Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 31 to 43 of 43

Thread: Stratfor's Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    4,007
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Anyone have a copy of the previous forecast, about what would happen in this decade?
    They do one every five years. In text form without pretty pictures:

    1995-2005: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/19..._fragmentation
    2000-2010: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/20...ditional-world
    2005-2015: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/de...cast-2005-2015
    2010-2020: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/de...cast-2010-2020

    One simple example: The last one in 2010 spelled the doom of Mexico due to rapid aging of the population, and saw its sole economic future in post-gangland cocaine trade (seriously). The current one sees them as one of the countries replacing China due to availability of cheap labour in conventional industry...

  2. #32
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,099
    These guys need only a software upgrade.





    Thing is,robots will only help humans,whether in economy or on the battlefield.There is way better to just put an exoskeleton suit on a soldier,than to rely on a pile of scrap iron and AI.
    You get the strength,agility and endurance that equal any machine,but you still have a human brain running the show.The real path to success is having men and machines work in tandem.Is not a question of one versus the other.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  3. #33
    Military Professional
    Join Date
    06 Aug 03
    Posts
    29,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    These guys need only a software upgrade.
    Software upgrades cannot overcome hardware limitations. And there is only so much hardware anticipation you can do before the technology surpasses the current hardware. That was what the Japanese had learned. Do you have any idea how many APPLE IIs were dumped after the XT came out?
    Chimo

  4. #34
    Military Enthusiast Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    15 Aug 03
    Posts
    5,349
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Software upgrades cannot overcome hardware limitations. And there is only so much hardware anticipation you can do before the technology surpasses the current hardware. That was what the Japanese had learned. Do you have any idea how many APPLE IIs were dumped after the XT came out?
    Still I would encourage robotic technology over human powered repetition labor. At least, the workforce would be highly trained and skilled as opposed to being unskilled. It translates into higher standards of living and a better tax base.

    And robotics ensure a high quality of manufacturing and precision and avoids the problem that arises with manual labor. I suspect that the benefits of robotics outweighs the costs of robotic from a long term economic view.

  5. #35
    Military Professional
    Join Date
    06 Aug 03
    Posts
    29,353
    Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
    Chimo

  6. #36
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,099
    Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  7. #37
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
    Join Date
    03 Jul 06
    Location
    Belgrade
    Posts
    2,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
    People don't need jobs, if they have robot money printing press.

  8. #38
    Military Enthusiast Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    15 Aug 03
    Posts
    5,349
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
    I am not saying that they are mutually exclusive. I do agree that you need both. You need people to maintain, supervise, and upgrade the robots. It is vastly better than hiring people to do the repetitive jobs or drudgery work.

  9. #39
    Military Enthusiast Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    15 Aug 03
    Posts
    5,349
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
    Then you can say goodbye innovation. Back in that time, people were expected to do everything and be jack of all trades and master of none. That slowed down innovation tremendously and kept the economy and production of goods to a very limited set of choices. No, we need diversification, specialized fields. There will always be new fields to open and explore that requires human participation. For instance, robots cannot innovate or improve or self learn at the same rate as humans can. Robots can only master a certain set of skills within a period of time and achieve nearly perfection but they can never take it to a higher level. Only humans with their imagination, ingenuity, innovation, and the mother of all inventions - necessity can.

  10. #40
    Military Professional
    Join Date
    06 Aug 03
    Posts
    29,353
    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    For instance, robots cannot innovate or improve or self learn at the same rate as humans can.
    Yet.
    Chimo

  11. #41
    Military Enthusiast Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    15 Aug 03
    Posts
    5,349
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Yet.
    That kind of accomplishment will not happen in this century but the next century. No way humans can match the work and results of hundred of millions of years of evolution, Nature's work, in a century. That just doesn't happen. Now that gives humans and their civilization a century to get their standard of living to a position where with the advent of viable AI, there will be a small portion of the population living in abject poverty or uneducated. Subsistence farming or living would be downsized to a very small portion of the human population.

  12. #42
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
    Join Date
    03 Jul 06
    Location
    Belgrade
    Posts
    2,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
    "We borrow money that we don't have in order to buy things we don't need, so that we would be liked by the people that hate us", definition of consumer logic in Serbia.

  13. #43
    New Member
    Join Date
    25 Sep 15
    Posts
    1
    The last Third Wolrd Forecast by Juan Antonio Falcón Blasco https://www.dictus-publishing.eu/cat...oblemas-de-hoy

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Successor to F-22 by 2025
    By biteasaur in forum Military Aviation
    Replies: 51
    Last Post: 18 Mar 10,, 00:48
  2. My future RN vessel- 2025
    By Silent Hunter in forum Naval Warfare
    Replies: 102
    Last Post: 08 Feb 10,, 19:19
  3. World's Ocean forces in 2025?
    By dark-alias in forum Naval Warfare
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11 May 08,, 03:13
  4. India, US team up for cyclone forecast
    By Jay in forum Science & Technology
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 26 Jun 04,, 23:33

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •