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Thread: Stratfor's Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

  1. #1
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Stratfor's Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

    An interesting analysis that discusses trends and predictions in defense spending, political attitudes, economic patterns, and foreign policy for every major player on the world stage.

    You can read it by signing up at www.stratfor.com or by perusing the attached PDF.

    Attachment 39283

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    I agree with the general trend, though there are some pretty weird details.

    The 15 countries seem to have been selected on rather random criteria for determining future economic growth, and have vastly different economies.

    The part about Poland taking back "lost territories" is also rather odd, and the hard power capacity for Poland leading such an Eastern European power bloc isn't really there.

    Friedman oddly flogs the long discredited China "coast vs. interior" dialectic, though granted, he caveats it with skepticism.

    Doesn't seem to mention India very much.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    Doesn't seem to mention India very much.
    We will make it in the next report. India provided it gets its act together is ten years away from being of use to anybody

    Whenever a leading global power enters into a relationship with a strategic partner, it is in the global power’s interest to make the partner as economically vigorous as possible, both to stabilize its society and to make it capable of building a military force.Poland will be in that position with the United States, as will Romania. Washington has made its interest in the region obvious.
    So the report is about rise of Turkey, Poland, Romania & Japan and decline of Germany & Russia.

    America's biggest fear in the last century ?

    a force – between German capital and technology and Russian resources and manpower – capable of threatening American interests. Therefore, in World War I, World War II and the Cold War, the United States was instrumental in preventing this from occurring.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Feb 15, at 19:10.

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    Wishlist.

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Oh if someone had 2020 vision, we would have a nice neat forecast for the next 5 years
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    The part about Poland taking back "lost territories" is also rather odd
    I think they're talking economically, culturally and by sphere of influence, given that anything beyond that would mean dividing up Ukraine between Russia and Poland. Although if you go through it, it's more like they want Poland to annex Ukraine and then expand its sphere of influence into Russia. Along the lines of just forgetting about anything in the 250 years between 1772 and 2022.

    It's all a bit ridiculous. The Republic of Karelia seeking to rejoin Finland? There's 82% Russians living there, and most of the rest are Belarussians and Karelians (not Finns). An economic rise of Romania and Poland on US money making them a force to be reckoned with? At best, they'll be the next emerging export market for Germany. If that investment thing works at all, considering the brain drain of the last decade shifting literally millions of Romanians and Polish into more prosperous areas of the European Union. Georgia and Azerbaijan joining some pro-US Eastern European power bloc? Yeah, like 2008 is decades ago. "By the end of this decade Turkey will emerge as the major regional power"? Seriously? I think someone should tell Stratfor what Turkey has been for the last roundabout three to five decades.

    What's interesting is the rhethoric used throughout it, shifting "Europe" unconsciously further East in order to emphasize the importance of their prophesized power bloc in "Central Europe", or similarly shifting "Asia" south to completely disregard Siberia and make China just some country on the fringes of it. Funny also how the whole thing basically forgets Africa or South America even exist at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    The 15 countries seem to have been selected on rather random criteria for determining future economic growth, and have vastly different economies.
    The "Post-China" countries? Those rather seem to be selected based on how easily their economy can be taken over given proper stimulus in the right places at the right times, while providing a relatively large base population under relatively heavy-handed governments that mostly don't shy away from getting people in line the hard way...

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Oh if someone had 2020 vision, we would have a nice neat forecast for the next 5 years
    I'll do it, just a sec....

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    There few basic assumptions that make this analysis wrong. They don't count it following factors.
    1.Growing population in the less developing nations.
    2.Population decline the more developed nations.
    3.Diminishing returns of technology.
    4.Peak oil and gas.
    5.Simple fact that you can't run linear paradigm in a limited setting.
    6.Climate change that doesn't favor agriculture.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post

    The "Post-China" countries? Those rather seem to be selected based on how easily their economy can be taken over given proper stimulus in the right places at the right times, while providing a relatively large base population under relatively heavy-handed governments that mostly don't shy away from getting people in line the hard way...
    Mexico has pretty much nothing in common with Uganda.

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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    If you can make money in both,there's commonality enough.

    If I were to invest,I'd rather go to Uganda.Cheaper bribes and less ferocious mobsters.

    Kato,don't know about the Poles,but our brain drain can be reduced or reversed.People are willing to return if they can notice an improvement.And they return with some bucks,but even more they return with experience.
    The whole grand strategy of the last decades of the various sorts of commies has been ''let's drive out everybody that's industrious and isn't dependent on the state''.The whole election of the last year has been,in essence,a fight between the nation and it's ruling elite to reverse that.

    As for Stratfor on Russia,we pretty much laughed about it.Mostly American wishfull thinking.What the heck advancing Eastwards means for Russian power?In real terms it means nothing.Assuming Poland takes W. Ukraine under its wing and we take Moldova.We're better long term,but in the meantime we're busy making them look like habitable places.And we barely touch the borders of Russki Mir .With or without those lands,Russia is the same.Russian influence can even rise.Russian pipelines still bypass those lands and no support for any enemy of Russia can come from both Poland and Romania.

    A Russia under threat from elsewhere can even begin a historical reconciliation with Poland, Romania and the Baltic states.
    Last edited by Mihais; 02 Mar 15, at 21:29.
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    Idi Amin vs Mao Tse-Tung ... well, Mao never ate anyone.
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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    With a company of mercs,err,contractors, you can do whatever you want in Africa.
    Don't know about the bribes in China,but they can at least govern and police themselves.That can turn into a downside sometimes.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    The whole thing was shift from manufacture/industry to a services and at the end to banking sector. From productive realm to the virtual realm.

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    The part that made me laugh so hard was "international capitalism requires low wage,high growth region....". Oh my, what a bunch of delusional people. This is a burst economical thinking that goes along lines that describe the ideal man for a girl here. He needs to be and to have:
    1.He needs to be rich.
    2.He needs to be macho
    3.He needs to have high social status.

    And he needs to be between 20-24 years old. Cosmopolitan logic, in short.
    Last edited by Versus; 02 Mar 15, at 22:02.

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Post-China economies, that happen to be located in the region that is most seismically active and prone to catastrophic typhoons that can wipe out entire factories in a matter of hours, together with the workforce and their families. Those economies have iron hand govt that ensure low wages. So, basically we will have one iron hand giga mega govt, aka China that supports smaller iron hands so that they can become China's Chinas. Also most of those economies are located on islands.

    Africa. You want to introduce "Amanda,Carrie,Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte" logic to a countries that have serious AIDS problems??? First thing that will happen is that as those countries develop, they will draw population form other surrounding countries, you will have huge population migration, crime and of course diseases that are not flue.

    So basically a straight line,from the shores of Africa,across oceans to the shores of Peru and Mexico which will be hubs. Areas connected are prone to diseases and natural disasters and driven by the logic of low wage and growth. In cultures that have strong collective memory of colonial governance ?

    The potential for the disaster is mind blowing.
    Last edited by Versus; 02 Mar 15, at 23:27.

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