Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Stratfor's Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    Anyone have a copy of the previous forecast, about what would happen in this decade?
    They do one every five years. In text form without pretty pictures:

    1995-2005: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/19..._fragmentation
    2000-2010: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/20...ditional-world
    2005-2015: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/de...cast-2005-2015
    2010-2020: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/de...cast-2010-2020

    One simple example: The last one in 2010 spelled the doom of Mexico due to rapid aging of the population, and saw its sole economic future in post-gangland cocaine trade (seriously). The current one sees them as one of the countries replacing China due to availability of cheap labour in conventional industry...

    Comment


    • #32
      These guys need only a software upgrade.





      Thing is,robots will only help humans,whether in economy or on the battlefield.There is way better to just put an exoskeleton suit on a soldier,than to rely on a pile of scrap iron and AI.
      You get the strength,agility and endurance that equal any machine,but you still have a human brain running the show.The real path to success is having men and machines work in tandem.Is not a question of one versus the other.
      Those who know don't speak
      He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Mihais View Post
        These guys need only a software upgrade.
        Software upgrades cannot overcome hardware limitations. And there is only so much hardware anticipation you can do before the technology surpasses the current hardware. That was what the Japanese had learned. Do you have any idea how many APPLE IIs were dumped after the XT came out?
        Chimo

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          Software upgrades cannot overcome hardware limitations. And there is only so much hardware anticipation you can do before the technology surpasses the current hardware. That was what the Japanese had learned. Do you have any idea how many APPLE IIs were dumped after the XT came out?
          Still I would encourage robotic technology over human powered repetition labor. At least, the workforce would be highly trained and skilled as opposed to being unskilled. It translates into higher standards of living and a better tax base.

          And robotics ensure a high quality of manufacturing and precision and avoids the problem that arises with manual labor. I suspect that the benefits of robotics outweighs the costs of robotic from a long term economic view.

          Comment


          • #35
            Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • #36
              Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
              Those who know don't speak
              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
                People don't need jobs, if they have robot money printing press.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  Actually, you need both. People need jobs in order to pay for the things the robots are making.
                  I am not saying that they are mutually exclusive. I do agree that you need both. You need people to maintain, supervise, and upgrade the robots. It is vastly better than hiring people to do the repetitive jobs or drudgery work.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                    Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
                    Then you can say goodbye innovation. Back in that time, people were expected to do everything and be jack of all trades and master of none. That slowed down innovation tremendously and kept the economy and production of goods to a very limited set of choices. No, we need diversification, specialized fields. There will always be new fields to open and explore that requires human participation. For instance, robots cannot innovate or improve or self learn at the same rate as humans can. Robots can only master a certain set of skills within a period of time and achieve nearly perfection but they can never take it to a higher level. Only humans with their imagination, ingenuity, innovation, and the mother of all inventions - necessity can.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                      For instance, robots cannot innovate or improve or self learn at the same rate as humans can.
                      Yet.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Yet.
                        That kind of accomplishment will not happen in this century but the next century. No way humans can match the work and results of hundred of millions of years of evolution, Nature's work, in a century. That just doesn't happen. Now that gives humans and their civilization a century to get their standard of living to a position where with the advent of viable AI, there will be a small portion of the population living in abject poverty or uneducated. Subsistence farming or living would be downsized to a very small portion of the human population.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                          Thing is,we may see a fundamental shift in both mindset and need.The idea that people need jobs to earn money came to life when self reliance became unsustainable.Before that,little money was needed,mainly for luxury goods.
                          "We borrow money that we don't have in order to buy things we don't need, so that we would be liked by the people that hate us", definition of consumer logic in Serbia.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            The last Third Wolrd Forecast by Juan Antonio Falcón Blasco https://www.dictus-publishing.eu/cat...oblemas-de-hoy

                            Comment

                            Working...
                            X