nuclear weapons. By treaty, no one can give nukes to non-nuclear weapons states. But the treaty is void once nuclear war starts and hence, Canadians, Turks, Italians, Germans, Dutch, and Belgians would start throwing American nukes at those Poles, East Germans, Hungarians, and Czechs throwing nukes back at us.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 08 Mar 15, at 05:50.
    Chimo

  3. #123
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Heh. It comes from Memri so all disclaimers etc about accuracy lest it be viewed as to be unfashionably biased and punishable from the left/liberal/progressive perspective......

    "In a move unprecedented in U.S. political history, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu received an invitation from the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Republican John Boehner, to address both houses of Congress... Netanyahu will devote his speech to expressing his firm objection to the signing of an agreement between the Obama administration and Iran on the nuclear issue. He hopes to convince the Congress members that he is right, which could delay the agreement.
    "President Obama and his administration are clearly furious. Not because Netanyahu is intervening in an important matter that Obama hopes will bring him personal glory, but because House Speaker [John Boehner] did not consult with Obama before inviting Netanyahu, and Obama considers this a breach of established protocol.
    "This unprecedented tension between the Obama administration and Netanyahu is another in a long series of tense and unfriendly episodes between Obama and Netanyahu. But the tension has never before reached this level, as reflected in statements by National Security Advisor Susan Rice, who said that Netanyahu's conduct was unacceptable and even destructive...
    "The Obama administration does not suffice with condemning Netanyahu's visit. Obama has announced that he will not meet with Netanyahu on the grounds that he does not meet with state leaders a short while before elections take place in their countries, [though] elections in Israel will take place weeks after the visit!! Likewise, American Vice President Joseph Biden, whose presence at Netanyahu's speech in Congress is expected by virtue of his constitutional role as Senate president, announced that he would be on a trip abroad [on the day of] Netanyahu's speech!! U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also said he would be in Switzerland meeting with the Iranians on the nuclear dossier and therefore would not be able to attend Netanyahu's speech!! What angers the Obama administration even more is that Netanyahu refused an official request by several Democratic Congressmen to meet with him during [his] visit!!…
    "I will conclude by saying the following: Since Obama is the godfather of the prefabricated revolutions in the Arab world, and since he is the ally of political Islam, [which is] the caring mother of [all] the terrorist organizations, and since he is working to sign an agreement with Iran that will come at the expense of the U.S.'s longtime allies in the Gulf, I am very glad of Netanyahu's firm stance and [his decision] to speak against the nuclear agreement at the American Congress despite the Obama administration's anger and fury. I believe that Netanyahu's conduct will serve our interests, the people of the Gulf, much more than the foolish behavior of one of the worst American presidents. Do you agree with me?"
    If you'd told me even three years ago the House of Saud would approve pro-Israel/anti-US opinions to be printed I'd have said you were on crack. So Egypt being pissed off with the US is already a given. Israel of course is now pissed off as well. Qatar and The UAE have been pissed off for a while and of course Iran has hated the US from the get-go of the current theocracy.
    So does the US have any friends at all in the Middle East? Apparently not, when even Saudi Arabia is slagging them off and moving to align itself with Israel.
    Last edited by Parihaka; 08 Mar 15, at 10:31.
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  4. #124
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    That's supposed to be good,isnt it?The ME starting to work together.They didn't while American influence was high almighty.

    Again,what has Israel ever done to US to deserve such unconditional support?

    I understand people have sympathies.Some support the Israelis,others the Pals etc... But objectively,who has/secures oil and who dies along/for Western interests?
    Last edited by Mihais; 08 Mar 15, at 11:09.
    Those who know don't speak
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  5. #125
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    That's supposed to be good,isnt it?The ME starting to work together.They didn't while American influence was high almighty.
    Good or bad I'm not sure, though I suspect bad as it increases the likelihood of a transnational Shia v Sunni civil war don't you think?
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Again,what has Israel ever done to US to deserve such unconditional support?
    Nothing, I don't believe they deserve unconditional US support. Up until the last few years the US has managed to maintain a hegemony, thereby keeping the peace. I suspect that hegemony is now gone.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    I understand people have sympathies.Some support the Israelis,others the Pals etc... But objectively,who has/secures oil and who dies along/for Western interests?
    Personal sympathies or antipathies are irrelevant. Don't you find it fascinating to see the House of Saud praising Netanyahu? They do after all want access to nukes as they believe Iran will soon have them. The only real thing of interest to me when you take Israel out of the equation is will the Saudi choose Egypt or Turkey as a partner? Turkey is the obvious choice but is dead set against Egypt as a partner, and Erdogan is widely regarded throughout the middle east as a dangerous buffoon. Perhaps an externally funded coup?
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  6. #126
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    If you'd told me even three years ago the House of Saud would approve pro-Israel/anti-US opinions to be printed I'd have said you were on crack.
    maybe they are discovering freedom of speech

    i have signature ready

    Only Bibi can go to Riyadh, future Vulcan saying

    So does the US have any friends at all in the Middle East? Apparently not, when even Saudi Arabia is slagging them off and moving to align itself with Israel.
    Oh so US just sit this one out and let them play with Daish by themselves then.

    wait, they want the US to do this as well too

    all this like not like is meaningless, bottom line is they joined at the hip to the us whether they like it or not.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Mar 15, at 12:34.

  7. #127
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Oh, and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is being reported as dead. Well it never rains but it pours
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    i have signature all ready

    Only Bibi can go to Riyadh, future Vulcan saying


    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Oh so US just sit this one out and let them play with Daish by themselves then.

    wait, they want the US to do this as well too

    all this link not like is meaningless, bottom line is relations between us & middle east allies are here to stay.
    I think what I'm saying is the US doesn't have a choice but to sit this one out. Much like the announced US inspired proposed attack on Mosul morphing into the actual Iran supplied and lead attack on Tikrit. I suspect the White House didn't get a say in this.
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  9. #129
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    To be fair,I don't believe in ME living in peace and harmony.The House of Saud praising an Israeli is the same as the French monarchy being supported by Prussians and Austrians.A proof of revolution going on in the ME.
    As for the Shia vs Sunni,I only care about the fate of the few Christians left and the historical artefacts.Right now,those are better with the Shia.

    Egypt has solved none of its problems.Erdogan happens to rule over the most powerful muslim nation.He may be a clown,but he's one with the best economy and the best army.And once enough chaos will be sown,he may be the one they call to restore order.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    To be fair,I don't believe in ME living in peace and harmony.The House of Saud praising an Israeli is the same as the French monarchy being supported by Prussians and Austrians.A proof of revolution going on in the ME.
    As for the Shia vs Sunni,I only care about the fate of the few Christians left and the historical artefacts.Right now,those are better with the Shia.

    Egypt has solved none of its problems.Erdogan happens to rule over the most powerful muslim nation.He may be a clown,but he's one with the best economy and the best army.And once enough chaos will be sown,he may be the one they call to restore order.
    Well certainly from my own country's personal experience the Turks are the most likely to put up a good fight, and with their own plus Saudi Arabia's weaponry and cash are likely to do that. I do care about the likelyhood of a conflict because of the damage it will cause to worldwide prosperity, but I do get your point about not really wishing them peace and harmony.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  11. #131
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    Name me one ally who got the warm fuzzies from Obama.
    Chimo

  12. #132
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    But Obama and other world leaders cannot be that naive, can they? They have advisers, intelligence assets and scholars around them to explain to them the Arab-Persian mindset and to steer them in the right direction. So, how can Bibi claim to see what we don't see?

    Anyway, here's what is likely to happen. Iran will agree to a deal, with some provisions now known and some not (Obama hinted at that). Obama, in accordance with the constitution, will submit it to the Senate for 'advice and consent'. The Senate will send it to committee. Hearings will ensue. Meanwhile pro and con organizations will take their case public. The media will have a field day. Senators will wear a path to the White House for meetings with the president.

    In the end, the Senate will consent to the treaty. Why? Here are some of the reasons one comes across reading articles and speeches:
    1) Russia, China and perhaps other countries will very likely withdraw support for sanctions;
    2) Iran is already major player in the ME and won't change even if sanctions continue;
    3) the alternative may be war with Iran which would further deteriorate US influence in the ME;
    4) Iran has rights under the NPT like all other member nations and to deny them would cause them to quit the NPT leaving us more blind to their refinement activities;
    5) Iran may increase its support for groups threatening Israel and US interest in the ME;
    6) and generally Iran will become more of the problem and less of the solution in striking a balance of power in the region

    There are probably more reasons. Add to them if you know others and knock down those you think are weak or ridiculous. Explaining your reasons would be good, too.
    Elected leaders can be extremely na´ve. FDR and Stalin comes to mind first, but you supposedly had a Ronald Reagan who didn't seriously consider MAD until Able Archer. Obama himself made a huge gaffe when he said he would go to Iran to negotiate without preconditions. That was during his campaign season....on the domestic front, he also thought he could run Health Care Reform without implementing a health care mandate.

    Elected leaders can be really, really dumb. It's not a partisan issue, just what happens with normal people who are REQUIRED to make decisions/discuss things they don't know much about. Also they can easily surround themselves with a dysfunctional group of advisers, or make them dysfunctional through bad management.

    Why there will be a deal: both sides WANT a deal and it's preferable to the status quo. Non-proliferation is a key US objective, and that's a bi-partisan issue. We spent many years crafting this sanctions net. The first Security Resolution was passed in 2006, the comprehensive sanctions pushed by Obama didn't start going into place until 2009. That reflects a LOT of political will spent, and the political will to sustain these sanctions doesn't last forever. The twilight years of the Iraqi sanctions regime involved a lot of nations asking for sanctions to be lightened significantly. The apparent failure of the Iraqi sanctions, along with the massive human cost, has left a sour taste in most nation's mouths WRT sanctions.
    Since Iran looks like it will play ball on negotiations, everyone would rather take a chance rather than risk a repeat of the Iraq debacle. And I don't mean the war: the entire policy towards Iraq after 1991 was a damn failure.
    On the Iranian side, yeah, they can still be a player in the Middle East, despite the sanctions, but right now they are close to the most heavily sanctioned nation in the world. The International Community is PISSED at them, and that includes Russia, China, India, whatever, all those guys would rather play ball with the US rather than Iran on this issue. That is an untenable position: if heavy sanctions continue on Iran for a decade, they'll be crippled. Their oil infrastructure is already tanking for lack of spare parts, they've had to decommission wells, their civilian airline fleet is falling apart. Obviously the World doesn't WANT to ruin them, but if Iran misbehaves, sanctions will still continue. And even if Russia sells them weapons, doesn't matter, they are under heavy financial sanctions that make it impossible for them to get financing or sell oil.
    See: Russia, right now.

    It's in both sides interests to strike a deal, and both sides are showing a lot of effort into making a deal. So....you'd expect a deal. The sanctions definitely made a difference, you don't see Iran coming to the table in a serious way until those sanctions hit and Iran gets rocked by the 2009 protests. They know their position is untenable.

    Whether it's a good deal? Well, who the hell knows until we actually see the details? The interim "deal" we got last year (2 years ago?) wasn't that bad at all, so we should express a little faith in our negotiators until proven otherwise. Bibi just whines and should probably be ignored. He wants to wrap all these issues together, when they shouldn't be: deal with the Iranian nukes, as a stand-alone issue, because it IS a stand-alone issue from the POV of the international community. Why the hell should Russia and China care that Iran and Israel don't like each other and Iran has a legal ballistic missile program?

    Back to the rabbit hole....

    EDIT:
    So does the US have any friends at all in the Middle East? Apparently not, when even Saudi Arabia is slagging them off and moving to align itself with Israel.
    That's a "cut your nose to spite your face" move. Both of those nations are pretty much fucked without US support.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 08 Mar 15, at 15:26.
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  13. #133
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    I have just one question

    1) Obama is saying that the deal with Iran is an amazing deal. At the same time, he also said that Netanyahu shouldn't reveal any details of the deal. If the deal is such a great deal, then why is Obama so scared of details of the deal getting out?
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  14. #134
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    Domestic opposition within both the West and Iran to scuttle the deal.
    Chimo

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    I have just one question

    1) Obama is saying that the deal with Iran is an amazing deal. At the same time, he also said that Netanyahu shouldn't reveal any details of the deal. If the deal is such a great deal, then why is Obama so scared of details of the deal getting out?
    That is just standard practice before a deal is unveiled. The fun and games can begin after.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Well certainly from my own country's personal experience the Turks are the most likely to put up a good fight, and with their own plus Saudi Arabia's weaponry and cash are likely to do that.
    If Turks become the most powerful then the Saudis will be their rivals. I would say it began when AKP started tilting towards the islamists in egypt. Who are no longer there and the egyptians are back in bed with the saudis at the expense of their own people.

    More points in Israel's favour. All that is needed is a catalyst. Will the deal do that or not remains to be seen.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    I think what I'm saying is the US doesn't have a choice but to sit this one out. Much like the announced US inspired proposed attack on Mosul morphing into the actual Iran supplied and lead attack on Tikrit. I suspect the White House didn't get a say in this.
    yes but how effective has IRGC been so far in Iraq ?

    maybe its early days but these guys made waves against israel in lebanon and tactically against the US. So far the results of IRGC contributions against Da'ish are yet to be seen.

    Is that a bad thing ? if they start doing more then the arabs will fear (again) that they will take over Iraq.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Mar 15, at 16:56.

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